I agree with the reasoning here. Seems it would be hard for the Rebs to match the same intensity they had last week. Meanwhile, this is the only game State has cared about for a while, and they will actually give a genuine effort. Only question is, how truly bad is State. Do they have the talent to make a game of it?
I solved this one in September. When the books were offering "games of the year" with lines for games later in the season, I made two wagers. One was FSU over Notre Dame. I got them at -8, and I think the spread turned out to be -13. Of course, they won so big any line would have won.
The other game I took in September was Ole Miss over MSU at -4. I only wish I'd put more money on it.