Had ambitions of more plays -- but the chalk is very heavy this time around, guess the linesmakers have caught onto the fact that these favorites train four years straight for these races and upsets are rare.
Booked two plays for Athens:
Ian Crocker (-200) to win the 100m butterfly....no one in the world can match Crockers raw speed off the blocks for the first 50 meters, and Phelps is going to have a hell of a time catching him on the second lap. Crocker dominated Phelps from the start of this race at the trials, ahead of him by almost a half a second at the first wall, and is a perfect 3-0 vs Phelps head on in this event. Crocker ended up breaking the world record and beating Phelps by .40 at the trials, which in my opinion is too much of a gap for Phelps to make up in a few weeks time. Phelps might be trying to make history, but Crocker has trained for Athens to take gold in one event, and he's not going to disappoint here.
Alexandr Popov (+400) to win the 50m freestyle....I don't think I've ever seen the current world record holder come at such a nice price, and I'm jumping all over it. I think this line is due to on over-reaction to Popov's age, but there are some factors I like. Obviously, he's the world record holder and no one in the world is close to his mark of 21.64 that he did in 2000. Gary Hall, the favorite in this event, went a 21.91 at the US Trials last month for a frame of reference. Also, I think this line is an over-reaction to the fact that he got 6th in this event in Sydney, which was mostly because of one of the worst finishes I've ever seen. The knock on Popov has been that he hasn't improved at all since 2000 and actually has slipped, but so has Hall and the other main players in this heat. (I expect this event to be one of the slower swimming races of the meet in comparison to former Olympics) Popov won the 50 at the 2003 worlds, and dominated this event at the 1992 and 1996 Olympics. He's made is very clear that this is his last meet, and this will probably be his last race, and I wouldn't bet against him going out as a winner. The mens 50 this year is going to be one of the few events were the world record will most likely not be broken, and I like Popov's chances as much as anyone elses in this race. He's still got the best start in the world, and when the race only takes 21 seconds sometimes that's all you need. At this price I can't pass this chance.
Good luck to all with your wagers, and enjoy the games!
Booked two plays for Athens:
Ian Crocker (-200) to win the 100m butterfly....no one in the world can match Crockers raw speed off the blocks for the first 50 meters, and Phelps is going to have a hell of a time catching him on the second lap. Crocker dominated Phelps from the start of this race at the trials, ahead of him by almost a half a second at the first wall, and is a perfect 3-0 vs Phelps head on in this event. Crocker ended up breaking the world record and beating Phelps by .40 at the trials, which in my opinion is too much of a gap for Phelps to make up in a few weeks time. Phelps might be trying to make history, but Crocker has trained for Athens to take gold in one event, and he's not going to disappoint here.
Alexandr Popov (+400) to win the 50m freestyle....I don't think I've ever seen the current world record holder come at such a nice price, and I'm jumping all over it. I think this line is due to on over-reaction to Popov's age, but there are some factors I like. Obviously, he's the world record holder and no one in the world is close to his mark of 21.64 that he did in 2000. Gary Hall, the favorite in this event, went a 21.91 at the US Trials last month for a frame of reference. Also, I think this line is an over-reaction to the fact that he got 6th in this event in Sydney, which was mostly because of one of the worst finishes I've ever seen. The knock on Popov has been that he hasn't improved at all since 2000 and actually has slipped, but so has Hall and the other main players in this heat. (I expect this event to be one of the slower swimming races of the meet in comparison to former Olympics) Popov won the 50 at the 2003 worlds, and dominated this event at the 1992 and 1996 Olympics. He's made is very clear that this is his last meet, and this will probably be his last race, and I wouldn't bet against him going out as a winner. The mens 50 this year is going to be one of the few events were the world record will most likely not be broken, and I like Popov's chances as much as anyone elses in this race. He's still got the best start in the world, and when the race only takes 21 seconds sometimes that's all you need. At this price I can't pass this chance.
Good luck to all with your wagers, and enjoy the games!
