Olympics Mens-Basketball Skewed Line

[Patz]

Hey all,
Ive been following your boxing pick and such for awhile here and thank BoxLocks and all the other contributors. I was hoping to pay some of you back by giving you a heads up on a very very skewed line on the mens basketball olympic team to win the gold in Athens. All of the sportsbooks ive looked at so far have the US to win at somewhere between -300 and -500. One of the sportsbooks I use has the US to win at -150. Ive already grabbed myself some action on this. I don;t want to flood the wager so if you are interested in knowing the sportsbook just email me at [edit out email]. Take care all.
-Mike

 

[MadJack]

it's not good practice to bet into a known bad line because the book will only cancel the bets anyway and flag the bettor as a scammer.

if the book is doing this on purpose (and many have) they are scammers, ESPECIALLY if they cancel the bets AFTER the outcome.

no win situation.

please don not post your email on the forums.

thanks,

jack@madjacksports.com

 

[Patz]

Im pretty sure its legit in this case

Im pretty sure its legit in this case

Generally I would agree with you as far as a book rarely honroing a "bad line" However this is a little different. The sportsbook I use is what is known as a "sports exchange" The way it works is the betters simply exchange wagers with each other instead of the book. For instance if I take the braves to win their division at -150, someone needs to take the braves not to win their division at +150. The book makes its money by changing a very small "trading fee" which guarentees them a profit. I have deposited and withdraw3 both to my creditcard and neteller with no problems so I am pretty confident that the book is legit. Sorry for breaking the email posting rules, i didnt realize it at the time. Ill post the name of book here if it is allowed but i don't know if madjack rules probiting naming books that arent recommended. Anyhow take care,
-Mike

 

[MadJack]

you can post the name of the book. i understand completely now after our email exchange.

what i don't understand is why someone would make a bet like that when they can do better elsewhere. why?

not you, them.

why?

 

[Patz]

The Book, Tradesports often has lines that are different from the "average book's" line. This book being as much like a stock market as a betting site has many people that attempt to make quick gains on a item in the news. When the USA line originally came out 2 days ago on tradesports it was -200. Then the USA barely got by Germany and people figured the line would drop further so they took the USA not to win hoping to buy the wager back at a lower price. What i mean is if I take the US not to win the gold at +200 and the line drops to even money I can get rid of my wager at the lower price, "kinda like hedging on other books" and make a easy profit. This causes the lines on the book to be much more liquid and responsive to news events than traditional books. I hope this explains it. Personally being a former daytrader I find tradesports to be much more interesting and profitable for me than traditional books. Anyhow take care all.
-Mike

 

[yyz]

Since the USA will not win the gold, even -150 is "too much".

 

[Patz]

That matter is up to debate for sure, but the odds of them winning are not -150, they are much higher. If they gell, its unlikely they will lose.
-Mike

 

[nehpets]

agree the -250's are all bad lines, should be +250

 

[alb]

I'll take -150 with every penny. The USA are just messing around and having fun. The exhibition loss and buzzer beater win were great in keeping the odds low instead of the -700 it should be. Like baseball and football........exhibition games don't mean anything.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I think there's a very good chance USA will take an early exit. Not because they looked bad in the exhibition games but because they don't have a pure point guard like Kidd or Stockton whose main goal is to pass the ball and create scoring opportunities for others. Nor do we have any pure outside shooters like Peirce or Miller, its seems like this team is made up of mostly slashers who specialize in taking it to the hole. The problem is, most of the other teams will be playing a 2-3 zone like Italy did. No matter how athletic our players are, the zone will keep them from getting to the hole and will cause excessive turnovers.

Btw, this is far from our "best" representing this year...no Shaq...no Kobe...no KG and as I said before no Kidd and no Pierce.

 

[kickserv]

I think -150 is about right........I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if USA don't win the gold...but hey what do I know..........

 

[Patz]

This is the reason I love tradesports. Like i figured the abnormally low line began to get closer to the "vegas line". I dumped my wager at -220 for a nice quick profit. Again, being a daytrader I'm more comfortable looking at wagers like a investment that may or may not be held until the event actually takes place. Take care all.

 

[alb]

Interesting discussion here. Personally, I think you sold too soon Patz. You will be able to unload the USA at -400 once the playoff format starts.

Boxlock;
Last I looked Kidd or Pierce aren't playing for any of the other teams either. There is that guard named Marbury who averages 8 assists and 20 ppg. I see what you mean about the drive-to-the hoop style these players possess though. Not to worry with Duncan there to post up and the answer to dish off to.

Unfortunately, the Yanks easily beating the international World Champions (Serbia and Montengro) and the Turks in a hostile crowd hurt the odds. I watched the Turkey game. It looked like they were just going through the motions and are starting to gel. When the Turks got back into it with an onslaught of 3's, the Yanks just did a little crack down on D. No problem.

USA wins easily. The best thing that could happen to them is to lose an early group game just so they don't get too confident....but it probably won't happen. I saw +180 they go undefeated. Tempting but I figure I just have to parlay the money line on the first game right up to the gold winner and I'll probably end up with +300. Now that is worth it.

I hear the comments that they have the best athletes but not necessarily the best team. The best athletes usually win the gold medal though.

Just a side note but this team is really spreading around the minutes. When it counts, the best will be out there.

Now watch them blow and I'll be eating crow for awhile.

 

[Cannon]

I'll be suprised if the USA wins Gold. They beat Yugoslavia because they did not play zone, they played man to man...oh yeah, Peja was watching from the stands...wait 'till it counts...Argentina, S & M, otherwise known as Yugoslavia etc are going to be tough....the difference will be 3 point shooting...if they drop for the Euros, the USA will be in big trouble....(see ITALY)...S & M shot 11-36 from 3point land...USA was 0 for 6.

Nobody in the NBA can shoot anymore...most of the pure shooters are EUROS...Nowitski, Peja. The Euros will play zone, and make the Americans shoot from the outside...brick city.

Regardless, it will be a competitive tournament and should be fun to watch.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

alb
Last I looked Kobe, Shaq, and KG won't be playing for any of the other teams either, turns out they are all AMERICAN!!!
Lets try to skip the obvious and discuss the relevent issues, shall we.

I agree with Cannon that the difference could be in 3 point shooting. The 3 point line is alot closer than the NBA line and the USA team would be much better off if they had more pure outside shooters. I disagree with Cannon when he says that nobody in the NBA can shoot anymore. There are plenty of pure shooters from America (Pierce) but none of them are on this team.

I agree that Marbury is an excellent guard, and that this is a very interesting discussion.

I'm not saying USA won't win, I'm just giving my opinion for why there's a decent chance they will lose.

bl

 

[nehpets]

hahahaha

 

[yyz]

Was this just another "wake up call"?

They should really get outta bed!

 

[kickserv]

2 losses now for the US team...........

 

[pt1gard]

IMO Marbury has been biggest bust on OLY team ... i say that b/c he was chalked as starter who might actually help and isnt 19 anymore ... I beleive he's 2/13 treys (thats an estimate since I cant find stats anywhere) and his defense has been atrocious, never taught on Coney Island or at Ga Tech I guess ... USA woulda been better off with Pistons backcourt; with that said, USA is gradually improving but not much time to collect that dividend ...

gl gregg