Omega European Masters

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Paul Casey to win 12/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Retained as a selection after his 3rd place finish last week and he can still play a lot better. As stated last week, apart from the British Open, his worst finish in Europe this season has been 13th and he has won twice already in 2003. Finished in the top-10 last year and should again finish ahead of Els to be a strong contender.

Trevor Immelman to win 22/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Course experience is very important given the altitude and comes little better than a runners-up finish last year. He has failed to repeat his January form when he won twice and finished 2nd twice in a four-event stretch, but there is evidence of a significant improvement in recent weeks with 9th place in the NEC Invitational and 11th place in the BMW International Open last week. A very talented player who has threatened to win on European soil for a number of years and look set to threaten once again.

Peter Hedblom to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and UKBetting
It was easy to miss his two top-5 finishes in three events in March/April, but his latest burst of form is in much bigger events: 2nd, 8th, 16th and 3rd in his last four starts is very impressive. He has played at Crans-sur-Sierre in the past, so will have some ideas of the altitude problem, but in his current form he must believe he can compete with anyone in Europe. This is a large price for someone in the middle of a purple patch.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Ignacio Garrido to beat Sven Struver -111 @ Stan James [3 units]
Opposing Struver who did win this event in 1998 and finished 6th in 1999, but has missed the last three cuts here. He similarly missed the cut in the BMW International Open last week and finished well down the field in his previous two events, the weak Nordic and Russian Opens. There appears to be little indication that Struver will play well this week and is opposed, first of all with Garrido who has finished ahead of the German in each of the last three years and is good enough to have qualified to play in the NEC Invitational two weeks ago.

Anders Hansen to beat Sven Struver -125 @ Pinnacle
Hansen has certainly been struggling lately, but still holds a 4-2-0 h2h lead over the past three months and finished ahead of the German in his last two visits to Crans-sur-Sierre. There were also signs of an improvement with an opening 67 last week.

Marten Lafeber to beat Sven Struver -111 @ BetandWin [3 units]
No such form problems with Lafeber who has made his last five cuts and has finished ahead of Struver on all three previous occasions that he has played in this event.

David Gilford to beat Gregory Havret -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Apart from a 3rd place finish in the Nordic Open (Gilford was 7th), there has been little sign that Havret can challenge this week, particularly as he has missed the cut on all three previous visits. Gilford has a good record here and holds a decisive 6-2-1 h2h lead over the past three months.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Romero 50 ew 5Dimes
Immelman 22 ew Bet365

I'm going to try something new by playing a few outrights each week. I had been playing too many but i'm going to go with fewer selections for more $$. We'll see how I do. I'll keep a running total.

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1.5 units):

Peter Fowler to beat Marcus Fraser -120 @ Five Dimes
Fraser may have had a hangover from his career-changing win at the Russian Open when he missed the cut last week. Even if not, he has never played this high-altitude course and that is a significant handicap. Fowler was in the top-10 two years ago and has been in solid form all season with top-30 finishes in 14 of 20 starts in 2003.

No 1st round plays.

 

[Stanley]

2nd round plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Michael Campbell to beat Robert Karlsson -110 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
David Howell to beat Eduardo Romero +100 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Charl Schwartzel to beat Paul Lawrie -115 @ Five Dimes

 

[lostinamerica]

The good folks at Bet365 haven't offered any juicy odds on Jamie Donaldson, so I'll settle for second best:

Paul Lawrie(25/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365

GL

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 1-1-1; -1.50 units

Campbell/Karlsson TIED (Push)
Howell/Romero LOST by 2
Schwartzel/Lawrie WON by 1

Mid-point update:

Garrido/Struver TIED (Lost)
Hansen/Struver WON by 2
Lafeber/Struver WON by 4
Gilford/Havret WON by 5
Fowler/Fraser LOST by 2

Casey 15th
Immelman 3rd
Hedblom 6th

Promising position in the outrights with all three in contention and thankfully with Immelman not in the lead too early in the tournament. Would have been a decent profit in the matchups, but a tied match between Garrido and Struver means a lost wager at Stan James. Still a small profit overall with all the matchups decided at the cut.

No further plays.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I think Romero forgot to take his Geritol this morning. At least he could have made it interesting for me!!! Happy he hung on to 3rd.

Romero 3rd
Immelman 26th
Carbonetti 20th or so

1-2 +2.50

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2-0; +0.87 units
18-holes: 1-1-1; -1.50 units

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Casey 8th
Immelman 26th
Hedblom 7th

Three good chances at a return on the outrights and yet another blank on this Tour. Hedblom finished one shot out of a top-5 place and Casey was two out. Another frustrating week on the European Tour.

European Tour ytd
Matchups: 45-43; -7.13 units
18-holes: 50-45; +6.93 units
Outrights: 9-56; -48.71 units