Omega European Masters

[Ian]

Congrats to those on winners last week - can't seem to tip s**t at the moment - too many favourites playing well - not to my liking - except Gene Sauers - not even his mother would have backed him last week - although he had shot 2x66 in the first 2 rounds of his last PGA event and had finished 7th and 4th in his last 2 Buy.com tour events - he has obviously found something akin to his form of many years ago.

Onto this week - will carry on playing around on Betfair but the vote for the biggest and quickest cut of the week goes to Sporting Odds - Craig Stadler - 100-40 - was a silly price for the guy who finished 3rd last year and won back in 84(?) - clearly in much better heart this year with some good finishes - guilty as charged Bettingmad before you ask!

 

[bettingmad]

Ian,
You can't teach an old dog new tricks... or the leopard and spots thing.
I'm giving it a rest....

 

[milpalm]

Soren Hansen 33/1 Ladbrokes. He's in decent form and was 2nd last year and 23rd in 2000.

 

[milpalm]

Romero 40/1 Willhill. Former winner here who's been very consistent in Europe this year. Romero has one win and 5 top 10 finishes this season.

Casey 33/1 Chandler. After a slow start to the season he has found some form. 7th last week. Shot 67 and 65 here last year, which suggests that he can do well in this event.

 

[Clive]

ditto!!

 

[steved]

1 ew Gronberg 66/1 (VChandler)..past winner..and placer here ..not played much this season, but 11th and 20th last two outings, including last week in BMW.

 

[Monarch]

72-Hole Matchups:

72-Hole Matchups:

Romero v Jimenez 8/11
Howell III v Daly 4/6 @ Sportingbet 4 Unit double.

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Lane 66/1 @ BSQ 1 Unit ew - Gunna ride the Lane Train for one last week.

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'BettingMad Double' for the week:

Goosen 10/1 - Howell 25/1 @ Bet365 1 Unit ew.

 

[steved]

Adding
1 ew Lawrie 40/1 (PaddyPower)
0.5 ew Garbutt 100/1 (PaddyPower)

 

[steved]

BM ew double this week
Cink and Lawrie, both 40/1 PaddyPower...

 

[bettingmad]

Monarch & Steved,
I like your style....
As I have obviously been a source of inspiration as you put my name to your 'mad' 'betting' am I on a handsome commission on the day it all comes right?

 

[steved]

BM, you get the room next to us in the 'poor house'.....

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Retief Goosen to win 12/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes (.75 units to win & .75 units to finish in top-5)
This is a field that lacks real depth beyond the top-four of Els, Goosen, Bjorn and Campbell and two of these are chosen without reserve. Would have taken 10/1, but Five Dimes offer two points more than anyone else and with Goosen lying 2nd to Els in the Volvo Order of Merit, there should be no lack of motivation as he tries to defend the coveted title of European Tour #1. Has played the course five times previously, which is important given the altitude, and is a much better player nowadays.

Michael Campbell to win 16/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes, Sportingbet, BetInternet, Surrey or Heathorns
A win and a 6th place finish in Europe in July and two good performances in the PGA Championship and NEC Invitational is ample evidence that he is one of the class players on view this week. There are few doubts over his liking for this course either. Top-15 on his last two visits, he could have finished much higher. He had been 2nd after the 1st round in 2000 and has been the leader at the halfway cut in 1999. But at least he has won on this course - 1994 Memorial Olivier Barras, a European Challenge Tour event - and he should go close this week.

Eduardo Romero to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Discount the world-class events - British Open, PGA Championship & NEC Invitational - and Romero is in cracking form. His last eight finishes would then read 4th, 6th, 32nd, 24th, 2nd, 6th, 30th, 1st. And then there is his course form: top-10 in the last three seasons and a double-winner (1994 and 2000). Add that his fellow Argentinean won this title last year and Romero looks a good prospect to be in contention this week.

 

[Clive]

No trebles this week guys!! You disappoint me!

Can't see a bet in Canada, so perhaps I'll look elsewhere...

The obvious double would be Bjorn and Pak, but can't have a double paying less than 100, so will have a look at Seniors instead.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Nick Faldo to beat David Howell -120 @ Bet365
Ignacio Garrido to beat David Park -111 @ William Hill [3 units]
Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Trevor Immelman -111 @ Ladbrokes
Soren Hansen to beat Ian Poulter -115 @ Intertops
Carl Pettersson to beat Ian Poulter -118 @ Centrebet
Fredrik Jacobson to beat Stephen Leaney -125 @ Bet365
Barry Lane to beat Thomas Levet -111 @ Ladbrokes
Paul Lawrie to beat Lee Westwood +100 @ William Hill

No time for explanation/reasons/excuses ...

 

[stewartie]

I know you guys are not really into spreads but Stanley reckoned I could put them up here anyway to let you see. Started keeping a record two weeks ago and i'm 49 pts up.

So here are this weeks choices:

Buy Faldo Finishing Position @ 35 for 1pt (sporting index)
Nick Faldo for me, is never the force he once was in the big tournaments. A strong field represented here will put him to the test. His alst competitive golf outing was the USPGA in which he finished T60 and for me there is little to suggest he can perform better than his quote of 35.

Buy Jimenez Finishing Position @ 35 for 1pt (ig sport)
Having only played in a handful of top class tour events this year, Jimenez is my second recommendation. I don?t think he has been playing enough quality competition golf and despite a 10th place last week (other positions ranging from 63 to 118), I believe he won?t have enough to last the pace in this strong field.

Buy Campbell Finishing Position @ 27 for 1pt (sporting index)
Still looking for that consistency that will put him up with the big names of the sport. Having a mixed season, I would wonder whether or not he will be able to make this quote. I don?t think he will have a disastrous tournament, but I believe there is some value in a quote of 27.

Buy Els Finishing Position @ 20 for 1pt (sporting index)
Ernie Els. A very good player and one of the best in this field. I still think that 20 is a good price for an event of this stature when lots of other players - the likes of Hansen, Gonzalez, Lane, Immelman ? will all be looking to make an impression. Again, I don?t predict a disastrous tournament for the ?Big Easy? but I do think there is a firm chance of a finish outside the top 25

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Faldo/Howell Leads by 3
Garrido/Park Trails by 3
Gonzalez/Immelman LOST by 7
Hansen/Poulter Leads by 1
Pettersson/Poulter Leads by 5
Jacobson/Leaney Trails by 2
Lane/Levet Leads by 2
Lawrie/Westwood WON by 9

Goosen 59th
Campbell 28th
Romero mc

Looks like a break-even event at best at the moment, but most of the matchups are still alive and it would be helpful if Garrido were to overtake Park in the double-play. Very disappointing performance from the outrights. Romero missed the cut by one, Goosen took seven on the last hole to end any interest, while Campbell need to make up four shots to gain a top-5 spot. Will take a break-even event at this stage.

 

[Monarch]

Final Summary:

Final Summary:

Lane 13th
BM Double didn't run to far this week.

-4 Units for week
Outrights ytd: +23.87 Units

Matchups for week (0-1) -4 Units
Matchups ytd: (32-23-1) +30.37

Total P/L YTD: +54.24 Units.

WHAT on earth was Lane thinking finishing like that. Had the lead after 8 holes only to shoot +7 there on in. What a choker.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 5-3-0; +0.65 units

Faldo/Howell WON by 1
Garrido/Park LOST by 6
Hansen/Poulter WON by 7
Pettersson/Poulter WON by 10
Jacobson/Leaney LOST by 6
Lane/Levet WON by 3

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

Goosen 43rd
Campbell 10th

No improvement over the weekend, though Campbell had reached a top-5 position only to bogey two of the last three holes on Sunday. But this never looked like being a good event.

European Tour ytd
Matchups: 43-34; +3.06 units
Outrights: 11-43; +49.16 units