One odd play for tonight

Penguinfan

Penguinfan

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Game is currently in a rain delay and may not even go, but I'll take

Dakota Hudson (STL) UNDER 3.5 strikeouts -110 risking 1.1 units to win 1.

He has only truck out 6 RH batters in his three starts this year and the Nats will have 7 batters in their lineup that hit from the right side. I know Strasburg is one of them, but he can put the ball in play and Hudson has not got out of the 6th inning once so far so he won't even face Strasburg more than twice (likely).

I don't see a lot of strikeouts coming against WAS and I don't see Hudson being in this game long.
 
MadJack

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Strikes out 5 out of his first 6 hitters. He must have read your post. :lol:
 
MadJack

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Penguinfan said:
If there is a play that deserves bashed, it's this one. Guy doubles his strikeouts vs RHB in four innings.


Whatever........
Click to expand...

It wasn't bashing. Just my kind of luck right there.
 
DZ

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Without trying to sound like a jerk, just a bit of constructive criticism here...

I think your thought process was well-concieved. I do like attacking a prop such as this from a similar angle you took initially, but I would point out a couple of pitfalls. Chiefly, the reliance on a small sample size was something that probably hurt you here. Other factors are that the Nats offense is 2nd in the league in strikeouts per game (at 10 per) while the odd mid-week mid-afternoon start time (get-away) may have played a negative role with the delay or timing with some of the batters as well as how the strikezone was managed from behind the plate. Sometimes we get ideas in our heads when we see a side we like initially, whether a prop or otherwise, and we look for specific data points as a means for a bit of confirmation bias while ignoring other factors. One thing I try to remember when I engage in this process is to look for reasons to eliminate or devalue a potential play or lean. It helps keep things in perspective.

Anyway, you may not have needed or wanted to hear any of this. None of this may apply to the thought process for your play here, in which case, please ignore... but I just wanted to let you know that I really liked your initial thinking here and offer a bit of advice, although it looks like I could have used some myself given how my CWS 1st 5 inning and Raptors plays look to be working out tonight.
 
Penguinfan

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All feedback is welcome and appreciated, that is ultimately how we get better.

I don't disagree that this was working off a small sample size and I don't disagree that Washington K's at a high rate, but Hudson (even given the small sample size) had been pitching to contact to RHB's and wasn't going 6 innings. I felt it worth a play that the trend would either A) continue or in the very least B) not go 180 degrees from what it had been.

One takes one's chances and this was a whiff from the very first pitch.

Better plays coming.

Good luck.
 
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