Anyone reading this that knows my style of play is in for a shock.
Quite simply, books dont offer many props on some of these meaningless games and this is the ultimate week that traditional handicapping methods are worthless in all but a handful of the games.
Do not make the mistake of treating this Sunday as a regular NFL affair. Much like some of the previous bowl games, many outcomes are going to be decided by WHO SHOWS UP TO PLAY.
Motivation is not something that we usually have to factor in any NFL game.
Therefore, Im making 1 play today. My first real NFL parlay of the year, as I do not advise betting them unless special situations dictate.
I did bet a throwaway parlay last week, an 8 teamer, and guess what happened. I won 7 and lost 1. Pays the same as winning 1 and losing 7. The longer that I do this, the less and less that parlays appeal to me. Gimme one winner, any winner and lets call it a day. Alas, here is how Im playing this Sundays card:
1. Buffalo ML - Indys perfection is over and the conditions are frightful. Guys on the Bills are playing for jobs next year and to make themselves better FA candidates (TO) Any Colt gets a hangnail and theyre out of the game.
2. SF ML - No way Mike doesnt coach his way to an 8-8 record here. The QB for STL is the worst in the league and dont think S.Jack is gonna play. Also, STL is primed for the #1 selection which they will be shopping around. (Drop down and take Bradford in the '10 draft) SF wins.
3. Chicago ML - This is the risky play. Culpepper is starting and he sucks, and the team is not behind him one bit. Its his last game so he's auditioning for a FA job next year. Good Cutler + Detroit secondary = mismatch. Bad Cutler + anything and this bet might lose. Also banking on Detroit not wanting to win and maintain the #2 spot in the draft, and possibly trading up with STL and getting Suh. They covet him, they want, they need.
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4. SD -3 - Assuming the first 3 games win as they should, this will be the anchor leg and its not an accident that this is the only 4pm game of my bet. SD will come out fast and grab the lead. Marmalard might only play 1-2 quarters before garbage time Billy Volek cleans up. Im fully prepared and planning on hedging this bet at HT of the game.
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Quite simply this parlay pays 4-1. There is a good chance that SD is up by 7-14 pts at half and we catch a good number with the Skins for twice our initial investment and take a shot at the man for winning pretty big. 500 parlay to win 2000, with a strong possibility of playing 1k or more at HT of the late game depending on how the first half plays out.
Heres to hoping Chicago doesnt fuck me and Im bumping this thread in about seven hours.
Quite simply, books dont offer many props on some of these meaningless games and this is the ultimate week that traditional handicapping methods are worthless in all but a handful of the games.
Do not make the mistake of treating this Sunday as a regular NFL affair. Much like some of the previous bowl games, many outcomes are going to be decided by WHO SHOWS UP TO PLAY.
Motivation is not something that we usually have to factor in any NFL game.
Therefore, Im making 1 play today. My first real NFL parlay of the year, as I do not advise betting them unless special situations dictate.
I did bet a throwaway parlay last week, an 8 teamer, and guess what happened. I won 7 and lost 1. Pays the same as winning 1 and losing 7. The longer that I do this, the less and less that parlays appeal to me. Gimme one winner, any winner and lets call it a day. Alas, here is how Im playing this Sundays card:
1. Buffalo ML - Indys perfection is over and the conditions are frightful. Guys on the Bills are playing for jobs next year and to make themselves better FA candidates (TO) Any Colt gets a hangnail and theyre out of the game.
2. SF ML - No way Mike doesnt coach his way to an 8-8 record here. The QB for STL is the worst in the league and dont think S.Jack is gonna play. Also, STL is primed for the #1 selection which they will be shopping around. (Drop down and take Bradford in the '10 draft) SF wins.
3. Chicago ML - This is the risky play. Culpepper is starting and he sucks, and the team is not behind him one bit. Its his last game so he's auditioning for a FA job next year. Good Cutler + Detroit secondary = mismatch. Bad Cutler + anything and this bet might lose. Also banking on Detroit not wanting to win and maintain the #2 spot in the draft, and possibly trading up with STL and getting Suh. They covet him, they want, they need.
------------------------------------
4. SD -3 - Assuming the first 3 games win as they should, this will be the anchor leg and its not an accident that this is the only 4pm game of my bet. SD will come out fast and grab the lead. Marmalard might only play 1-2 quarters before garbage time Billy Volek cleans up. Im fully prepared and planning on hedging this bet at HT of the game.
-------------------------------------
Quite simply this parlay pays 4-1. There is a good chance that SD is up by 7-14 pts at half and we catch a good number with the Skins for twice our initial investment and take a shot at the man for winning pretty big. 500 parlay to win 2000, with a strong possibility of playing 1k or more at HT of the late game depending on how the first half plays out.
Heres to hoping Chicago doesnt fuck me and Im bumping this thread in about seven hours.
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