One to look at Saturday

[spang]

Youngstown State -2' vs Duquense

I have seen both of these teams play here this year and can tell you that one of them is far better than their horrible records indicate.

YSU, led by Quin Humphrey is back home and should handle the Dukes. This game looks just about as good as it gets for me.

 

[spang]

Pinny has quickly moved this number to -3

 

[bryanz]

I like that kind of info coming from a guy like you. Thanks

 

[bohawk]

Spang-Man, like your insight tonly thing kinda worried me
was YT St. got drilled by Duqs LY 78-54.

 

[nchiappetta]

...and YSU is 5-0 ATS this year. Why did it open at 2.5 instead of 3, which is 1/2 below a key of 3? GL with it though. Always look for your plays.

 

[lowell]

it's at 4.5 at betj with ml going from 180 to 200.

 

[gman2]

a well-deserved bump.
dare we say a dominant effort by the penguins?
great job man. hopefully bg can bring the same kind of effort that ysu brough, lol.

nchiapetta - key numbers in basketball? :mj03: :mj03:

 

[bryanz]

I'm taking credit for this one.

 

[nchiappetta]

Yes Gman, although the scoring isn't exactly the same as in football, the same key numbers apply to some extent...if you pay attention to some opening numbers, you would be surprised how many of the results ATS are due to the opening around the key numbers.

 

[rrc]

Great call spang..

Great call spang..

Thanks for sharing.

 

[gman2]

Yes Gman, although the scoring isn't exactly the same as in football, the same key numbers apply to some extent...if you pay attention to some opening numbers, you would be surprised how many of the results ATS are due to the opening around the key numbers.

we'll have to agree to disagree here.
how can you logically argue for key numbers in hoops? in football, every point is "earned". in basketball, its all about if the opposition wants to foul or not, and then in the final few seconds, theres always an uncontested 3 pointer.
in football, all points are 'earned' even in a backdoor situation. teams have to drive the length of the field to get the ball into the endzone. in basketball, a foul 80 feet from the basket on the other end of the court can result in 1 or 2 points.
theres no doubt that line moves are important, as are opening numbers. but key numbers in basketball? that's an almost impossible sell.

 

[nchiappetta]

we'll have to agree to disagree here.
how can you logically argue for key numbers in hoops? in football, every point is "earned". in basketball, its all about if the opposition wants to foul or not, and then in the final few seconds, theres always an uncontested 3 pointer.
in football, all points are 'earned' even in a backdoor situation. teams have to drive the length of the field to get the ball into the endzone. in basketball, a foul 80 feet from the basket on the other end of the court can result in 1 or 2 points.
theres no doubt that line moves are important, as are opening numbers. but key numbers in basketball? that's an almost impossible sell.

like you said we will have to agree to disagree then my friend...never meant to get into a discussion about this, just do some research on key numbers and you will see (or track the theory yourself...I don't really care who believes this or not). as far as 'earning' every point in fball, how about when there is a PI or 15 yard penalty that puts a team in FG range, or a fumble in the redzone...in bball, you still have to put the ball in the hoop no matter how you get the opportunity, so I don't find that as a very valid argument. in addition you even said a '3 pointer'...is it no wonder that the scoring combos of 2 and 3 pts make up some freightening coincidence to the same numbers in fb? sorry spang, didn't mean to take over your post...will not be responding to anymore replies regarding this for spang's sake.

 

[gman2]

I don't really care who believes this or not)....will not be responding to anymore replies regarding this for spang's sake.

calm down nchiapette. didnt realize youd get all flustered by this discussion.

in football, if a penalty is called, they dont walk the ball down to the endzone and give the offense a free uncontested shot at points.

in basketball, if a foul happens 80 feet from the basket, a player can walk down to the other end and shot for uncontested points.

in football, there is no "half a field goal".
but a player can split a pair of free throws or intentionally miss one, etc.

have a good one man. just because i dont agree with you doesnt mean i dont respect your contribution.

 

[nchiappetta]

no worries gman, actually enjoying the discussion. that is what this forum is all about...didn't mean to sound flustered if i did. i have always looked for your plays since last year when i joined madjacks. but regarding the key number theory...trust me, i didn't come up with this stuff on my own as i would think the same as you have stated. got it from some long time and tested handicappers i know. i was skeptical at first as well for the reasons you said, but like i said, if i you start to follow and review, you too will see the sounding results.

for instance, today i hammered oregon st. +2.5...opened at +2 (1 below 3). also had tennessee that opened at +13 (1 below 14). michigan opened at -5.5 (1.5 below 7...I actually took michigan though :cursin: ). marquette at -10.5 (.5 above 10). by no means is the say all end all, just another factor to look at.

 

[Rcxslam]

or instance, today i hammered oregon st. +2.5...opened at +2 (1 below 3). also had tennessee that opened at +13 (1 below 14). michigan opened at -5.5 (1.5 below 7...I actually took michigan though ). marquette at -10.5 (.5 above 10). by no means is the say all end all, just another factor to look at.

umm sorry if I don't understand this...but you took those teams in what relation to the key #'s? what I mean to ask is, what factors did those lines opening close to those "key #'s" have in your picks? I hope that made sense, thanks...

 

[bryanz]

I loved you @ hello.

 

[nchiappetta]

umm sorry if I don't understand this...but you took those teams in what relation to the key #'s? what I mean to ask is, what factors did those lines opening close to those "key #'s" have in your picks? I hope that made sense, thanks...

if you look at those games i mentioned, say the uga/oreg. st. game. it opened at uga -2.5. this is 1/2 pt below 3. therefore, the linesmaker was possibly looking to get some money on uga from the start. ask the question, why open it at 2.5 instead of at 3? this applies to the others as well.

bryanz, what are you referring to "i loved you @ hello"?

 

[bryanz]

I am referring to Spang's post to start this thread. It's not what he said but how he said it. I have not seen these two play but thought Young was the right side,I love to make bets based on first hand info or using a source that I can trust. Spang's post resonated with me and I had no doubt Young was a winner. Thanks Spang !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[spang]

You are most welcome, I usually don't like to over-hype a play but this one was very much a "GOY" type play for me. The accounts are pretty healthy.

FWIW, I don't buy in to the key numbers theory either, but if it works for you that is all that matters.

2-0 fri and sat.
YTD: 22-12

Continued success boys!

 

[Box and one]

Spang..didn't get a chance to say congrads and thank you...followed you to a "T".nice job