Open de Espana

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Martin Kaymer to win 33/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
He has a taken some time to adjust to this Tour, but there are signs that he has found his feet. He was never going to start off as he did on the European Challenge Tour last year when winning twice and finishing in the top-4 in six of his first seven Tour events as a Challenge Tour rookie, but with finishes of 15th in the Madeira Island Open and 3rd in the Estoril Open de Portugal, he is getting ever closer to that main Tour win. And with this course being used on the Challenge Tour last season for the first time - he finished 4th - he has a rare advantage as a Tour rookie over the rest of the field this week in course experience.

Jose Manuel Lara to win 50/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes and ToteSport
Kaymer is obviously returning to form, but with Lara it is rather less obvious. Since winning the Hong Kong Open in November, he has a best finish of 44th in seven Tour starts this year, but it is notable that he had made the cut in all three events played in the Middle East/Europe (and not made the cut elsewhere) and in his last start, the Estoril Open de Portugal, he was the top-ranked player in greens in regulation that week, so his game in clearly returning. And there is nowhere better for it to return that in his home country where he has had so much success. Since the start of the 2005 season, for example, he has competed in eight events in Spain on the European Tour, finishing in the top-3 on three occasions and outside the top-12 only twice. His ball-striking was good last time out; now that he is back in Spain, he should be able to convert that into some very low scores.

Alexander Noren to win 85/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Kaymer, understandably, grabbed all the headlines on the Challenge Tour last season, but Noren also recorded a run of six top-6 finishes in seven events, including one win, and finished 3rd in the Rankings to earn his European Tour Card for this season. And, like Kaymer, he struggled to make cuts at the start of the season, but once the Tour finally reached European soil, it was a different matter: he finished 7th in the Madeira Island Open and held the lead heading into the final round of the Estoril Open de Portugal. He faltered on that occasion, he was still very impressive over those two events and, given his success on the Oklahoma State University team, he is unlikely to surrender such an opportunity again.

 

[phar.lap]

72 hole matchup

Forsyth -111 to beat Fernandez-Castano
(At Sportingbet)

 

[ridle]

Gotta agree with you Stanley there's much more value in Alex price than in Martin's - it's amazing how his career has sky rocketed past few month - am already proud that I backed M.K. in his breakthrough victory in the Vodafone Challenge last year which was just near my home - he's a great guy and I wish him all the best but am not willing to back him at these prices just yet - after all he usually starts slow so might be some value in running.
From what I thought Noren and Kaymer are pretty much on one level - and Noren gets the boost that his former college Oklahoma already has a winner this year with Martin-Benavides. Anyways here's what I decided to bet:

1/4 1-5:
Adarrago Gomez 400/1 Betdirect
Andersson Hed 300/1 Betfred (Once again)
Arruti 300/1 Betfred
Linhart 250/1 Sportingbet
Mork 200/1 Coral
Sullivan K 200/1 Sportingbet
Vibe-H. 200/1 Sportingbet
1/5 1-5:
Luna 100/1 SportsTAB
Rodiles 300/1 SportsTAB
Remember I backed Balmaseda last year for challenge event right here as he's a local pro but I can't do it this time really.

 

[lostinamerica]

Welcome to Europe, Stanley - Have a Great Year!

And as soon as I finish getting this post in under the wire, the next thing on my To Do list is to give ridle his props for making us all feel like amatuerish pikers.


Outrights:

Peter Lawrie(80/1) e.w.
- - On European Tour weekly I heard just what I was expecting and hoping to hear from Lee Slattery - not a course on which you'll pull your driver out a lot, and it doesn't play long. Absolutely the foundation of a play on Lawrie for me . . . From my post on 9/13/06 before last year's Madrid Open: "Peter Lawrie - For future reference - A player who has sucked me in too often over the years, but there is some quality there I like. Anyway, Lawrie gave an excellent television interview after the 3rd round of KLM in which he discussed his 3 wood off the tee as being flat out the best club in his bag, and he expects to play well on venues in which he can navigate his way around on that basis. On Sunday, it was relatively easy to see his confidence and form with that stick. Moreover, I've since went back and checked his results, and that insight seemed to nicely synthesize much of his performance history, and helped explain a dichotomy I've always struggled with in capping Lawrie, to wit, steering clear when wayward driving gets punished, despite some very solid finishes on some very tight - almost quirky - courses" . . . And he fares quite well on this European peninsula (the Barcelona influence :shrug: ).

Jose Manuel Lara(40/1) e.w.
- - When the European Tour returns to Europe, and the stage is a National Open, it didn't take me long to be convinced there is real value in capping the homeboy compatriots as a distinct field, and pulling the trigger on the best you think you see from that lot - be it one or three or six that seem to have something to offer. Same with South Africa. I can't believe Lara isn't "in a place" (mental coach wise) on this stage this year to be a real threat to get a whiff of the business end of the championship.

Juan Parron(200/1) e.w.
- - With 11 professionals in his family, it's not a stretch to see how Open de Espana means more to him than it does to most, with an 11th place finish already under his belt.

John Bickerton(125/1) e.w.
- - Agree with a comment I read that my mental image of "Bickerton in the mix" coincides with layouts generally or at least somewhat describable as fiddly, and that's when his name pops up in my pre-event capping and consciousness when I've given him much consideration at all, and it was hard to miss giving his name some consideration after last year's championship . . . And on the topic of playing conditions, somewhat amazing that as I've checked on the weather forecasts, everyone else with an opinion has singled out the damp conditions and waterproofs as evidence of a slog, while I've focused on the remarkably calm conditions and anticipated that as the championship unfolds the players will be commenting that conditions have been good for scoring.

Nick Dougherty(25/1) e.w.
- - I have quite definite reasons why I backed Little Nick in Singapore Masters (4th) and just couldn't see value at TCL Classic (13th) . . . Back in my frame this week.

Carl Suneson(200/1) e.w.
- - Has shown some game, arguably at least, or at least in my distorted mental images, but his problems with diabetes are consistent with his record of wilting at the end if he even manages to stay in that long. This would seem the place for something close to his most sustained and inspired - but don't hold out hope too long over the weekend for this Oklahoma State product, unless you must.

Kenneth Ferrie(125/1) e.w.
- - Whatever hunches I've had about his performances subsequent to Winged Foot haven't been way off the mark.


GL

 

[ridle]

Gotta agree with you Stanley there's much more value in Alex price than in Martin's - it's amazing how his career has sky rocketed past few month - am already proud that I backed M.K. in his breakthrough victory in the Vodafone Challenge last year which was just near my home - he's a great guy and I wish him all the best but am not willing to back him at these prices just yet - after all he usually starts slow so might be some value in running.
From what I thought Noren and Kaymer are pretty much on one level - and Noren gets the boost that his former college Oklahoma already has a winner this year with Martin-Benavides. Anyways here's what I decided to bet:

1/4 1-5:
Adarrago Gomez 400/1 Betdirect
Andersson Hed 300/1 Betfred (Once again)
Arruti 300/1 Betfred
Linhart 250/1 Sportingbet
Mork 200/1 Coral
Sullivan K 200/1 Sportingbet
Vibe-H. 200/1 Sportingbet
1/5 1-5:
Luna 100/1 SportsTAB
Rodiles 300/1 SportsTAB
Remember I backed Balmaseda last year for challenge event right here as he's a local pro but I can't do it this time really.

Not too bad ,except that it's annoying to see Andersson Hed tied 6th - just outside the money - Rodiles a nice top 5 finish although more was certainly possible.