Open de France

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Benn Barham to beat Simon Wakefield -125 @ Five Dimes
Backing the fast-starting Barham who has shot less than 70 in each of his last three events, is in good form as shown by his 3rd place position with one round to play last week, and has been 3rd and 4th after the 1st round in this event over the last two years

Jean-Baptiste Gonnet to beat Miles Tunnicliff -114 @ Unibet
Opposing Tunnicliff who has missed five of his last seven cuts here, shooting lower than 71 just once in his last eleven rounds and is out of form at the moment with an average of almost 75 over his last six rounds

Alejandro Canizares to beat Hennie Otto -105 @ Five Dimes
Will take on Otto at these odds - he averages over 76 in his two previous visits to this course and while he has had some success on the European Tour this year, he cannot be coming into this event full of confidence after shooting 77-80 at the weekend

 

[phar.lap]

Tournament matchup
Levet 1.90 to beat Richard Green (Centrebet)


Also...

Jyoti Randhawa $9 to finish top 10 (Sportingbet)

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:


Oliver Wilson(35/1) e.w.
- - Only further buoyed from the U.S. Open.

Darren Clarke(33/1) e.w.
- - Will go very well if he drives it as well as he should. Came through for me like a champ at the Asian Open while carrying my cash for no more than the 5th time on the season, and I've had every intention of riding him at least twice that many times thereafter and before the Ryder Cup team is selected. Will surely arrive at this demanding and rich event from the text messaging sidelines of the U.S. Open with his game face on.

Gregory Bourdy(80/1) e.w.
- - Delamontagne's 18th hole birdie for 4th place in France was a winner for me two weeks ago in my only posted play, and Francois held my interest throughout last week but came up just short when I was too lazy to post a play, but I'm expecting it's time for one of his countrymen to carry the French flag the highest this week.

Jean-Baptiste Gonnet(200/1) e.w.
- - One cheese eating surrender monkey would be too small of an army for this year's edition.

Peter Lawrie(125/1) e.w.
- - I didn't need this price to be tempted in.

Peter O'Malley(66/1) e.w.
- - Looking to win, playing like someone not miles away from that rarified air, and surely believing this venue is one of his best opportunities.

Soren Kjeldsen(50/1) e.w.
- - I liked him last year (albeit at 80/1) when he cruised to a 21st place finish, and that keeps him in my notes as someone I've identified as a well-suited specialist for this matinee of a soiree.

Soren Hansen(25/1) e.w.
- - A waste of money at twice this price.


GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Peter Lawrie to beat Oliver Fisher -125 @ Five Dimes
Both lie in 2nd place after the opening round, but given that Fisher was in the first group in the morning and Lawrie was one of the last groups in the afternoon, the Irishman's round was clearly the more impressive. Just as impressive are his typical performances in the 2nd round: he leads Fisher 8-2-1 h2h in the 2nd round this year

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (2pts):

David Lynn to beat Pablo Larrazabal +100 @ Boyle Sports
This quote says it all: "At the end of the round I was a little nervous when I looked at the leaderboard and I was four shots clear but I knew then that if I made one or two bogeys then it was still a good round and that I would have a chance of being in the last or second last group on Saturday". Larrazabal had a four-shot lead and instead of feeling confident, he was thinking about the consequences of dropping shots over the remaining few holes. He has to be opposed in this final grouping matchup

Colin Montgomerie to beat Angel Cabrera +120 @ Ladbrokes and The Greek [available widely] * UPDATE: Unibet's +100 ties void offering represents better value *
Monty is ranked 1st in driving accuracy and greens in regulation this week; no-one in the top-25 has had more double-bogeys than Cabrera this week. The value has to be with Monty at plus odds

 

[lostinamerica]

Saturday:

Montgomerie(+120) over Cabrera (Ties lose)
- - . . . and Monty has had the pace on the greens as well as and probably better than any time this season.

Lynn(-1/2)(-127) over Larrazabal
- - . . . Even in calm and ideal conditions, Le Golf National should flush out a difference.

I'm with you on both, Stan.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Francesco Molinari to beat Paul McGinley -105 @ Five Dimes
McGinley is a go-against in this situation: in 43rd position and with little to play for in the final round. Over the last 3 seasons, he has been 30th or worse after three rounds 20 times and he has broken 70 in the final round just once. Molinari is higher up the leaderboard in 27th and the last time he was in a similar position - 25th after three rounds of the Celtic Manor Wales Open earlier this month - he shot 64 in the final round and finished 4th