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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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I did O.K. on the few threads I started last year . . .

There is always a speculative quality with a venue on which I haven't seen any action before, and although that doesn't necessarily create a disadvantage vis-a-vis the other cappers this week, attempting to size up the course is probably bigger to me than most in my subjective methods for analyzing the week's possibilities. http://www.sevillagolf.com/Documentacion.aspx?key=CGOLF And the greatly reduced time available for doing my homework this week is a frequent precursor to a feeling of having left money on the table for having overlooked something that later appears fairly obvious. That about sums up the old 1-2-3 reasoning behind my venturing out lightly to start this week.


OUTRIGHTS:

Jean Van de Velde(125/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ 5dimes
- His strong putting on the finest greens, and his wayward (although improved) driving, mirror architect Olazabal's game in some ways, but seeing is believing when it comes to the quality of the putting surfaces on the European Tour. I also generally forsee Van de Velde as going better on venues that don't require constantly contending with abrupt elevation changes off dramatic slopes. Mickelson fulfilled his destiny, can Van de Velde follow that with something more unthinkable than destined?

Warren Bennett(200/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
- Say what? Say bye.

GL
 
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Stanley

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Jul 26, 1999
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Outright plays (1pt):

Jean-Francois Remesy to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ SkyBet
A very weak event, a new course and a short-priced favourite playing close to his home. As a result, there are three cautious place-only selections, particularly as this field is devoid of proven winners bar Jimenez in his current streak. Remesy's form is not that far behind the fuzzy one. He has finished 18th, 11th and 5th in his last three starts with nor round over-par. That form should be good enough to earn a top-five place for the player whose only Tour win was on the Iberian Peninsula.

Damien McGrane to finish in the top-five 16/1 @ Five Dimes
Good odds for a player who has finished in the top-20 in three of his last four starts against much stronger fields. He was only a shot behind Jimenez after two rounds of the Algarve Open de Portugal two weeks ago and though he faded in the third round he came back well on the Sunday to finish in the top-10 and just five shots behind the winner. He has had success in this region, finishing 15th in his only Tour start in Spain, the 2003 Turespana Mallorca Classic, having been 1st after the 1st round and 2nd after the second round. He also finished 3rd at the European Q-School at Emporda last November, so he has shown that he can play on Spanish courses.

Rob Rashell to finish in the top-five 18/1 @ Five Dimes
Rashell was supported two weeks ago and missed the cut, but he had been in the top-20 for most of Friday until a disastrous three holes at the end meant that he missed the cut by one shot. Given that he has finished 2nd and 10th in his two other Tour starts there seems little reason to abandon him just yet. He also secured his Tour Card at Emporda so he does have a successful experience of playing in Spain and should not be such large odds, especially when the main penalty of being a rookie - no previous course experience - is not an issue this week.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (1pt):

Jose Maria Arruti to beat Francois Delamontagne -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds

Jamie Donaldson to beat Nick Dougherty +116 @ Pinnacle
(also available at Sirbet)

Bradley Dredge to beat Ignacio Garrido -125 @ Paddy Power

Stephen Gallacher to beat Kenneth Ferrie -111 @ BetandWin

Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Jarmo Sandelin -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds

No time for write-ups this week.
 

Stanley

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Outrights - Final update: 1-2; +3.00pts

Remesy 4th
McGrane mc
Rashell 76th

Remesy got as close as one shot off the lead by the time he was on the 14th hole. He failed to progress from there, but played the difficult closing holes well to enable him to get back into the top-5 as others struggled on those holes. A three-way share of 4th place was enough to ensure a profit on the outright plays.

Matchups - Final update: 3-2-0; +0.63pts

Arruti/Delamontagne LOST by 8
Donaldson/Dougherty LOST by 8
Dredge/Garrido WON by 2
Gallacher/Ferrie WON by 7
Gonzalez/Sandelin WON by 11

Small profit on the matchup plays and at least managed to pick players who finished 1st and 2nd in the tournament.

European Tour ytd
Outrights - 3-12; -5.12pts
Matchups - 10-9; -0.23pts
 
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