Oregon -8.5 @ Houston

[soljah67]

Oregon -8.5

How can I not pick a team that is believed to place second in the Pac 10 behind #1 USC? Even though while going to college in corvallis I hated the ducks, I just hope they win me some money. Last year Oregon posted a 5-6 record and barely missed going to a bowl game thanks to my beloved beavs. However, this season Oregon returns 6 starters on offense, including Sr QB Clemens, WR Williams, RB Whitehead, and TE Day. On defense Oregon returns 7 starters, including a very strong secondary which should shut down any sort of air attack Houston may have.

On Houston's side they return 8 starters on Offense on a team that finsihed 3-8 in 2005 including their QB Kolb, WR, and RB. Kolb was expected to have a breakthrough season last year after having a sensational freshman campaign the year before, but with his line allowing 44 sacks last season, its kind of hard to do again. Once again, he's expected to have a breakthrough season this year, but with almost the same O-line, I don't think they can get that much better, thus his stat get much better. Maybe Houston's O-line will allow 35 sacks this season, but that's not to mention how much hurried passes they will allow. On defense Houston returns 8 starters, but it may actaully be 6 starters after 2 starters required surgery in the offseason. If anything one may return. Even with these starters returning are they really gonna improve so that they will be better than a defense that allowed 399.3 yards a game last season? I don't think so.

Oregon seems to me like the pick go with for thursday as they can only improve after being hampered with injuries last year and returning key players that have petential to be all Pac-10 contenders. Houston on the other hand is returning more starters, but from a team that finished 3-8 in the lowly C-USA, allowed 44 sacks last season, and gave up almost 400 yards per game. Oregon should easily romp Houston. Clemens will pass all day to the now healthy Williams and his TE. And Whitehead will run all over Houston's horrid D. Not to mention Kolb will be running for his dear life as Oregon's D-line should go through Houston's O-line like water. Kolb better pray that he don't go home on a stretcher. This is the game that stuck out to me without doing any research, and upon looking more into it, its looking better and better. Oregon by 3 Touchdowns.

 

[TimmyE]

I love Oregon in this game, the more I look at it, I keep wanting to add to my wager. The line should be set at atleast 14 IMO, but there's a lot of people taking houston in this one.
Oregon 31 - Houston 10

 

[Scott4USC]

Oregon -8.5

How can I not pick a team that is believed to place second in the Pac 10 behind #1 USC?

Actually there is no consensus team to finish #2 in the Pac 10. Oregon, CAL, ASU, UCLA, and Oregon St. all pretty much have equal chance in finishing #2. Very competitive for the #2 slot. If you put a lot of weight on this, I would think over.

On defense Oregon returns 7 starters, including a very strong secondary which should shut down any sort of air attack Houston may have.

WOW! :scared Bold statement. Why are you so confident in the Oregon secondary?

Should shut down any sort of air attack Houston may have

You know Houston has a unique spread offense lead by a proven QB. Oregon not only will need a strong secondary but strong LB play to "shut down" the Houston air attack. Maybe you are not aware but Oregon returns ZERO players at LB with experience. Maybe you are right Oregon will shut down Houston air attack. I strongly disagree and wouldn't bet on it. BTW, I am on Houston +10 and just thought I give my 2 cents. Maybe we both win!

 

[soljah67]

Scott -

No I do not pay too much attention to those pre-season polls, just thought i'd throw that in there because you see all different rankings for the Pac-10. but they are ranked high in a conference that you and me feel is the best one, while Houston's C-USA is nothing. As far as Oregon's secondary its actually really good and deep. All Oregon's starters in their secondary return. That includes Gipson, whom intercepted 4 passes and broke up 5 more passes last year. Not to mention Oregon's D-line will run through Houston's O-line like water. And actually you are mistaken about Oregon not returning any LB's. Anthony Trucks which started at LB last season with 6.5 sacks from last season returns. He is however moving to strong saftey, as Oregon has a 4-2-5 defense, but his duties will not change. Not to mention Kolb will be lucky to get any good reads or the ball off in time with DT Ngata and DE Devan chasing him. So Kolb will either be hurried on his pases, running for his dear life, or getting sacked all day long. You can't pass the ball if you can't get the pass off or get an open reciever to throw the ball too. EIther that or he can throw it in the air and see the ball get intercepted. Did you also know that Oregon is implementing their own new spread offense lead by a much more proven QB Clemens in a tougher conference. Also antoher interesting fact, Oregon picked up a top junior college wide out that averaged 100 yards a game last year. I know JC is different from Div I, but he should make some sort of immediate impact. They also have a true freshman RB in Stewart who was one of the top 3 RB recruits in the nation last year. He should aslo make an immediate impact on the team and gives Oregon added depth at RB.

 

[Scott4USC]

As far as Oregon's secondary its actually really good and deep. All Oregon's starters in their secondary return. That includes Gipson, whom intercepted 4 passes and broke up 5 more passes last year..

I agree it is a good thing to return your players and it almost guarantees better production the next season. BUT, based on what these players did last year, you cannot be too confident in their play against Houston. 1st game of year on the road. IMO, they might be decent in the 2h of the season.

Not to mention Oregon's D-line will run through Houston's O-line like water.

Is DT David Faaeteete playing? He has a hurt knee and was questionable for the game. He is there starting DT. I heard WR Finely was cleared to play. He almost missed the game. That would have been a killer.

And actually you are mistaken about Oregon not returning any LB's. Anthony Trucks which started at LB last season with 6.5 sacks from last season returns. He is however moving to strong saftey, as Oregon has a 4-2-5 defense, but his duties will not change.

I mentioned Trucks moving to safety in another thread. That means what I said is true. Oregon will not be returning any LB's with experience.

Did you also know that Oregon is implementing their own new spread offense lead by a much more proven QB Clemens in a tougher conference.

Yes, and that is a reason to play against Oregon when you are gettin 10pts with Oregon on the road. It is not easy to implement a system and have it run to perfection by game 1 of the season. Not to mention Oregon's OL is weak. More times than not, a team struggles early when implementing a new offensive system. I am not saying Oregon can't win, but I don't "think" they can cover the spread.

Also antoher interesting fact, Oregon picked up a top junior college wide out that averaged 100 yards a game last year. I know JC is different from Div I, but he should make some sort of immediate impact. They also have a true freshman RB in Stewart who was one of the top 3 RB recruits in the nation last year. He should aslo make an immediate impact on the team and gives Oregon added depth at RB.

Like you said, JC is different than D1. JC studs often take a whole season to adjust to div 1a football. You are asking him to adjust by game 1. Good luck. Same with freshman. Mike Williams and Jarret were considered one of the top freshman in the country after their freshman year. Both struggled badly in their first 3+ games. At RB i be very worried about Stewart fumbling the ball. Happens a lot to freshman carrying the rock for first time in div. 1a. Stewart is used to running around/through high school athletes, in college he will need learn what he can or can't get away with. You only learn that in games, not practices. Reggie Bush struggled with this his freshman year. He danced around way too much because he was able to get away with it in high school. Not college.

Don't take offense to me disagreeing with you. I don't think you did but just wanted you to know I am just creating a good debate about this game. You like Oregon, I like Houston. We obviously disagree and see things differently. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

What other games you looking at?

 

[soljah67]

First off here are a few trends.

Ducks are 12-2 ATS on grass

Ducks are 24-5 ATS in road openers.

Ducks are 8-2 in season openers and out scored their opponent 310-209 in those contests. (31-21).

So Bellotti must be doing something right to gell his team and get them prefared before the season opens.

DT David Faaeteete is not even a starter he is a reserve. Matt Toeaina is expected to move to DT. WR Finley has actually impressed the coaches and has risen to the teams #2 or 3 option. WR is also one of the potisitons that doesn't not have a big transition change for JC to Div I. It is not like he has to read too much into the defensive schemes as a QB, or deal with a physical upgrade as a lineman. Therefore his transition from JC to Div I shouldn't be too bad. As for Freshman RB Stewart you may be right about him, but the thing is he might not even play he might even be oergon's 3rd string RB as they are deep in that position. Oh actually I take that back, he'll proably be playing when Oregon is killing Houston in the fourth quarter. lol. You do have some good points Scott, and I already see your side, its just that I've seen Oregon play a couple of times last year. And seen glimpses of a good team. I'm not saying that oregon is guaranteed gonna win, because as we all know nothing is guaranteed in gambling. I just think that oregon has a good chance of winning by at least 10 points. Other games I am looking at are Boise State and Bowling Green. And of course I already have money down on my Hawaii +55 line. lol. I hope that is at least money in the bank.

 

[BIF]

Good to see us on the same side for once

Good luck on the opener - I also played UConn in the 1st Half -9.5

 

[soljah67]

Just put my bets in for today. playing small as its the beginning of the season.

Oregon -8.5

Teaser:
Eastern Michigan +16 & South Carolina - 15

 

[soul train]

Good call on the ducks

 

[Scott4USC]

soljah67

Congrats on your Oregon win! Nice way to start off the season! :thumb:

 

[Dice34]

Looks like that JC wideout Finley did make an impact, 10 rec for 95 yards. Good Call!

 

[soljah67]

won on the oregon game but lost on my teaser which i played half as much so still up some, just irritated because I could have won my original teaser of e mich and vandy but changed it from listening to a friend. just gotta go with my gut. but still up so can't complain and right now kinda drunk and wasted. only 2 games tomorrow and none of them look good. if anything might put a small play on aona but need to look more into it when i'm sober. lol. damn i need to get to sleep. shoots