Oscars
- Thread starter DR STRANGELOVE
- Start date
SELECTIONS:
RECORD: 0-0, 0 Units
Best Picture
CHICAGO -450
1350 to win 300
Chicago is feeling love, and I feel it will win best pic. Only Hours stands in its way. With 4 acting noms to anchor (and Jones may win), its only weaknesses may be in the screenplay category and Gere's snub. With Moulin Rouge! making this possible, a new musical era may be ushered in. The film's anti-media message may hurt, but Hours is even more controversial.
THIS IS A LOCK
Best Actor
Originally was going with Brody @+700, but I'm switching to Day-Lewis. He won the most crix awards, received universal raves, and the SAG win cements his buzz. Gangs got surprising academy love with 10 noms, and Scorcese's buzz should help sustain Day-Lewis. He clashes directly with Nicholson and Brody, but, being in the middle of those 2 (in age and Oscars) he's the most likely nom to triumph.
DAY LEWIS -300
600 to win 200
BEST DIRECTOR
With Chicago's ultra-buzz and Marshall's freshness, he's picking up steam. Oscar may want to pay back the musical genre after Baz Luhrmann's snub last year, and Marshall has won several awards, recently the DGA prize. The PGA win adds buzz, and musicals often win for their directors. I sense he might just pull his first win off.
MARSHALL -160
640 to win 400
BEST ACTRESS
Kidman's presence is too great to lose. She won a Globe, then BAFTA. She continues gaining steam, despite SAG. I doubt Ren?e will slip by Moore-Kidman's clash. Haunting mentally ill perfs are liked. She has pity because of past snubs. Her category confusion hurts, but it's proof of her power in only 31 min. on screen. Expect a triumph. Also, I?m not buying the Zellweger hype, and even though I wish Nicole would win her Oscar for a bettere performance, I think her momentum was only slightly stunted by Zellweger?s SAG win. I am least confident about this one.
KIDMAN -170
510 to win 300
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Walken is nipping at his heels, but Cooper has been a ?lock? for so long, I refuse to admit that he lost his lock status as soon as Walken walked away with the SAG (excuse the puns, I?m in one of those moods).
Cooper-300
900 to win 300
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
With SAG, BFCA, and BAFTA post-Globe, Jones has hit overdrive. Though she's had bad perfs, she was thought snubbed for Traffic. She got raves, and it's an against-type role. She won few crix awards pre-Globes, and, though she lost, Ren?e's buzz supports Jones. Her lawsuit hurts, but Chicago's buzz is huge, and pregnant noms often triumph. Streep's buzz is fading, and Moore can't sustain. The Douglases look to both win Oscars.
ZETA JONES -250
1000 to win 400
POSSIBLE UPSETS
Best Actor: Brody +700
Best Actress: Zellweger +150
GL and hopefully I'll come out with a PROFIT!!!
RECORD: 0-0, 0 Units
Best Picture
CHICAGO -450
1350 to win 300
Chicago is feeling love, and I feel it will win best pic. Only Hours stands in its way. With 4 acting noms to anchor (and Jones may win), its only weaknesses may be in the screenplay category and Gere's snub. With Moulin Rouge! making this possible, a new musical era may be ushered in. The film's anti-media message may hurt, but Hours is even more controversial.
THIS IS A LOCK
Best Actor
Originally was going with Brody @+700, but I'm switching to Day-Lewis. He won the most crix awards, received universal raves, and the SAG win cements his buzz. Gangs got surprising academy love with 10 noms, and Scorcese's buzz should help sustain Day-Lewis. He clashes directly with Nicholson and Brody, but, being in the middle of those 2 (in age and Oscars) he's the most likely nom to triumph.
DAY LEWIS -300
600 to win 200
BEST DIRECTOR
With Chicago's ultra-buzz and Marshall's freshness, he's picking up steam. Oscar may want to pay back the musical genre after Baz Luhrmann's snub last year, and Marshall has won several awards, recently the DGA prize. The PGA win adds buzz, and musicals often win for their directors. I sense he might just pull his first win off.
MARSHALL -160
640 to win 400
BEST ACTRESS
Kidman's presence is too great to lose. She won a Globe, then BAFTA. She continues gaining steam, despite SAG. I doubt Ren?e will slip by Moore-Kidman's clash. Haunting mentally ill perfs are liked. She has pity because of past snubs. Her category confusion hurts, but it's proof of her power in only 31 min. on screen. Expect a triumph. Also, I?m not buying the Zellweger hype, and even though I wish Nicole would win her Oscar for a bettere performance, I think her momentum was only slightly stunted by Zellweger?s SAG win. I am least confident about this one.
KIDMAN -170
510 to win 300
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Walken is nipping at his heels, but Cooper has been a ?lock? for so long, I refuse to admit that he lost his lock status as soon as Walken walked away with the SAG (excuse the puns, I?m in one of those moods).
Cooper-300
900 to win 300
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
With SAG, BFCA, and BAFTA post-Globe, Jones has hit overdrive. Though she's had bad perfs, she was thought snubbed for Traffic. She got raves, and it's an against-type role. She won few crix awards pre-Globes, and, though she lost, Ren?e's buzz supports Jones. Her lawsuit hurts, but Chicago's buzz is huge, and pregnant noms often triumph. Streep's buzz is fading, and Moore can't sustain. The Douglases look to both win Oscars.
ZETA JONES -250
1000 to win 400
POSSIBLE UPSETS
Best Actor: Brody +700
Best Actress: Zellweger +150
GL and hopefully I'll come out with a PROFIT!!!
Strangelove:
Good write ups.
In tonight's Oscar, COOPER FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR is as close to a "lock" as anything I've seen (there I go, using that tainted word).
Not only is COOPER'S performance far an above any of the other nominees, I expect the voters will want to thrwo ADAPTATION a bone -- since it's unlikely to take any other awards. I have noticed that the Academy voters tend to vote for relative newcomers in this category (compared to the likes of Walken, etc. -- COOPER is not nearly as well known.)
ALthough I like and admire WALKEN, his role in a very mediocre mocie (CATCH ME IF YOU CAN) was quite limited. PAUL NEWMAN is always a threat any time he is a nomineee, but ROAD TO PERDITION came out a very long time ago, and NEWMAN has already taken Oscars (he's been snubbed quite a few times, but this performance was not nearly as memorable as year's past). JOHN C REILLY was good in CHICAGO (he's becomng another William Macy "everyman" actor). But if CHICAGO does well in the other categories as expected, it seems voters will want to break up the ballots and reward performances in other categories (CHICAGO was not that good, IMHO).
COOPER is priced a little high at -250 (Millinium) but it looks like an easy wasy to pick up a few dollars. If anyone saw ADAPTATION, you can recognize this perfromance was hands-down the best in this cateogry. Should be an easy ticket to cash.
Easiest win since NORA JONES in the new artist category at this yer's Grammys.
-- Nolan Dalla
Good write ups.
In tonight's Oscar, COOPER FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR is as close to a "lock" as anything I've seen (there I go, using that tainted word).
Not only is COOPER'S performance far an above any of the other nominees, I expect the voters will want to thrwo ADAPTATION a bone -- since it's unlikely to take any other awards. I have noticed that the Academy voters tend to vote for relative newcomers in this category (compared to the likes of Walken, etc. -- COOPER is not nearly as well known.)
ALthough I like and admire WALKEN, his role in a very mediocre mocie (CATCH ME IF YOU CAN) was quite limited. PAUL NEWMAN is always a threat any time he is a nomineee, but ROAD TO PERDITION came out a very long time ago, and NEWMAN has already taken Oscars (he's been snubbed quite a few times, but this performance was not nearly as memorable as year's past). JOHN C REILLY was good in CHICAGO (he's becomng another William Macy "everyman" actor). But if CHICAGO does well in the other categories as expected, it seems voters will want to break up the ballots and reward performances in other categories (CHICAGO was not that good, IMHO).
COOPER is priced a little high at -250 (Millinium) but it looks like an easy wasy to pick up a few dollars. If anyone saw ADAPTATION, you can recognize this perfromance was hands-down the best in this cateogry. Should be an easy ticket to cash.
Easiest win since NORA JONES in the new artist category at this yer's Grammys.
-- Nolan Dalla
wow , too bad I only have a few dollars there, didn't notice they had odds up,
they will get pounded on this wager....
Cooper dropped to -200 and the category is now circled. Max is 250. I have no idea why.
Thanks for the tip in the other book offering a better price.
ND
Thanks for the tip in the other book offering a better price.
ND
Shocker in the best Director category........
RECAP: 4-2, +0.6 units
a 12 unit swing with Marchall losing BEST DIRECTOR which I thought was a lock...obviously the war in Iraq helped THE PIANIST director win it...
RECAP: 4-2, +0.6 units
a 12 unit swing with Marchall losing BEST DIRECTOR which I thought was a lock...obviously the war in Iraq helped THE PIANIST director win it...
