IF SOMEONE COULD POST THE GOLD SHEET, POINTWISE, RED SHEET AND ANY OTHERS FOR THE MASSES OF US WITHOUT ACCESS....I WILL PUT A GOOD WORD IN FOR YOU WHEN I GET UP....OR DOWN STAIRS. THANKS GANG
OUR LADY OF NEWSLETTERS
- Thread starter smax
- Start date
RED SHEET
OCT 18, 2008, VOL 40, NO 8 -- RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE
GEORGIA 31 - Vanderbilt 6 - (12:30 EDT) --
Line opened at Georgia minus 15?, and is now minus 14?.
The 'Dores have had quite a ride, with their 5-0 start, but came crashing down to earth in
last week's 17-14 loss to MississippiSt, in which Vandy managed a paltry 7 FDs & 107 yds.
Now travelling to take on a Bulldog squad, which has shed any pressure situation, thanks to
its loss to Alabama a few weeks ago. Note edges of 29-10 in FDs, 148-1 in RYs, & 458-209
in total yds, in Georgia's win over Tennessee. Thus, Vandy, with its 114th rated offense,
coupled with last week's draining effort, will be up against it. 'Dawgs!
RATING: GEORGIA 89
Georgia Tech 30 - CLEMSON 13 - (12:00) --
Line opened at Clemson minus 4, and is now GeorgiaTech
minus 1. Admittedly, we like to string along with ACC dogs in such affairs, but just can't
ignore the continuing woes of the Tigers, who not only are on an 0-7 spread slide by 67?
pts, but managed just 21 RYs in their latest embarrassment. And to make matters worse,
they may be without RB Spiller (hamstring), have benched QB Harper, & have said goodbye
to head coach Tommy Bowden. The Jackets have unleashed a potent overland game,
& have won their last 2 lined tilts by a combined 65-7 score. Winner covers. Tech!
RATING: GEORGIA TECH 89
So California 71 - WASHINGTON STATE 7 - (3:30) --
Line opened at USC minus 41, and is now minus 42.
Can't get much more in the way of a heavy road chalk than the 6-TD spot in this one, but
until things change, just have to keep cashing in by opposing the futility that is this Cougar
outfit. Now have a 51-11 ppg deficit in lined affairs, & have lost their last 2 home games by
scores of 63-14 & 66-3. They've been bitten by the QB injury bug all season, & have now
lost RS frosh signalcaller Lobbestael for the season. Troy well remembers its last RG, a
monumental flop vs OregonSt. Not the focus that this Coog squad needs.
RATING: SO CALIFORNIA 88
IOWA 40 - Wisconsin 14 - (12:00) --
Line opened at Iowa minus 4?, and is now minus 3?. Almost under
the radar, is the recent demise of the Badgers of Wisconsin, who figured to be among the
elites at season's end. As a matter of fact, they were ranked 11th in the nation on our "Polls"
column in week #1 of Pointwise. Well, try, not only 3 consecutive setbacks, but off their
worst home loss (48-7) in 19 years. May be nice to get away from Madison, but not in
Wisky's case, as it has allowed 31, 38, 38, 34, & 27 pts in its last 5 BigTen road games.
Hawkeyes, in stark contrast, are coming on (28-15 FD edge LW), & have revenge angle.
RATING: IOWA 88
Mississippi State 21 - TENNESSEE 13 - (7:00) --
Line opened at Tennessee minus 8, and is still minus 8.
As has been written many times, the bye week sure comes in handy in numerous situations,
& these Bulldogs were certainly happy recipients of such a break a couple of weeks ago, as
they were off a 38-7 pummelling at GeorgiaTech, as well as a tough 34-25 setback at LSU.
Their smothering of then 5-0 Vanderbilt may augur well for their fortunes from here on out.
Catching the Vols in a Georgia/Alabama sandwich is a plus, as is UT's questionable offense,
which has produced only 11 ppg in its last 4 outings. An upset call.
RATING: MISSISSIPPI STATE 88
Indianapolis 27 - GREEN BAY 17 - (4:15) --
Line opened at GreenBay minus 1, and is now Indianapolis
minus 1?. As we noted earlier in the week, we decided to steer clear of this one for the
time being. But that's the reason for a later publication. The Packers took the measure of
the revenge-minded Seahawks last week, but that was a bit tainted, as they took full advantage
of Seattle QB Hasselbeck's absence. Not the same this time around, with the Colts'
offense clicking, & its defense in full takeaway mold (8 in their last 64 minutes of play).
Packer QB Rodgers still not at 100%, & GB's defensive backfield is hurting. Colts!
RATING: INDIANAPOLIS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): PennSt, BoiseSt, OregonSt, Utah, Missouri -- NFL: Dallas, Houston, Denver
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves):
GaTech (+4 to -1); UConn (+3? to Pick); LaTech (-17? to
-20?); NCSt (+13? to +11?); Boise (-24 to -26); Baylor (+18? to +16?); FlaAtl (+3 to +1); SMU (+14 to
+12?); Monroe (-17? to -19); Lafayette (-3 to -4?) - NFL: StLouis (+11? to +7); Indy (+1 to -1?); SanDiego
(Pick to -1?); Cleve (+10 to +8?); Denver (+4? to +3); KC (+8 to +7); Houston (-8 to -9). - TIME CHANGES:
Okla/Kans: now 3:30; Tex/Mo: now 8:00.
- KEY INJURIES: AF QB Jefferson (head) ??; ArizSt QB Carpenter
(knee) ??; Cal RB Best (elbow) ??; CM QB LeFevour (ankle) probable; Cincy QB Pike (arm) doubtful; Clem
RB Spiller (hamstring) ??; Fresno RB Mathews (knee) probable; GT QB Nesbitt (hamstring) probable; Iowa
RB Greene (ankle) probable; KY WR Lyons (knee) out; Mich QB Threet (elbow) ??; Mich RB Minor (ribs) ??;
MichSt QB Hoyer (shoulder) probable; Navy QB Enhada (hamstring) ??; NC WR Tate (ACL) out; NIU QB
Nicholson (shoulder) ??; Rice QB Clement; SDSt QB Lindley (shoulder) ??; Stan QB Pritchard (concussion)
??; TCU QB Dalton (knee) ??; Troy QB Hampton (knee) out; UCLA RB Bell (knee) prob; Lafayette QB
Desormeaux (knee) ??; VT RB Lewis (ankle) out; WSt QB Lopina (back) prob. - NFL: Buff QB Edwards
(concussion) prob; Cincy QB Palmer (elbow) doubtful; Dallas QB Romo (finger) out; KC QB Croyle (shoulder)
prob; Pitt RB Parker (knee) prob; Seattle QB Hasselbeck (back) doubtful.
THE GOLD SHEET
Oct 16-19 (College)
KEY RELEASES
IOWA by 14 over Wisconsin
ARKANSAS Plus over Kentucky
SAN JOSE STATE by 12 over New Mexico State
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by 15 over Arkansas State
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16
*Florida State 24 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 19?Seminoles have won & covered two straight, as FSU offense (540 YR in last 2 games!) starting to pound the rock. Special game for well-liked ?Nole assistant coach & deposed former N.C. State mentor Amato. Still, inclined to take points with host & resourceful RS frosh QB R. Wilson (3 TDP, 2 TDR, no ints. in his last 2 games).Insiders say injured LB Irving & DT Cash likely back in action for speedy
Wolfpack defense. CABLE TV?ESPN
(07-FLA. ST. 27-N. Car. St. 10...19-19 F.35/124 N.34/96 F.16/28/0/257 N.19/32/3/172 F.0 N.1)
(07-FSU -18 27-10 06-NCS +10 24-20 05-Ncs +12' 20-15...SR: Florida State 19-9)
*TCU 26 - Byu 20?The difference in the ?BCS Buster? candidacies of these two is the fact TCU has had to face (and lose to) Oklahoma, and BYU hasn?t had a similar test. But d.c. Dick Bumpas? hot-pursuing, top-ranked Frog defense might prove an effective weapon vs. QB Max Hall and high-powered Cougar attack. Not convinced BYU ?D? as good as its numbers suggest after steady diet of impotent opposition. TCU loses little with backup QB Jackson (who has led back-to-back wins) in lineup, and Frogs very tough to beat in Fort Worth (18- 2 SU, 14-4 vs. line as host since ?05)!
(07-BYU 27-Tcu 22...T.22-19 T.39/130 B.34/112 B.26/44/1/305 T.24/37/1/222 B.1 T.0)
(07-BYU -7 27-22 06-Byu +5' 31-17 05-Tcu +3' 51-50 (OT)...SR: BYU 5-2)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17
*BOISE STATE 41 - Hawaii 10?UH progressing under new HC McMackin. But won?t be dissuaded from supporting hopeful BCS-buster BSU, playing ferocious defense (no TD last 8 Qs!) to complement an always well-designed, fluid attack. Broncos highly-accurate RS frosh QB K. Moore (72%, 10 TDs, 3 ints.) has the diverse weaponry to exploit undersized Warrior defense that?s allowed 101 combined pts. vs. the top two attacks it has faced (Florida & Oregon State). Fast-starting BSU has outscored opponents 117-23 in 1st H. CABLE TV?ESPN
(07-HAWAII 39-Boise St. 27...H.33-19 B.35/101 H.24/79 H.40/53/2/495 B.22/37/1/231 H.0 B.1)
(07-HAWAII -3 39-27 06-BSU -14' 41-34 05-Bsu -10' 44-41...SR: Boise State 6-3)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 18
Connecticut 26 - RUTGERS 19?Scouts very skeptical that 1-5 Scarlet Knights will be able to pull out of tailspin in second half of season. Punchless Rutgers offense (just 13 ppg in first 5 vs. FBS foes) dearly misses departed star RB Ray Rice, while visiting UConn owns nation?s leading rusher in jr. Donald Brown (178 ypg).
(07-CONN. 38-Rut. 19...R.29-18 C.39/256 R.33/168 R.32/54/1/343 C.10/21/0/140 C.0 R.0)
(07-CONN. -1 38-19 06-RUTGERS -19' 24-13 05-Rutgers -3' 26-24...SR: Conn. 4-2)
Wake Forest 17 - MARYLAND 13?It might be best just to stay away from games involving bipolar Maryland, as divining what kind of effort to expect out of schizophrenic Terps from week to week a crapshoot at best. Wake offense (just 3 TDs, 8 FGs in last 3 games) struggling in red zone, but very veteran Deacon defense (eight 5th-year seniors!) is the most dependable platoon on field.
(07-WF 31-Md. 24 (OT)...19-19 M.57/200 W.41/178 W.22/35/3/219 M.11/20/1/115 W.1 M.2)
(07-WFU -3' 31-24 (OT) 06-Wfu +1' 38-24 05-Mary. +2 22-12...SR: Maryland 40-15-1)
Georgia Tech 23 - CLEMSON 16?With pressure building on HC Tommy Bowden, troubled Tigers switching to RS frosh Willy Korn at QB. The touted Korn?s considerable mobility figures to come in handy vs. swarming Yellow Jackets (4-0 vs. spread), as young, patchwork Clemson OL vs. Tech?s topnotch DL looks like a MAJOR mismatch. Scouts say not to read too much into Jackets? close call vs. Gardner-Webb last week (see Special Ticker). CABLE TV-ESPN2
(07-GA. TECH 13-Clem. 3...G.14-5 G.46/189 C.32/34 C.17/39/1/194 G.7/16/1/67 G.1 C.1)
(07-TECH +3 13-3 06-CLEM. -7 31-7 05-TECH -2' 10-9...SR: Georgia Tech 46-24-2)
EAST CAROLINA 33 - Memphis 31?Poor Pirates need a hug after rising into nation?s top 15 during first few weeks, only to plummet down rankings with 3 straight losses. ECU should find enough holes in improving (but still vulnerable) Memphis defense to get back in win column. But potent Tigers capable of trading points behind juco QB Hall (61%, 559 YP, 6 TDP last 2 games).
(07-E. Car. 56-MEMP. 40...24-24 E.44/491 M.28/77 M.34/61/2/416 E.12/26/0/150 E.0 M.0)
(07-Ecu -5' 56-40 06-ECU -2' 35-20 05-MEMPHIS -7' 27-24...SR: East Carolina 10-6)
DUKE 24 - Miami-Florida 23?Hurricanes? defense is banged up, and their offense (just 216 yards in home win over UCF) clearly a work in progress. Big experience edge for Duke jr. QB Lewis (28 TDP, only 13 ints. last 1+ seasons) over still-maturing RS frosh Miami counterpart Marve (7 ints. last 3 games). Extra week of prep helps crafty new HC Cutcliffe & his blossoming Blue Devils spring upset. CABLE TV-ESPNU
(07-MIAMI 24-Duke 14...M.21-17 M.37/185 D.37/61 M.20/25/2/245 D.18/27/0/241 M.0 D.2)
(07-MIAMI -24 24-14 06-Miami -18 20-15 05-MIAMI -35' 52-7...SR: Miami-Florida 4-1)
*Virginia Tech 19 - BOSTON COLLEGE 13?New BC QB Crane?s shaky confidence bolstered by his 428 YP & 5 TDs (2 pass, 3 rush) during Eagle win at N.C. State. However, he?ll find going MUCH tougher against consistently obdurate Hokie stop unit that?s begrudged foes fewer than 14 ppg over last 4+ seasons. BC?s stout front 7 does match up well against run-oriented Hokie attack, but wouldn?t buck wily old Tech mentor Beamer (17-3 vs. spread last 20 as true visitor!) in anticipated defensive struggle. TV-ESPN2
(07-Bos. Col. 14-VA. TECH 10...B.19-15 V.41/116 B.18/32 B.25/53/2/285 V.15/25/0/149 B.0 V.2)
(07-Va. Tech 30-BOS. COL. 16...B.24-22 V.36/98 B.25/84 B.33/52/2/305 V.21/33/1/202 V.1 B.0)
(07-Bc +3 14-10, Tech -4' 30-16 06-BC +2' 22-3 05-TECH -13' 30-10...SR: Va. Tech 9-6)
SOUTH FLORIDA 42 - Syracuse 10?Host Bulls will be snorting fire after having an extra week to stew over rare home loss to Pitt. Meanwhile, hanging around at Pat White-less West Virginia definitely not a buy sign for sad-sack Syracuse.
(07-Usf 41-SYRACUSE 10...U.26-14 U.56/346 S.17/15 S.21/38/2/276 U.19/28/1/236 U.0 S.2)
(07-Usf -17' 41-10 06-USF -10 27-10 05-Usf -7' 27-0...SR: South Florida 3-0)
IOWA 27 - Wisconsin 13?A tale of two QBs, as Iowa?s Ricky Stanzi is making solid progress and minimizing mistakes, while Wisconsin?s Allan Evridge has regressed to the point he only completed 2 passes against Penn State and has probably lost his job to Dustin Sherer (career 11 of 22, 2 ints., no TDPs). Hawkeyes own the better defense, and RB Shonn Greene is 6th in the nation in rushing (134 ypg). A win here key to Iowa bowl hopes.
(07-WIS. 17-Iowa 13...W.17-13 W.49/166 I.26/59 I.17/37/0/169 W.12/23/1/138 W.2 I.0)
(07-WIS. -7' 17-13 06-Wis. -1' 24-21 05-Iowa +2' 20-10...SR: Wisconsin 41-40-2)
NORTHWESTERN 30 - Purdue 22?Not sure if Purdue QB Painter did enough against Ohio State to retain his starting job, but his performance at the Shoe wasn?t any worse than C.J. Bacher?s effort at home in loss to Michigan State. Wildcat RB Sutton had 139 YR vs. the Spartans, and he gives NW a little consistency absent on Boilers. TV-ESPN
(07-PURDUE 35-N?western 17...N.20-19 P.38/220 N.29/89 N.20/39/3/208 P.24/38/0/182 P.0 N.1)
(07-PURDUE -13 35-17 06-Purdue -7 31-10 05-Nwu +7' 34-29...SR: Purdue 49-25-1)
OKLAHOMA 40 - Kansas 17?During KU?s wonderful 12-1 campaign of 2007, the Jayhawks did not have to face the powers of the Big XII South on the road. Now KU does. Neither team is running as well as it would like, but OU strikes ?sooner? (110-6 in the first Q TY) with its big-play aerial game, while KU must usually be content to chip away. Sooners disappointed after last week, but they?re 11-3-1 vs. the spread their last 15 at home. Jayhawks? 3-0 dog mark L1+Ys duly noted. (05-Oklahoma -6' 19-3...SR: Oklahoma 66-27-6)
BOWLING GREEN 37 - Miami-Ohio 24?Miami has dropped 7 of last 8 SU, and QB Raudabaugh has completed just 22 of 41 passes for 180 yards and 0 TDs in last 2 games. Conversely, BG triggerman Sheehan has thrown for 831 yds., with 7 TDs and just 1 int. in the last 3 games. RedHawk pass ?D? doesn?t bring much pressure & ranks 108th in efficiency.
(07-MIAMI 47-B. Green 14...M.26-14 M.53/262 B.26/25 M.16/24/0/237 B.19/32/1/207 M.1 B.2)
(07-MIAMI -1 47-14 06-Miami +4 9-7 05-Bgu +9 42-14...SR: Bowling Green 35-24-5)
Western Michigan 37 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN 35?In a battle of the two best QBs in the MAC, favor WMU?s Tim Hiller a bit over reigning league MVP Dan LeFevour. Hiller is having a slightly better season, as he?s completed 68% with 23 TDs and just 5 ints., compared with LeFevour?s 65%, 9 TDs & 3 ints. Broncos have an edge running (jr. RB Brandon West 90 ypg rushing) and defensively, and Chips just 1 cover last 6 vs. WMU.
(07-C. Mich. 34-W. MICH. 31...C.22-21 C.43/149 W.35/107 W.27/37/1/311 C.23/38/1/235 C.1 W.0)
(07-Cmu -3 34-31 06-CMU -6 31-7 05-WMU -2' 31-24...SR: Western Michigan 43-33-2)
Nebraska 23 - IOWA STATE 20?Even though ISU disappointed in 38-10 loss last week at Baylor, coach Gene Chizik is forming a useful young nucleus of 6-3 soph QB Arnaud, 5-10 soph RB A. Robinson, and 6-3 jr. WR M. Hamilton. Cornhuskers refused to cave in last week at Texas Tech, but they?ve covered just two of their last ten on the road and lack the power ground game to give them physical control as in the past.
(07-NEB. 35-Iowa St. 17...I.28-17 I.51/134 N.30/130 I.26/51/3/281 N.19/29/1/239 N.2 I.1)
(07-NEB. -21 35-17 06-Neb. -7 28-14 05-NEB. -3' 27-20 (OT)...SR: Nebraska 84-16-2)
*TENNESSEE 20 - Mississippi State 16?Vexed Vols off to their worst SEC start since 1988. But with UT ground game coming to a grinding halt (1 net yd. in 15 carries vs. UGA), doubt raw QB Stephens able to compensate vs. aggressive MSU defense that limited Vandy to just 107 yds. Bulldogs careful jr. QB T. Lee (no int. in 65 passes) has time to find favorite target 6-4 WR McRae (19 catches last 3 games), since Vol DL applying little pressure (10th in SEC in sacks). Croom?s troops 8-3-1 as road dog since ?06.
(07-Tenn. 33-MISS. ST. 21...M.18-14 T.42/211 M.36/135 T.22/36/1/259 M.18/33/0/203 T.0 M.0)
(07-Tennessee -7 33-21...SR: Tennessee 27-15-1)
ALABAMA 26 - Mississippi 21?Since resurgent Ole Miss has been fiercelycompetitive in every game, generous points should work with Rebels, who?ve given Bama fits in past 3 outings (see Looking for an Angle). If Ole Miss minimizes mistakes (15 giveaways so far), Rebels strong-armed QB Snead (1272 YP) & his speedy WRs well-equipped to stretch Bama defense. Doubt Tide?s preferred smashmouth tactics overwhelm a now-healthy, formidable Ole Miss DL (allowing 3.3. ypc). HC Nutt 2-0 as a dog TY, while Bama bankrolldepleting 3-16 as Tuscaloosa chalk since 05. TV-CBS
(07-Ala. 27-MISS. 24...A.27-19 M.31/136 A.40/113 M.22/40/3/284 A.26/40/1/265 A.1 M.0)
(07-Ala. -6' 27-24 06-ALA. -16 26-23 (OT) 05-Ala. -13' 13-10...SR: Alabama 44-9-2)
GEORGIA 27 - Vanderbilt 17?Though previously undefeated Vandy finally tossed in a clinker in 17-14 setback in Starkville (season-high 10 penalties) still interested in even-keeled ?Dores, who?ve covered 5 straight as an underdog. Vandy owns the defensive speed & athleticism (16 ppg, 11 ints.) to contain Georgia, as it has L2Ys. Capable Dore QBs Nickson and/or Adams do some business vs. young UGA 2ndary (ranked 11th in SEC) after generating a paltry 65 YP vs. Miss. State. UGA just 3-8 as DD Athens chalk since ?05.
(07-Ga. 20-VANDY 17...G.17-14 V.38/179 G.35/167 G.16/31/0/201 V.9/15/0/131 G.0 V.2)
(07-Georgia -7 20-17 06-Vandy +14 24-22 05-Georgia -16 34-17...SR: Georgia 48-18-2)
Akron 31 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 30?Hard to recommend EMU, as Eagles have covered just once this season and allow 207 ypg rushing, but Akron is in even worse shape defensively. Yielding just 38 points in last two games (both on the road) shows EMU capable of at least competing defensively, and emergence of soph RB Dwayne Priest (118 YR at Army) helps take pressure off
QB Schmitt.
(DNP...SR: Akron 15-10)
UTAH 37 - Colorado State 9?MWC scouts admit that CSU better than expected. But fundamentals a bit troubling for Rams, whose ?O? slowed to a crawl last week vs. TCU when Frogs took away RB Gartrell Johnson?s ground threat and forced HC Fairchild to switch to backup QB Kubiak in hope of igniting attack (it didn?t work). Utah?s 8th-ranked rush ?D? can do much the same, and Utes (8-3 last 1 laying DDs) have KO power.
(07-Utah 27-COLO. ST. 3...U.24-17 U.49/322 C.34/135 C.16/28/1/140 U.14/22/1/130 U.1 C.0)
(07-Utah -5' 27-3 06-UTAH -12 35-22 05-CSU -4' 21-17...SR: Utah 30-17-2)
Texas Tech 37 - TEXAS A&M 20?For the sixth time in six games TY, Texas Tech rushed for more than 100 yards! While that improved ground game has helped balance the Red Raider offense, it has somewhat cut into the customary dizzying stats of QB Graham Harrell (?only? 20 TDP so far). The A&M defense still porous, but Mike Sherman?s development of 6-5 soph QB Jerrod Johnson (68 YR, school-record 419 YP last week) continues to impress despite Aggies? 1-5 spread mark.
(07-TEX. TECH 35-Tex. A&M 7...T.25-20 A.43/233 T.29/108 T.30/37/0/425 A.17/30/1/133 T.1 A.0)
(07-TECH -9' 35-7 06-Tech +2' 31-27 05-TECH -15 56-17...SR: Texas A&M 34-31-1)
RICE 44 - Southern Miss 37?Revenge-minded Southern Miss hungry for victory after dropping last 3 games, and new HC Fedora?s fledgling Eagle attack should find substantial updraft facing yielding Rice defense. Still, USM?s own stop unit is down TY, so irrepressible Owl sr. QB Clement (66 TDP last 2+ seasons) most likely to fire decisive scoring shots.
(07-Rice 31-s. MISS 29...S.21-14 S.37/189 R.41/169 S.25/45/4/233 R.9/21/1/67 R.1 S.3)
(07-Rice +20' 31-29...SR: Rice 1-0)
Southern Cal 59 - WASHINGTON STATE 7?Al Roker might as well be giving the forecast these days for bedraggled Wazzu, as ?cloudy with highs in the 60s? takes on a new connotation with Cougs (who have already allowed 60+ three times!). And yet another QB injury (latest starter Lobbestael out a month) has Paul Wulff praying that one-time starter Lopina can recover quickly. Final margin depends solely upon Pete Carroll?s compassion.
(07-S. CAL 47-Wash. St. 14...S.28-15 S.35/207 W.27/64 S.30/38/2/302 W.21/43/1/183 S.0 W.0)
(07-USC -25 47-14 06-Usc -16' 28-22 05-USC -29' 55-13...SR: Southern Cal 55-8-4)
Pittsburgh 29 - NAVY 22?Usually reluctant to go against money-making Middies (43-25-1 vs. spread last 69 on board!), as new HC Niumatalolo (3 straight covers) has continued former boss Paul Johnson?s profitable ways. Fundamentals not bad for Pitt, however, as star soph RB McCoy (291 YR in last 2 games) hitting his stride, and veteran Panther defense had extra week to prepare for Navy?s tricky triple-option.
(07-Navy 48-PITT 45 (OT)...N.26-25 N.70/331 P.48/227 P.20/28/1/191 N.9/14/0/166 N.0 P.0)
(07-Navy +4 48-45 (OT)...SR: Pittsburgh 20-13-3)
MICHIGAN STATE 21 - Ohio State 20?MSU is up to the task, as Spartan offense now getting mistake-free production from QB Brian Hoyer (205 ypg passing, 5 TDP just 1 int. last 3 games) to balance star Javon Ringer?s running. OSU offense working in fits and spurts, as Terrelle Pryor has thrown for just 104 ypg and 1 TD in last 3 games after making a splash against Troy. Buckeye RB Beanie Wells seemed to be suffering effects of lingering toe injury vs. Purdue (22 for 94 rushing). TV-ABC
(07-OHIO ST. 24-Mich. St. 17...O.22-9 O.47/229 M.28/59 O.15/23/1/193 M.12/24/1/126 O.1 M.0)
(07-OSU -18' 24-17 06-Osu -14 38-7 05-OSU -6' 35-24...SR: Ohio State 26-12)
TEXAS 30 - Missouri 27?Do or die for Missouri to stay in the national picture. So, with Chase Daniel (3 ints. last week!) expected to be more careful, anticipate desperation effort from potent Tigers. MU (4-2 L2Ys when getting points) will relish the chance to play as an underdog, even though facing practically-perfect Colt McCoy (79.4%, 17 TDs, 3 ints.) is never easy. Tigers have scored in 23 of 24 Qs TY. (05-Texas -14' 51-20...SR: Texas 15-5)
VIRGINIA 27 - North Carolina 26?Butch Davis? young Tar Heels grabbing lots of headlines with 5-1 start, as play-making UNC defense (18 takeaways? 2nd in nation) making things easier. ACC scouts say not to sleep on resurgent Virginia, however. Cav soph QB Verica maturing rapidly, healthy sr. RB Peerman ripped off two long TDR last week, and fiery sr. LB Sintim (7 sacks) sparking defense. Upset possible at Charlottesville, where host UVa has covered 14 of last 17 as dog and last 8 at home vs. Heels.
(07-Va. 22-N. CAR. 20...V.22-20 V.51/197 N.23/60 N.25/38/1/339 V.18/27/0/153 V.0 N.2)
(07-Va. +3 22-20 06-VA. -6 23-0 05-UNC P 7-5...SR: North Carolina 57-51-4)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 28 - Toledo 27?Toledo?s defensive effort in holding Michigan to just 1 TD was its best in more than a year, and the Rockets have held NIU to 21 and 13 pts. in covering last 2 against the Huskies. Toledo QB Opelt completed 33 of 50 passes for 257 YP in upset of Wolverines, and he burned NIU for 384 yds. & 4 TDs last season.
(07-TOLEDO 70-N. Ill. 21...T.35-14 T.59/382 N.32/177 T.26/33/0/430 N.13/27/1/175 T.2 N.2)
(07-TOLEDO -3' 70-21 06-Toledo +12 17-13 05-Niu +9' 35-17...SR: Toledo 28-7)
NEVADA 51 - Utah State 24?Perhaps Nevada 2ndary ought to ask Sen. Harry Reid for federal bailout assistance after allowing NMSU?s Chase Holbrook to torch it for 409 YP last week. But USU doesn?t pose the same threat, as Ag QB Borel?s option antics play into hands of Wolf Pack stop unit (7th vs. run). Utag ?D? ranks 105th, so it should be fun time for Nevada Pistol that?s scored 48 ppg last 3 weeks. Chris Ault still 13-3 as Reno chalk since ?04.
(07-Nevada 31-UTAH ST. 28...N.27-12 N.57/302 U.34/106 N.15/23/0/170 U.11/19/1/106 N.2 U.1)
(07-Nevada -7 31-28 06-NEVADA -29 42-0 05-Nevada -9' 30-24...SR: Nevada 14-4)
Marshall 38 - UAB 30?The main problem (among many) for woeful UAB is that its paper-thin defense can?t hold up for 60 minutes, as evidenced by the 42 unanswered points in 2nd half at Houston last week. A very measured recommendation for poor-traveling but deeper Marshall, which has just 2 SU wins as true visitor since mid-2004.
(07-MARSHALL 46-Uab 39...M.27-24 M.33/177 U.25/107 U.27/50/0/389 M.26/36/0/309 M.0 U.0)
(07-MARSH. -14' 46-39 06-Marsh. +6 31-24 05-MARSH. +3 20-19...SR: Marshall 3-0)
PENN STATE 37 - Michigan 6?Superior Penn State eager to end Michigan?s 8-game series win streak. Nittany Lions could get their title shot if they run the table, and Joe Paterno certainly won?t let his club look past 2-4 Wolverines prior to its trip to Columbus next week. Penn State defense held a much better Michigan offense to less than 3 ypc and 170 YP last season. After gaining just 290 yards in upset loss to Toledo, Wolverine attack might not ?dent the dish? against this year?s Nittany defense. CABLE TV?ESPN
(07-MICH. 14-Penn St. 9...M.25-14 M.56/166 P.29/101 M.16/30/1/170 P.15/31/0/169 M.1 P.2)
(07-MICH. +2' 14-9 06-Mich. -5 17-10 05-MICH. -3' 27-25...SR: Michigan 10-3)
NEW MEXICO 27 - San Diego State 7?NM?s ?O? no smooth-running machine, especially with Lobos now juggling QBs (RS frosh Gruner & juco T. Smith split snaps at BYU) in absence of injured Donovan Porterie. But we?re not brave enough to recommend reeling SDSU, whose lack of a credible ground diversion (Aztecs gaining about 18 inches pc the past 2 weeks) makes new juco QB Westling a sitting duck for Rocky Long?s blitz packages.
(07-N. Mex. 20-S. DIEGO ST. 17...N.19-14 S.43/166 N.38/126 N.18/35/2/239 S.18/26/0/133 N.0 S.2)
(07-Unm -8' 20-17 06-UNM -10' 41-14 05-Unm +3 47-24...SR: San Diego State 20-14)
Oregon State 36 - WASHINGTON 12?Any takers for winless U-Dub, minus Jake Locker for at least another month and with Ty Willingham wondering when axe might fall? We?ll pass on the offer, especially since Mike Riley has won & covered last four vs. old rival Huskies. The fact Beavs were throwing deep with backup QB Canfield while up 59-13 last week vs. WSU makes us even less reluctant to lay heavy lumber.
(07-ORE. ST. 29-Wash. 23...O.18-14 O.55/219 W.31/85 W.16/39/0/249 O.10/22/1/109 O.2 W.1)
(07-OSU -4' 29-23 06-Osu +9 27-17 05-Osu -3 18-10...SR: Washington 57-31-4)
*Arkansas 20 - KENTUCKY 21?Now that Arkansas? sr. QB C. Dick (222 YP, 7 different receivers vs. Auburn) getting hang of new HC Petrino?s system and versatile 5-7 RB M. Smith (176 YR vs. Auburn; 5.5 ypc, 20 catches TY) attracting extra attention, UK will have trouble pulling away from young but maturing Hogs, who have positive vibes following stunning upset on The Plains. Wildcat run offense still sputtering (3.2 ypc; only 62 YR vs. USC), and standout WR Lyons hurting. CABLE TV-ESPNU
(07-Ky. 42-ARK. 29...K.23-22 A.51/338 K.36/170 K.21/39/0/265 A.13/28/2/157 K.3 A.1)
(07-Kentucky +7' 42-29...SR: Kentucky 4-2)
*ARIZONA 30 - California 23?Jeff Tedford?s QB juggling is keeping Ralph Barbieri, Tom Tolbert, and the rest of Bay Area sportstalk hosts guessing as to who might start for Cal, but fact is that neither Kevin Riley nor Nate Longshore (who got the call in last game vs. ASU) inspiring a lot of confidence these days. Would rather trust Willie Tuitama & Arizona spread. Wildcats have won & covered last 5 at home (win margin 43 ppg TY!).
(07-CAL. 45-Ariz. 27...22-22 C.38/186 A.20/21 A.42/62/2/309 C.16/30/1/235 C.1 A.2)
(07-CAL. -14 45-27 06-ARIZ. +13' 24-20 05-CAL. -16 28-0...SR: California 13-12-2)
*LOUISIANA TECH 34 - Idaho 20?Logging more air miles than Barack Obama the past two weeks hasn?t helped La Tech (off long trips to Boise and Honolulu) generate much rhythm, or help QB Bennett?s completion percentage (now down to 39.1!). Sight of leaky Idaho ?D? (allowing 47 ppg) might help, but not sure we want to lay inflated price vs. perky Vandal ?O? that displayed some pop (215 YR & 237 YP) in last week?s cover at Fresno.
(07-La. Tech 28-IDAHO 16...L.22-17 L.53/211 I.26/67 L.16/26/1/227 I.17/49/3/218 L.2 I.1)
(07-Tech -3' 28-16 06-Idaho +3 24-14 05-Tech -9 41-38...SR: Louisiana Tech 2-1)
*COLORADO 31 - Kansas State 24?Colorado 6-1 last 7 as a favorite, but Buffs? offense suffering from attrition in its OL. K-State, meanwhile, saw juco RB Logan Dold (21 for 115 YR) provide some balance for jumbo QB Josh Freeman (12 TDs, 2 ints. TY; four TD runs last week in 44-30 win at A&M), who is getting more time to go downfield than Buff QB Cody Hawkins. CU counting on ground game and defense to eke out win.
(07-KAN. ST. 47-Colo. 20...C.22-20 K.39/249 C.36/188 C.19/41/3/223 K.15/28/0/214 K.0 C.1)
(07-KSU -5 47-20 06-Ksu +3' 34-21 05-Colo. -7' 23-20...SR: Colorado 43-19-1)
OKLAHOMA STATE 45 - Baylor 20?Dangerous spot for OSU, as Cowboys (6-0 for the first time since 1945) can?t afford to look ahead to Texas game on the road next week. Rampaging Oklahoma State has scored 56, 57, 55 & 58 in its four home games TY and is 8-0 its last 8 as a DD favorite. Is Baylor?s impressive frosh QB Robert Griffin (21 of 24, 278 YP, 2 TDs last week) able to carry his proficiency at a tough road site?
(07-Okla. St. 45-BAY. 14...O.29-19 O.51/343 B.28/83 B.29/40/2/226 O.16/21/0/202 O.0 B.0)
(07-Osu -14 45-14 06-OSU -16' 66-24 05-BAYLOR -3 44-34...SR: Oklahoma St. 14-12)
BUFFALO 24 - Army 17??Back to the future? theme playing quite well these days at West Point, as return to option football has resulted in mild Army resurgence (2 straight wins and 3 straight covers) and a stat line reminiscent of Jim Young & Bob Sutton?s old wishbone teams (318 YR & 0 YP last week vs. EMU!). Rampaging FB Mooney can help Black Knights move clock and chains, and not sure depressed Buffalo (off back-to-back gut wrenchers) in frame of mind to extend margin. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*SOUTH CAROLINA 23 - Lsu 20?LSU is off its worst defeat since 2002. But no guarantee ticked-off Tigers bounce back vs. surging USC, with Spurrier?s own ?bailout? program working in 24-17 win at Kentucky last week. Switch to hotshot RS frosh QB Garcia (10 of 14 for 169 yds., 1 TD) sparked an offense suddenly kneedeep at WR. LSU?s green CBs likely chasing again after being toasted by Tebow last week. QB Lee?s play-action less effective with star RB Scott (held to 35 YR vs. Gators) frustrated by Cocks solid front 7 (3.2 ypc). TV-ESPN
(07-LSU 28-S. Car. 16...L.19-16 L.50/290 S.27/17 S.19/42/2/244 L.8/20/1/70 L.0 S.1)
(07-LSU -17' 28-16...SR: LSU 15-2-1)
*TULSA 52 - Utep 39?With innovative o.c. Malzahn?s torrid Tulsa attack producing about a point per minute, Golden Hurricane should eventually outdistance UTEP. Still, no big surprise if quick-trigger soph QB Vittatoe (10 TDP, only 1 int. last 3 games) able to keep Miners (9-3-1 last 13 as visiting dog) inside roomy spread.
(07-UTEP 48-Tulsa 47...T.29-28 T.43/239 U.48/219 T.27/45/2/409 U.23/29/0/351 U.1 T.1)
(07-UTEP +3 48-47 06-TULSA -14' 30-20 05-UTEP -8' 41-38...SR: Tulsa 9-7)
*San Jose State 36 - NEW MEXICO STATE 24?Hal Mumme?s Air Raid took flight last week at Reno, but don?t believe QB Holbrook (409 YP vs. Wolf Pack) & Co. can maintain similar altitude vs. quality San Jose ?D? (ranked 13th...not bad for a WAC team) and lockdown sr. CBs Owens & Francies. Aggie ?D? most vulnerable platoon on field and could be easy pickins? for emerging Spartan QB Reed, now getting very comfy with sr. WR Richmond (8 catches last week vs. USU).
(07-SJS 51-Nms 17...S.23-21 S.44/190 N.25/80 N.30/49/3/318 S.19/31/0/317 S.0 N.1)
(07-SJS -4 51-17 06-Sjs -6 31-21 05-SJS -7' 27-10...SR: San Jose State 13-2)
*Houston 45 - SMU 27?June Jones building for future at SMU, while new HC Sumlin inherited a top C-USA contender in Houston. Much prefer prolific Coug soph QB Keenum (21 TDP, only 5 ints.) to still-learning Mustang true frosh Miitchell (17 TDP, but 16 ints.). And even bigger edge to jelling UH rushing attack over Ponies? punchless ground forces (just 51 ypg!).
(07-HOU. 38-Smu 28...H.32-20 H.60/264 S.29/109 S.19/33/1/351 H.20/30/0/288 H.1 S.3)
(07-HOUSTON -19' 38-28 06-Houston -3' 37-27 05-Smu +12' 29-24...SR: Houston 13-9-1)
*ILLINOIS 42 - Indiana 19?The wheels have come off of Bill Lynch?s Hoosiers. An 0-5 spread mark is directly attributable to a defense that?s yielded 136 pts. in the last 4 games. Illinois has been much steadier on defense, and Illini QB Juice Williams has 772 YP with 4 TDs and just 1 int. in the last 2 games. Contrast that with Indiana QB Kellen Lewis? marks of 925 yds., 5 TDs and 5 ints. for the season.
(07-Ill. 27-IND. 14...In.26-23 Il.55/288 In.35/134 In.26/52/1/263 Il.13/28/2/98 Il.1 In.3)
(07-Ill. -2' 27-14 06-Ind. +8 34-32 05-IND. -6' 36-13...SR: Illinois 42-20-3)
*Air Force 31 - UNLV 20?There?s a little more pizzazz to the Air Force triple option now that true frosh QB Tim Jefferson (started vs. SDSU) & RB Asher Clark (109 YR vs. Aztecs) adding extra pop to Falcon attack. Meanwhile, it?s looking like deja vu at UNLV, as dynamics hauntingly similar for Rebs as they were the last three seasons when each campaign went spinning out of control following loss to rival Nevada. AFA 13-4 vs. spread since HC Troy Calhoun arrived LY!
(07-A. FORCE 31-Unlv 14...U.26-15 A.42/309 U.47/184 U.24/39/0/287 A.9/14/0/123 A.2 U.1)
(07-AFA -5' 31-14 06-UNLV +10' 42-39 05-AFA -13' 42-7...SR: Air Force 9-4)
UCLA 27 - Stanford 20?UCLA not generating many style points these days, but juco QB Craft finally showing signs of grasping o.c. Norm Chow?s playbook. And not sure how much variation there will be in Stanford ?O? this week if QB Pritchard (concussion vs. Arizona) can?t make post, as the Tree opted for pure smashmouth style with backups Forcier & Loukas in lineup vs. Wildcats. Note that Bruins on 3-game cover streak, and now a rather tidy 67% play vs. line (36-18!) last 4+ years.
(07-Ucla 45-STAN. 17...U.24-21 U.50/338 S.26/52 S.27/59/0/331 U.16/29/0/286 U.0 S.1)
(07-Ucla -16' 45-17 06-UCLA -23' 31-0 05-Ucla -7 30-27 (OT)...SR: UCLA 44-31-3)
ADDED GAMES
WESTERN KENTUCKY 24 - Florida Atlantic 20?Since a rare pre-game tirade from FAU?s venerable HC Schnellenberger couldn?t motivate underachieving 1-5 Owl squad in 30-17 home loss vs. Troy, won?t lay any points vs. hard-trying WKU, which amassed 353 yds. in 24-7 loss vs. ranked Ball State. If Toppers competent 6-2 sr. QB Wolke can do better job in red zone, this one decided late. (FIRST MEETING)
LOUISVILLE 30 - Middle Tennessee State 21?Retooling Louisville defense gave up 481 yards at Memphis last week, but resourceful Cards scored TDs on fumble, interception, and blocked-FG returns to upend Tigers. Can?t count on much from containable Middle Tennessee offense (only 17 ppg), but Blue Raiders play enough defense to hang around host L?ville, which is just 1-6 last 7 as home chalk.
(07-LVL. 58-Mtsu 42...L.35-20 L.53/328 M.29/265 L.25/39/0/401 M.14/26/2/290 L.1 M.2)
(07-LOUISVILLE -40 58-42 06-Louisville -31 44-17 at Nashville...SR: Louisville 2-0)
*LA.-MONROE 48 - North Texas 24?We?d almost rather be investing in stocks than in helpless UNT, whose ?D? continues on a near point-per-minute pace (53.3 ppg!). A chance for QB Lancaster & ULM ?O? to take out frustrations after rough scheduling stretch, and note how Warhawks began late-season rallies at just this time past 2 years (11-1 vs. line last 6 of season in ?06-07).
(07-N. TEX. 31-La.-Mon. 21...L.22-17 N.39/171 L.40/130 L.21/45/3/291 N.16/30/1/202 N.1 L.0)
(07-NTU +7' 31-21 06-ULM -7 23-3 05-Ulm -4' 24-19...SR: EVEN 12-12)
*LA.-LAFAYETTE 36 - Arkansas State 21?In key Sun Belt clash, favor revenge-minded ULL, which has been a steamrolling machine on ground TY (nation-leading 331 ypg; 7.6 ypc). Ragin? Cagun?s dangerous dual-threat QB Desormeaux took LY?s 31-pt. blowout loss personally after generating seasonlow 8 FDs. ASU just 1-8 SU last 9 away, and host has covered 3 straight in series. Only second home game for ULL (5 straight covers!).
(07-ARK. ST. 52-La.-Laf. 21...A.33-8 A.62/406 L.27/133 A.17/23/0/275 L.7/20/0/137 A.1 L.0)
(07-ASU -9 52-21 06-ULL -6 28-13 05-ASU -11 39-36...SR: La.-Lafayette 18-17-1)
*TROY 26 - Florida Intl. 22?Troy?s status as team to beat in Sun Belt a bit iffy after season-ending knee injury to QB Hampton, thrusting little-used RS soph Tanner Jones into starting role. Meanwhile, emerging FIU continues to prove recent wins (3 in a row!) no fluke, as QB McCall & Golden Panthers (37 ppg last 3!) getting hang of new o.c. Bill Legg?s spread attack.
(07-Troy 34-FLA. INTL. 16...T.25-15 T.39/299 F.34/81 F.19/41/2/248 T.24/39/0/195 T.0 F.0)
(07-Troy -18' 34-16 06-Troy -10' 26-13 05-TROY -9 18-13...SR: Troy 4-0)
Pointwise
10/16 thru 10/20
College Key Selections
1--Iowa over Wisconsin 38-17
1--Penn State over Michigan 40-13
2--Virginia (+) over North Carolina 33-23
3--Memphis(+) over East Carolina 31-30
3--Tulsa over UTEP 58-24
4--Oregon State over Washington 44-14
5--Army (+) over Buffalo 24-27
5--South Florida over Syracuse 41-10
NFL Key Selections
2--Dallas over St. Louis 30-10
3--Tampa Bay over Seattle 33-13
4--Washington over Cleveland 27-10
5--NY Jets over Oakland 27-20
5--Houston over Detroit 34-20
Powersweep
NCAA
4*- OU
3*- Nevada
3*- Ohio St
2*- FAU
2*- S.Carolina
2*- W.Mich
Underdog
Missouri
Pro
4*- Tenn
3*- Indy
2*- Oak
2*- TB
Totals
3* Pitt/Cincy Under
3* Boys/rams Over
2* 49/NYG Over
2* Balt/Mia Under
2* NWO/Car Under
System: undefeated Fav off of a bye. '02-'08- 15-1
Tennessee
Angles(4)
Tennessee
Pro Stat
Dallas
edit out direct links :admin/20539609e2b081f4/[/url]
CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11* WESTERN MICHIGAN over *Central Michigan
WESTERN MICHIGAN 40-*Central Michigan 28
Western Michigan is on a hot streak, as the Broncos have posted a 3-0-1 spread mark and 35 ppg in the last
month. The offense is in good hands with 6-5 jr. QB Tim Hiller (68%, 23 TD passes and just 5 ints. this season),
who?s thrown for 550 yds., 6 TDs and just 1 interception in 2 prior games vs. CMU. Western?s receiving corps
is deep and talented, as WRs Simmons, Julien & Nunez and TE Ledbetter have all already caught 32 or more
passes. The Broncos balance Hiller?s throws with RB Brandon West, who?s run for an average of 101 yards in
the last 6 games, and caught 24 passes in ?08. WMU ranks higher than the Chippewas in several key defensive
categories, most importantly scoring defense, where the Broncos allow almost a touchdown less per game than
CMU. WMU is in double-revenge mode, having lost SU to Central in each of the last two years, but the Broncos
are 4-1-1 vs. the number in the last six meetings.
10* MISSISSIPPI over *Alabama
MISSISSIPPI 23 - *Alabama 24
Resurgent Ole Miss succumbed to the ?Sport Illustrated Jinx? in 31-24 Oxford loss vs. South Carolina, but believe
the resilient Rebels can bounce back and perform at the same high level reached in 31-30 upset at Florida. SEC
scouts report during the bye week HC Houston Nutt is having his team practice with full pads and focusing on
cutting down on turnovers. Note in its 3 defeats (by combined 15 pts.), Ole Miss has committed 11 TOs (to just
4 for opponents). Nutt says he is pleased how his players have responded to the harder practices when saying,
?They?ve had a great attitude, and I?ve had my antenna up.? Fundamentally, Rebels offense possesses the
balance (156 ypg rushing, 217 passing) and diversity to produce vs. Bama defense that showed some chinks in
2nd H of 41-30 win vs. Georgia. And with Tide ground assault unlikely to steamroll Rebels front 7 (3.3 ypc, 13
sacks), Saban?s crew will be in a 60-minute battle. Bama just 3-16 as Tuscaloosa chalk since ?05.
10* VANDERBILT over *Georgia
VANDERBILT 20 - *Georgia 24
Although the loss at Mississippi State puts a crimp in Vandy?s SEC title dreams, have to continue to be impressed
by the Commodore defense. That unit is allowing just 16 ppg, puts on a tremendous pass rush, and has been
forcing turnovers and providing the offense with good field position. Special teams have contributed as well, as
Vandy ranks 22nd in net punting and D.J. Moore is 3rd in the nation in returning punts (23 ypp). The Georgia
offense was highly touted when the Dawgs were ranked No. 1 in preseason, but production has been a bit
harder to come by in SEC play, where Georgia has averaged 23 ppg in 3 league contests after pouring in 101 pts
in first 2 games this season. One reason things have gotten tougher offensively is that the Dawgs have lost their
top two left tackles to injury. No reason defense and special teams can?t keep Vandy in the game for 60 minutes.
10* *VIRGINIA over North Carolina
*VIRGINIA 26 - North Carolina 20
Now that North Carolina?s star WR/returner Tate (ACC-leading 165 all-purpose ypg) is out for year with a torn
ACL, ACC sources strongly urge taking the still-generous number with suddenly-surging 3-3 Virginia, back in the
bowl picture following dominating 35-20 victory over East Carolina. Previously-stagnant Cav offense is now
grooving behind 6-3 soph QB Verica (50 of 66 last 2 games) and RB Peerman (173 YR vs. Pirates; 186 vs. Tar
Heels LY), operating behind a cohesive OL. Gambling Tar Heel 2ndary (14 ints. but 60%, 232 ypg passing) likely
to get burned deep vs. sizzling Cav attack knee deep at WR. Meanwhile, hard-charging Cav defense (18 sacks),
featuring LB Sintim (7 sacks), will pressure Tar Heel QB Sexton, especially since ground game gains just 3.4 ypc.
And, with the aforementioned Tate sidelined, UVA 2ndary can do more ?doubling? on homerun threat WR Nicks.
Groh?s squad has covered 14 of last 17 as a dog, and last 8 at home vs. UNC.
10* TENNESSEE over *Kansas City
TENNESSEE 23 - *Kansas City 6
While rebuilding K.C. is preparing Brodie Croyle (0-7 as an NFL starter) to return to the starting lineup for the first
time since he injured his shoulder in the season opener, Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher has been at work during
the team?s bye week studying the success of the Dolphins and several college teams in various formations that
make use of the QB in unusual ways. The 5-0 Titans thus plan to have extra weapons in their arsenal with the
return this week of Vince Young. Although Kerry Collins will remain the starter, Young is also expected to see
action, armed with a new group of plays and also sharing the field with Collins at times. However, the Chiefs
dare not forget about the speed of RB Chris Johnson (381 YR), one of the brightest rookies in the league.
Fisher?s underrated ?D? is allowing only 11 ppg, best in the NFL!
TOTALS: N.Y. Jets-Oakland UNDER (43)?Oakland coaching change won?t help, and QB JaMarcus Russell can?t sustain drives. N.Y. offense could be ?Jetlagged? from cross-country trip...Cleveland-Washington UNDER (39-estimated line)?Cleveland?s 12 ppg is the worst production in the NFL; Giants allow 2nd fewest points in the league. It usually takes two teams scoring to get a game over the total.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTHWESTERN (-4) vs. Purdue?Look for Wildcats to bounce back as lame duck Purdue HC Joe Tiller sounds as if he?s ready to give underachieving QB Painter the hook....MISSISSIPPI STATE (+8?) at Tennessee?MSU has covered 3 of last 4 and owns the country?s No. 3 pass defense. Vols a sad 108th in scoring...NEW MEXICO (-14?) vs. San Diego State?Aztec defensive line injuries just keep coming;QBing medical report not a lot better, and they run for the fewest yards in the nation. Lobo RB Ferguson will have a monster day...UTEP (+17?) at Tulsa?Look for Miners to trade TDs all the way in this ?defense-optional? affair. UTEP QB Vittatoe has 825 YP, 10 TDPs & just 1 int. in last 3 games...MIAMI (-3)vs. Baltimore?Ravens represent the least-productive attack the Dolphin defense has faced this season, while the ?Wildcat? set has pushed Miami into the top ten in offense.
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11* WESTERN MICHIGAN over *Central Michigan
WESTERN MICHIGAN 40-*Central Michigan 28
Western Michigan is on a hot streak, as the Broncos have posted a 3-0-1 spread mark and 35 ppg in the last
month. The offense is in good hands with 6-5 jr. QB Tim Hiller (68%, 23 TD passes and just 5 ints. this season),
who?s thrown for 550 yds., 6 TDs and just 1 interception in 2 prior games vs. CMU. Western?s receiving corps
is deep and talented, as WRs Simmons, Julien & Nunez and TE Ledbetter have all already caught 32 or more
passes. The Broncos balance Hiller?s throws with RB Brandon West, who?s run for an average of 101 yards in
the last 6 games, and caught 24 passes in ?08. WMU ranks higher than the Chippewas in several key defensive
categories, most importantly scoring defense, where the Broncos allow almost a touchdown less per game than
CMU. WMU is in double-revenge mode, having lost SU to Central in each of the last two years, but the Broncos
are 4-1-1 vs. the number in the last six meetings.
10* MISSISSIPPI over *Alabama
MISSISSIPPI 23 - *Alabama 24
Resurgent Ole Miss succumbed to the ?Sport Illustrated Jinx? in 31-24 Oxford loss vs. South Carolina, but believe
the resilient Rebels can bounce back and perform at the same high level reached in 31-30 upset at Florida. SEC
scouts report during the bye week HC Houston Nutt is having his team practice with full pads and focusing on
cutting down on turnovers. Note in its 3 defeats (by combined 15 pts.), Ole Miss has committed 11 TOs (to just
4 for opponents). Nutt says he is pleased how his players have responded to the harder practices when saying,
?They?ve had a great attitude, and I?ve had my antenna up.? Fundamentally, Rebels offense possesses the
balance (156 ypg rushing, 217 passing) and diversity to produce vs. Bama defense that showed some chinks in
2nd H of 41-30 win vs. Georgia. And with Tide ground assault unlikely to steamroll Rebels front 7 (3.3 ypc, 13
sacks), Saban?s crew will be in a 60-minute battle. Bama just 3-16 as Tuscaloosa chalk since ?05.
10* VANDERBILT over *Georgia
VANDERBILT 20 - *Georgia 24
Although the loss at Mississippi State puts a crimp in Vandy?s SEC title dreams, have to continue to be impressed
by the Commodore defense. That unit is allowing just 16 ppg, puts on a tremendous pass rush, and has been
forcing turnovers and providing the offense with good field position. Special teams have contributed as well, as
Vandy ranks 22nd in net punting and D.J. Moore is 3rd in the nation in returning punts (23 ypp). The Georgia
offense was highly touted when the Dawgs were ranked No. 1 in preseason, but production has been a bit
harder to come by in SEC play, where Georgia has averaged 23 ppg in 3 league contests after pouring in 101 pts
in first 2 games this season. One reason things have gotten tougher offensively is that the Dawgs have lost their
top two left tackles to injury. No reason defense and special teams can?t keep Vandy in the game for 60 minutes.
10* *VIRGINIA over North Carolina
*VIRGINIA 26 - North Carolina 20
Now that North Carolina?s star WR/returner Tate (ACC-leading 165 all-purpose ypg) is out for year with a torn
ACL, ACC sources strongly urge taking the still-generous number with suddenly-surging 3-3 Virginia, back in the
bowl picture following dominating 35-20 victory over East Carolina. Previously-stagnant Cav offense is now
grooving behind 6-3 soph QB Verica (50 of 66 last 2 games) and RB Peerman (173 YR vs. Pirates; 186 vs. Tar
Heels LY), operating behind a cohesive OL. Gambling Tar Heel 2ndary (14 ints. but 60%, 232 ypg passing) likely
to get burned deep vs. sizzling Cav attack knee deep at WR. Meanwhile, hard-charging Cav defense (18 sacks),
featuring LB Sintim (7 sacks), will pressure Tar Heel QB Sexton, especially since ground game gains just 3.4 ypc.
And, with the aforementioned Tate sidelined, UVA 2ndary can do more ?doubling? on homerun threat WR Nicks.
Groh?s squad has covered 14 of last 17 as a dog, and last 8 at home vs. UNC.
10* TENNESSEE over *Kansas City
TENNESSEE 23 - *Kansas City 6
While rebuilding K.C. is preparing Brodie Croyle (0-7 as an NFL starter) to return to the starting lineup for the first
time since he injured his shoulder in the season opener, Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher has been at work during
the team?s bye week studying the success of the Dolphins and several college teams in various formations that
make use of the QB in unusual ways. The 5-0 Titans thus plan to have extra weapons in their arsenal with the
return this week of Vince Young. Although Kerry Collins will remain the starter, Young is also expected to see
action, armed with a new group of plays and also sharing the field with Collins at times. However, the Chiefs
dare not forget about the speed of RB Chris Johnson (381 YR), one of the brightest rookies in the league.
Fisher?s underrated ?D? is allowing only 11 ppg, best in the NFL!
TOTALS: N.Y. Jets-Oakland UNDER (43)?Oakland coaching change won?t help, and QB JaMarcus Russell can?t sustain drives. N.Y. offense could be ?Jetlagged? from cross-country trip...Cleveland-Washington UNDER (39-estimated line)?Cleveland?s 12 ppg is the worst production in the NFL; Giants allow 2nd fewest points in the league. It usually takes two teams scoring to get a game over the total.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTHWESTERN (-4) vs. Purdue?Look for Wildcats to bounce back as lame duck Purdue HC Joe Tiller sounds as if he?s ready to give underachieving QB Painter the hook....MISSISSIPPI STATE (+8?) at Tennessee?MSU has covered 3 of last 4 and owns the country?s No. 3 pass defense. Vols a sad 108th in scoring...NEW MEXICO (-14?) vs. San Diego State?Aztec defensive line injuries just keep coming;QBing medical report not a lot better, and they run for the fewest yards in the nation. Lobo RB Ferguson will have a monster day...UTEP (+17?) at Tulsa?Look for Miners to trade TDs all the way in this ?defense-optional? affair. UTEP QB Vittatoe has 825 YP, 10 TDPs & just 1 int. in last 3 games...MIAMI (-3)vs. Baltimore?Ravens represent the least-productive attack the Dolphin defense has faced this season, while the ?Wildcat? set has pushed Miami into the top ten in offense.
THE GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
HOUSTON by 19 over Detroit
INDIANAPOLIS by 11 over Green Bay
OVER THE TOTAL in the Minnesota-Chicago game
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19
Tennessee 23 - KANSAS CITY 10?Vince Young is expected to be back in action, but Kerry Collins will remain the starter for 5-0 Tennessee. However,Titan coach Jeff Fisher has hinted Tenn. spent part of its bye week installing a change-of-pace package of plays with Vince at QB, plus a grouping with both Collins & Young (think receiver) on the field at the same time. Meanwhile, K.C. turning back to QB Brodie Croyle (0-7 as a starter; shoulder injury in opener) as part of its youth movement. Fisher?s underrated defense allowing only 11 ppg,led by sturdy DTs Albert Haynesworth (5? sacks) & Tony Brown (3?).
(07-Tenn. 26-K. CITY 17...T.19-17 T.36/148 K.21/89 K.25/43/2/217 T.16/26/0/179 T.0 K.1)
(07-Tennessee -3' 26-17...SR: Kansas City 27-19)
BUFFALO 24 - San Diego 22?Check status of QB Trent Edwards, as Bills? offense was showing good rhythm and avoiding turnovers when he was at the controls. Backup J.P. Losman possesses a big-play knack, but is less consistent. Chargers got their offense going at home in easy 30-10 win over New England. However, the five westernmost NFL teams (Sea., S.F., Oak., S.D. & Ariz.) are 0-6 SU and only 1-5 vs. the spread vs. eastern teams TY, with the lone cover recorded by the Raiders in a 24-23 loss at Buffalo.
(06-San Diego -6 24-21...SR: San Diego 21-11-2)
Pittsburgh 23 - CINCINNATI 13?We?d be reluctant to pick the spot where troubled Cincy would earn its first win of the season even if we knew Bengals had all hands on deck. But with Carson Palmer?s sore elbow making it possible that Ryan Fitzpatrick might have to go against Dick LeBeau?s active Pittsburgh zone blitzers, and with Cincy?s ground game slowed to a crawl (only 3.3 ypc), we?ll wait a bit longer before recommending the Bengals. Note that Ben Roethlisberger is on 10-game NFL win streak in his native Ohio (18 straight victories in the Buckeye State when counting his senior year at nearby Miami University!)
(07-Pitt 24-CINCY 13...P.23-15 P.33/160 C.21/91 P.19/26/1/230 C.23/31/0/205 P.0 C.1)
(07-PITT 24-Cincy 10...P.20-15 P.35/101 C.23/74 P.21/32/2/184 C.17/44/0/175 P.2 C.1)
(07-Pittsburgh -3' 24-13, PITTSBURGH -7 24-10...SR: Pittsburgh 46-30)
MIAMI 24 - Baltimore 13?We have no doubt Ray Lewis and the proud Baltimore defense will be well-prepared for Ronnie Brown and Miami?s ?Wildcat? trickery. But the Dolphins? base offense has been clicking lately largely because of QB Chad Pennington, completing 79% of his tosses the past 3 weeks as he gets more familiar with his new surroundings. Meanwhile, Raven rookie Joe Flacco is finding that life in the NFL is a bit more difficult than with the Delaware Fightin? Blue Hens, as his 3 costly picks last week at Indy have tilted his TD/int. ratio (now 1/7) the wrong way.
(07-MIAMI 22-Balt. 16 (OT)...21-21 B.36/163 M.29/72 M.23/39/0/288 B.15/30/1/182 M.0 B.0)
(07-MIAMI +3' 22-16 (OT)...SR: Miami 5-2)
Dallas 31 - ST. LOUIS 13?Hooray for Jim Haslett and the Rams for their first victory of 2007. However, although their psyche is better, it?s hard to envision them beating the much more talented Cowboys, especially with the vulnerable St. Louis secondary unlikely to be able to handle the Dallas receivers from the get-go. And it?s no secret around the league that the Rams? LB crew is below NFL standards. That?s not good vs. the Dallas RBs and its huge OL, especially with the Pokes in bounce-back mode (check Tony Romo?s finger injury). On the fast track indoors, will side with visitor vs. St. Louis team that is just 1-6 last 7 as a home dog.
(07-DALLAS 35-St. Louis 7...D.28-12 D.33/171 S.21/62 D.21/33/1/331 S.14/30/1/125 D.0 S.0)
(07-DALLAS -13 35-7...SR: EVEN 14-14)
OVER THE TOTAL CHICAGO 30 - Minnesota 20?Adrian Peterson not likely to sneak up on Lovie Smith?s defense as he did last season when running for 350 yards in two meetings vs. Chicago (including a whopping 224 in his breakout game at Soldier Field) when the Vikings swept. But the Bears are a different animal in ?08, especially with Kyle Orton beginning to resemble a genuine NFL QB. The presence of dynamic rookie RB Matt Forte means Chicago won?t abandon run vs. the stingy Minnesota rush defense missing MLB E.J. Henderson. Meanwhile, the disruptive, opportunistic Bear ?D? can harass Gus Frerotte. Chicago ?over? 17-4 at home; Vikes ?over? all three on road TY.
(07-Minn. 34-CHI. 31...C.20-16 M.43/311 C.24/83 C.26/45/2/375 M.9/23/0/133 M.0 C.2)
(07-MINN. 20-Chi. 13...M.21-11 M.34/136 C.17/32 M.18/29/3/236 C.22/38/1/177 M.1 C.0)
(07-Minnesota +5 34-31, MINNESOTA -10' 20-13...SR: Minnesota 50-42-2)
CAROLINA 26 - New Orleans 17?Series trends favor New Orleans, which has covered its last 6 trips to Charlotte. But such angles are not etched in granite in the 2008 NFC South, as Carolina found out last week when its 5-game win streak at Tampa Bay came to a crashing halt. Now in bounce-back mode, the Panthers? normally reliable infantrymen D. Williams & J. Stewart should be able to establish themselves after being non-factors last week when Carolina fell behind so early vs. Bucs. Also foresee a more characteristic performance from the rugged Panther ?D? not used to seeing opposing RBs breaking the century mark, as Warrick Dunn did last week (and which Larry Johnson, L.T.,& Michael Turner could not do earlier TY).
(07-Car. 16-N. ORL. 13...N.23-12 N.28/89 C.28/88 N.29/47/2/252 C.11/19/1/155 C.0 N.0)
(07-N. Orl. 31-CAR. 6...N.22-11 N.39/113 C.18/43 N.24/36/1/260 C.18/36/3/152 N.0 C.1)
(07-Carolina +3 16-13, New Orleans -3 31-6...SR: Carolina 15-11)
NY GIANTS 34 - San Francisco 13?Interesting matchup of the Giants? sack-seeking front seven vs. S.F.?s sack-yielding (23) Mike Martz offense. With the 49ers lacking game-breakers at WR, N.Y. defensive coordinator Spagnuolo is likely to be willing to take lots of chances to disrupt S.F. QB O?Sullivan (7 TDs, 8 ints.) early and often. Prior to their Monday nighter in Cleveland, the G-Men were No. 1 in offense, scoring & rushing, plus No. 3 in defense, not to mention 9-1 their previous 10 vs. the spread. Can?t trust underdog Niners from destructing at key junctures.
(07-NY GIA. 33-S. Fran. 15...N.21-20 N.31/140 S.18/103 S.23/38/2/164 N.18/32/1/139 N.0 S.2)
(07-NY GIANTS -9' 33-15...SR: San Francisco 17-16)
HOUSTON 35 - Detroit 16?One of our favorite lines from the late deadpan comedian Jackie Vernon, when quoting ersatz ?philosopher? Sig Sakowitz, was, ?A sieve might not hold water, but it can hold another sieve.? That comment seems strangely appropriate to the Detroit defense, giving up 37 ppg and 180 ypg rushing prior to last week?s 12 & 135 at Minnesota. Houston?s speedy rookie RB Steve Slaton (343 YR), now backed up by consistent veteran Ahman Green, should be eager to test that lenient unit, allowing Gary Kubiak?s play-action offense to work time and again. WR Andre Johnson (10 for 178 vs. Miami) red hot. Texans 8-4 vs. the spread their last 12 at home; Lions (who still can?t run) only 2 covers their last 13 away. (04-DETROIT -3 28-16...SR: Detroit 1-0)
OAKLAND 17 - NY Jets 16?Heidi reprise!!! It?s actually been 39 years and 8 visits by the Jets to Oakland since that infamous 43-32 victory by the Raiders in the closing seconds in 1968. Moreover, New York didn?t play well in last week?s virtual walkover vs. the Carson Palmer-less Bengals, yielding a fumble TD for the first score, seeing Brett Favre toss 2 ints., and gaining only 252 yards. The tech trends don?t favor Oakland (only 2-11 vs. the spread its last 13 at home). But these Raiders fighting harder and have more offensive talent (albeit it?s still blossoming) than those most of those teams. Home debut of new HC Tom Cable.
(06-NY JETS -11 23-3...SR: Oakland 21-16-2)
WASHINGTON 26 - Cleveland 12?Redskins took the 0-4 Rams for granted last week and let a potential victory get away. But after their only other loss TY,Jim Zorn?s charges bounced back with a 29-24 victory over New Orleans.Clinton Portis (643 YR) should give Wash. plenty of ball control in this matchup, while QB Jason Campbell has yet to throw and int. TY! DE Jason Taylor is back in action, while the Skins secondary is one of the deepest in the league.
(04-CLEVELAND +3 17-13...SR: Cleveland 33-9-1)
Indianapolis 31 - GREEN BAY 20?Peyton Manning?s preseason knee injury is now a thing of the past, as he (5 TDP the last two weeks) and his multi-talented receiver corps were able to burn the banged-up secondary of the Ravens early and decisively last week. Envision the same scenario vs. the hurting Packer back line this week. Kudos to QB Aaron Rodgers (11 TDs, 4 ints.) for toughing it through his shoulder injury the last two weeks. But the fact is that his three career wins thus far have come against opposing QBs Tarvaris Jackson, Jon Kitna, and Charlie Frye. Manning?s scalp will be tougher to get,even at Lambeau. (04-INDIANAPOLIS -6 45-31...SR: EVEN 20-20-1)
*TAMPA BAY 26 - Seattle 10?Mike Holmgren?s swan song as Seattle?s head coach is turning out to be a nightmare of injuries at the WR & QB positions (check status of Matt Hasselbeck). He can look for no relief vs. the tough-tocrack Tampa zone, which has pretty much controlled 4 of its last 5 foes. The Buccaneer offense generates few big gainers, but grisled veterans Jeff Garcia (15 of 20, no ints.) and Warrick Dunn (115 YR) were nearly mistake free in last week?s,wire-to-wire, 27-3 victory over power-running Carolina week ago. TV?NBC
(07-SEATTLE 20-T. Bay 6...S.17-13 S.34/139 T.23/90 S.17/24/0/204 T.20/31/0/194 S.1 T.2)
(07-SEATTLE -6 20-6...SR: Seattle 7-1)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 20
*Denver 23 - NEW ENGLAND 19?Matt Cassel now 2-2 as a starter, with the Pats averaging 18 ppg. No offense to Cassel, but that?s not exactly the same as the recording-setting 37 ppg juggernaut directed by Tom Brady LY.Meanwhile, Jay Cutler is arguably the brightest young QB in the league, with 12 TDs vs. 5 interceptions while running Mike Shanahan?s play-action offense.Yes, Denver has covered only 2 of its last 10 away. But Shanahan is 5-1 vs. the spread his last 6 meetings vs. Bill Bellichick. Pats still capable, but have much to prove. CABLE TV?ESPN
(06-Denver +6' 17-7...SR: Denver 26-15)
KEY RELEASES
HOUSTON by 19 over Detroit
INDIANAPOLIS by 11 over Green Bay
OVER THE TOTAL in the Minnesota-Chicago game
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19
Tennessee 23 - KANSAS CITY 10?Vince Young is expected to be back in action, but Kerry Collins will remain the starter for 5-0 Tennessee. However,Titan coach Jeff Fisher has hinted Tenn. spent part of its bye week installing a change-of-pace package of plays with Vince at QB, plus a grouping with both Collins & Young (think receiver) on the field at the same time. Meanwhile, K.C. turning back to QB Brodie Croyle (0-7 as a starter; shoulder injury in opener) as part of its youth movement. Fisher?s underrated defense allowing only 11 ppg,led by sturdy DTs Albert Haynesworth (5? sacks) & Tony Brown (3?).
(07-Tenn. 26-K. CITY 17...T.19-17 T.36/148 K.21/89 K.25/43/2/217 T.16/26/0/179 T.0 K.1)
(07-Tennessee -3' 26-17...SR: Kansas City 27-19)
BUFFALO 24 - San Diego 22?Check status of QB Trent Edwards, as Bills? offense was showing good rhythm and avoiding turnovers when he was at the controls. Backup J.P. Losman possesses a big-play knack, but is less consistent. Chargers got their offense going at home in easy 30-10 win over New England. However, the five westernmost NFL teams (Sea., S.F., Oak., S.D. & Ariz.) are 0-6 SU and only 1-5 vs. the spread vs. eastern teams TY, with the lone cover recorded by the Raiders in a 24-23 loss at Buffalo.
(06-San Diego -6 24-21...SR: San Diego 21-11-2)
Pittsburgh 23 - CINCINNATI 13?We?d be reluctant to pick the spot where troubled Cincy would earn its first win of the season even if we knew Bengals had all hands on deck. But with Carson Palmer?s sore elbow making it possible that Ryan Fitzpatrick might have to go against Dick LeBeau?s active Pittsburgh zone blitzers, and with Cincy?s ground game slowed to a crawl (only 3.3 ypc), we?ll wait a bit longer before recommending the Bengals. Note that Ben Roethlisberger is on 10-game NFL win streak in his native Ohio (18 straight victories in the Buckeye State when counting his senior year at nearby Miami University!)
(07-Pitt 24-CINCY 13...P.23-15 P.33/160 C.21/91 P.19/26/1/230 C.23/31/0/205 P.0 C.1)
(07-PITT 24-Cincy 10...P.20-15 P.35/101 C.23/74 P.21/32/2/184 C.17/44/0/175 P.2 C.1)
(07-Pittsburgh -3' 24-13, PITTSBURGH -7 24-10...SR: Pittsburgh 46-30)
MIAMI 24 - Baltimore 13?We have no doubt Ray Lewis and the proud Baltimore defense will be well-prepared for Ronnie Brown and Miami?s ?Wildcat? trickery. But the Dolphins? base offense has been clicking lately largely because of QB Chad Pennington, completing 79% of his tosses the past 3 weeks as he gets more familiar with his new surroundings. Meanwhile, Raven rookie Joe Flacco is finding that life in the NFL is a bit more difficult than with the Delaware Fightin? Blue Hens, as his 3 costly picks last week at Indy have tilted his TD/int. ratio (now 1/7) the wrong way.
(07-MIAMI 22-Balt. 16 (OT)...21-21 B.36/163 M.29/72 M.23/39/0/288 B.15/30/1/182 M.0 B.0)
(07-MIAMI +3' 22-16 (OT)...SR: Miami 5-2)
Dallas 31 - ST. LOUIS 13?Hooray for Jim Haslett and the Rams for their first victory of 2007. However, although their psyche is better, it?s hard to envision them beating the much more talented Cowboys, especially with the vulnerable St. Louis secondary unlikely to be able to handle the Dallas receivers from the get-go. And it?s no secret around the league that the Rams? LB crew is below NFL standards. That?s not good vs. the Dallas RBs and its huge OL, especially with the Pokes in bounce-back mode (check Tony Romo?s finger injury). On the fast track indoors, will side with visitor vs. St. Louis team that is just 1-6 last 7 as a home dog.
(07-DALLAS 35-St. Louis 7...D.28-12 D.33/171 S.21/62 D.21/33/1/331 S.14/30/1/125 D.0 S.0)
(07-DALLAS -13 35-7...SR: EVEN 14-14)
OVER THE TOTAL CHICAGO 30 - Minnesota 20?Adrian Peterson not likely to sneak up on Lovie Smith?s defense as he did last season when running for 350 yards in two meetings vs. Chicago (including a whopping 224 in his breakout game at Soldier Field) when the Vikings swept. But the Bears are a different animal in ?08, especially with Kyle Orton beginning to resemble a genuine NFL QB. The presence of dynamic rookie RB Matt Forte means Chicago won?t abandon run vs. the stingy Minnesota rush defense missing MLB E.J. Henderson. Meanwhile, the disruptive, opportunistic Bear ?D? can harass Gus Frerotte. Chicago ?over? 17-4 at home; Vikes ?over? all three on road TY.
(07-Minn. 34-CHI. 31...C.20-16 M.43/311 C.24/83 C.26/45/2/375 M.9/23/0/133 M.0 C.2)
(07-MINN. 20-Chi. 13...M.21-11 M.34/136 C.17/32 M.18/29/3/236 C.22/38/1/177 M.1 C.0)
(07-Minnesota +5 34-31, MINNESOTA -10' 20-13...SR: Minnesota 50-42-2)
CAROLINA 26 - New Orleans 17?Series trends favor New Orleans, which has covered its last 6 trips to Charlotte. But such angles are not etched in granite in the 2008 NFC South, as Carolina found out last week when its 5-game win streak at Tampa Bay came to a crashing halt. Now in bounce-back mode, the Panthers? normally reliable infantrymen D. Williams & J. Stewart should be able to establish themselves after being non-factors last week when Carolina fell behind so early vs. Bucs. Also foresee a more characteristic performance from the rugged Panther ?D? not used to seeing opposing RBs breaking the century mark, as Warrick Dunn did last week (and which Larry Johnson, L.T.,& Michael Turner could not do earlier TY).
(07-Car. 16-N. ORL. 13...N.23-12 N.28/89 C.28/88 N.29/47/2/252 C.11/19/1/155 C.0 N.0)
(07-N. Orl. 31-CAR. 6...N.22-11 N.39/113 C.18/43 N.24/36/1/260 C.18/36/3/152 N.0 C.1)
(07-Carolina +3 16-13, New Orleans -3 31-6...SR: Carolina 15-11)
NY GIANTS 34 - San Francisco 13?Interesting matchup of the Giants? sack-seeking front seven vs. S.F.?s sack-yielding (23) Mike Martz offense. With the 49ers lacking game-breakers at WR, N.Y. defensive coordinator Spagnuolo is likely to be willing to take lots of chances to disrupt S.F. QB O?Sullivan (7 TDs, 8 ints.) early and often. Prior to their Monday nighter in Cleveland, the G-Men were No. 1 in offense, scoring & rushing, plus No. 3 in defense, not to mention 9-1 their previous 10 vs. the spread. Can?t trust underdog Niners from destructing at key junctures.
(07-NY GIA. 33-S. Fran. 15...N.21-20 N.31/140 S.18/103 S.23/38/2/164 N.18/32/1/139 N.0 S.2)
(07-NY GIANTS -9' 33-15...SR: San Francisco 17-16)
HOUSTON 35 - Detroit 16?One of our favorite lines from the late deadpan comedian Jackie Vernon, when quoting ersatz ?philosopher? Sig Sakowitz, was, ?A sieve might not hold water, but it can hold another sieve.? That comment seems strangely appropriate to the Detroit defense, giving up 37 ppg and 180 ypg rushing prior to last week?s 12 & 135 at Minnesota. Houston?s speedy rookie RB Steve Slaton (343 YR), now backed up by consistent veteran Ahman Green, should be eager to test that lenient unit, allowing Gary Kubiak?s play-action offense to work time and again. WR Andre Johnson (10 for 178 vs. Miami) red hot. Texans 8-4 vs. the spread their last 12 at home; Lions (who still can?t run) only 2 covers their last 13 away. (04-DETROIT -3 28-16...SR: Detroit 1-0)
OAKLAND 17 - NY Jets 16?Heidi reprise!!! It?s actually been 39 years and 8 visits by the Jets to Oakland since that infamous 43-32 victory by the Raiders in the closing seconds in 1968. Moreover, New York didn?t play well in last week?s virtual walkover vs. the Carson Palmer-less Bengals, yielding a fumble TD for the first score, seeing Brett Favre toss 2 ints., and gaining only 252 yards. The tech trends don?t favor Oakland (only 2-11 vs. the spread its last 13 at home). But these Raiders fighting harder and have more offensive talent (albeit it?s still blossoming) than those most of those teams. Home debut of new HC Tom Cable.
(06-NY JETS -11 23-3...SR: Oakland 21-16-2)
WASHINGTON 26 - Cleveland 12?Redskins took the 0-4 Rams for granted last week and let a potential victory get away. But after their only other loss TY,Jim Zorn?s charges bounced back with a 29-24 victory over New Orleans.Clinton Portis (643 YR) should give Wash. plenty of ball control in this matchup, while QB Jason Campbell has yet to throw and int. TY! DE Jason Taylor is back in action, while the Skins secondary is one of the deepest in the league.
(04-CLEVELAND +3 17-13...SR: Cleveland 33-9-1)
Indianapolis 31 - GREEN BAY 20?Peyton Manning?s preseason knee injury is now a thing of the past, as he (5 TDP the last two weeks) and his multi-talented receiver corps were able to burn the banged-up secondary of the Ravens early and decisively last week. Envision the same scenario vs. the hurting Packer back line this week. Kudos to QB Aaron Rodgers (11 TDs, 4 ints.) for toughing it through his shoulder injury the last two weeks. But the fact is that his three career wins thus far have come against opposing QBs Tarvaris Jackson, Jon Kitna, and Charlie Frye. Manning?s scalp will be tougher to get,even at Lambeau. (04-INDIANAPOLIS -6 45-31...SR: EVEN 20-20-1)
*TAMPA BAY 26 - Seattle 10?Mike Holmgren?s swan song as Seattle?s head coach is turning out to be a nightmare of injuries at the WR & QB positions (check status of Matt Hasselbeck). He can look for no relief vs. the tough-tocrack Tampa zone, which has pretty much controlled 4 of its last 5 foes. The Buccaneer offense generates few big gainers, but grisled veterans Jeff Garcia (15 of 20, no ints.) and Warrick Dunn (115 YR) were nearly mistake free in last week?s,wire-to-wire, 27-3 victory over power-running Carolina week ago. TV?NBC
(07-SEATTLE 20-T. Bay 6...S.17-13 S.34/139 T.23/90 S.17/24/0/204 T.20/31/0/194 S.1 T.2)
(07-SEATTLE -6 20-6...SR: Seattle 7-1)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 20
*Denver 23 - NEW ENGLAND 19?Matt Cassel now 2-2 as a starter, with the Pats averaging 18 ppg. No offense to Cassel, but that?s not exactly the same as the recording-setting 37 ppg juggernaut directed by Tom Brady LY.Meanwhile, Jay Cutler is arguably the brightest young QB in the league, with 12 TDs vs. 5 interceptions while running Mike Shanahan?s play-action offense.Yes, Denver has covered only 2 of its last 10 away. But Shanahan is 5-1 vs. the spread his last 6 meetings vs. Bill Bellichick. Pats still capable, but have much to prove. CABLE TV?ESPN
(06-Denver +6' 17-7...SR: Denver 26-15)
Power Plays 4*'s
CFB
4* FSU
4* Duke
4* Iowa
4* W. Michigan
4* Nebraska
4* USC
4* n. Illinois
4* Penn State
4* Kentucky
4* Kansas State
4* South Carolina
4* Louisville
4* ULM
NFL (NFL 4*'s 4-1-1 ATS 80% Last 5 Weeks)
4* Tennessee
4* Tampa Bay
CFB
4* FSU
4* Duke
4* Iowa
4* W. Michigan
4* Nebraska
4* USC
4* n. Illinois
4* Penn State
4* Kentucky
4* Kansas State
4* South Carolina
4* Louisville
4* ULM
NFL (NFL 4*'s 4-1-1 ATS 80% Last 5 Weeks)
4* Tennessee
4* Tampa Bay