What does everyone think about the over-under 84.5 ? I personally think that someone is bound to have a real bad round on a very tough course. Many players have stated that Bethpage is one of the hardest courses they have ever played. I know par is only 70, meaning someone will have to shoot 15 over. Any thoughts?
Over-under 84.5
- Thread starter OAKAS
- Start date
A hard course, but still featuring the best players in the world.
One would have to assume that the highest round will be played on Th or Fri, so you can discount two rounds for the most part.
A course with easy . flat greens, and a good chance for rain, will make for plenty of one putts. I.E......plenty of saves.
The only real trouble here, is the rough, and like I said......these guys are the best at the game. These guys will not be "slashing about", so at worst, the rough will cost a guy a shot on a hole. Eliminate the par threes, and add the few holes with decent birdie opportunities, and I say 85 will be a stretch.
I recommend the under, and strongly, at that.
One would have to assume that the highest round will be played on Th or Fri, so you can discount two rounds for the most part.
A course with easy . flat greens, and a good chance for rain, will make for plenty of one putts. I.E......plenty of saves.
The only real trouble here, is the rough, and like I said......these guys are the best at the game. These guys will not be "slashing about", so at worst, the rough will cost a guy a shot on a hole. Eliminate the par threes, and add the few holes with decent birdie opportunities, and I say 85 will be a stretch.
I recommend the under, and strongly, at that.
I like the Over.
With some players starting on the Back 9 tomorrow, they'll play the hardest 3-4 holes first.
It will be easy for someone to get a double bogey early and then lose their concentration and blow up. Plus the slow play will be very frustrating.
With some players starting on the Back 9 tomorrow, they'll play the hardest 3-4 holes first.
It will be easy for someone to get a double bogey early and then lose their concentration and blow up. Plus the slow play will be very frustrating.
In last year's opening round of the US Open, George Frake shot an 84 on the par 70 course.
My bet on who will shoot higher tomorrow:
Derek Tolan, the 16-year-old kid from Highlands Ranch, Colo., who chipped in from 30 feet to birdie the first playoff hole at his sectional qualifying.
Can you imagine the pressure on a 16 year old kid who is playing in his first PGA event on a very difficult course in front of 40K people (and they're loud New Yorkers)?
I'll be surprised if he breaks 90.
FWIW the line is now 85.5 at Oly.
- Jon
My bet on who will shoot higher tomorrow:
Derek Tolan, the 16-year-old kid from Highlands Ranch, Colo., who chipped in from 30 feet to birdie the first playoff hole at his sectional qualifying.
Can you imagine the pressure on a 16 year old kid who is playing in his first PGA event on a very difficult course in front of 40K people (and they're loud New Yorkers)?
I'll be surprised if he breaks 90.
FWIW the line is now 85.5 at Oly.
- Jon
Last edited:
Derek Tolan.......Yes, I would have to agree that he would be the front runner to score high, but he did get here! And he beat some big names to do it.
The under could fall if the wind is up there, too. I don't like to make a wager based on the weather, but that is a factor.
I still see that under as a nice bet.
The under could fall if the wind is up there, too. I don't like to make a wager based on the weather, but that is a factor.
I still see that under as a nice bet.
yyz --
I'm not making fun of the kid, listen he's going to be able to tell his grandchildren that he played in the US Open at 16!! That's something that Tiger Woods can't say.
But it must be incredibly intimidating to tee off at 12:45 (stand around all morning) at that age and have Greg Norman in the foursome behind you and Bernard Langher in the foursome ahead of you.
FWIW in his first practice round (on Monday), he hit only one fairway on the front nine.
And the way he qualified was when he was looking at a certain bogey he holed out a chip from 30 feet to beat pro Mike Weir.
This will give me something to watch tomorrow at work!!!
- Jon
I'm not making fun of the kid, listen he's going to be able to tell his grandchildren that he played in the US Open at 16!! That's something that Tiger Woods can't say.
But it must be incredibly intimidating to tee off at 12:45 (stand around all morning) at that age and have Greg Norman in the foursome behind you and Bernard Langher in the foursome ahead of you.
FWIW in his first practice round (on Monday), he hit only one fairway on the front nine.
And the way he qualified was when he was looking at a certain bogey he holed out a chip from 30 feet to beat pro Mike Weir.
This will give me something to watch tomorrow at work!!!
- Jon
He has never won anything, either.
I don't know if he will have time to be scared, though. He will have some butterflies, no doubt, but still........I think a person is relying on this one player to make or break this wager.
I cannot tell you the last time an 85 was carded in the Open, but it wasn't in the last 7 years. In fact, there are only a handful of 80's carded most years, and sometimes there are none. I will continue to side with history, on this one.
This kid has to know that he has no shot at this thing, and that leaves one or two goals:
Be low AM, and don't embarrass yourself.
It should be something to watch!
Good luck.
I don't know if he will have time to be scared, though. He will have some butterflies, no doubt, but still........I think a person is relying on this one player to make or break this wager.
I cannot tell you the last time an 85 was carded in the Open, but it wasn't in the last 7 years. In fact, there are only a handful of 80's carded most years, and sometimes there are none. I will continue to side with history, on this one.
This kid has to know that he has no shot at this thing, and that leaves one or two goals:
Be low AM, and don't embarrass yourself.
It should be something to watch!
Good luck.
yyz--
Let me throw out another likely suspect: John Daly
From this morning's NY Times:
John Daly....was so frustrated by his practice round Tuesday that he quit after nine holes. "I've been working hard on my game, and I don't have a lot of confidence in it right now," said Daly who played the back nine....Many feel the Bethpage Black layout will favor the longer drivers, if they are accurate off the tee. Daly is among the game's most prodigious hitters, but he is also among the least accurate.
I agree that I can't remember the last time a pro carded 15 bogeys in a single round. But all it will take here would be a couple of disastorous holes. The downside to this bet is that if someone like Daly is playing that badly he might WD rather than finish the round.
Todays action should be interesting, I can't wait!!!
- Jon
Let me throw out another likely suspect: John Daly
From this morning's NY Times:
John Daly....was so frustrated by his practice round Tuesday that he quit after nine holes. "I've been working hard on my game, and I don't have a lot of confidence in it right now," said Daly who played the back nine....Many feel the Bethpage Black layout will favor the longer drivers, if they are accurate off the tee. Daly is among the game's most prodigious hitters, but he is also among the least accurate.
I agree that I can't remember the last time a pro carded 15 bogeys in a single round. But all it will take here would be a couple of disastorous holes. The downside to this bet is that if someone like Daly is playing that badly he might WD rather than finish the round.
Todays action should be interesting, I can't wait!!!
- Jon
Paul Goydos might get you home, eraly!
+8 after 9 holes?
Hole 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Par .. 4 4 3 5 4 4 4 3 4 35
.........5 5 4 5 4 5 5 4 6 43
+8 after 9 holes?
Hole 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Par .. 4 4 3 5 4 4 4 3 4 35
.........5 5 4 5 4 5 5 4 6 43
yyz --
+9 thru 11 holes
At least he made the turn, I thought he might go in the clubhouse after 9 for a hot dog and then go out to the parking lot get in his car and drive away.
I played Shinnecock a dozen years ago right before they played the Open there and that's what I felt like doing. In fact, I picked up my ball after 15 and carried my buddies bag the rest of the way. I normally shoot in the 90s and I was on pace to shoot something like 120 that day. Once I got in the rough (which was often) the only way out was just to chip out. That adds a lot of strokes fast.
- Jon
+9 thru 11 holes
At least he made the turn, I thought he might go in the clubhouse after 9 for a hot dog and then go out to the parking lot get in his car and drive away.
I played Shinnecock a dozen years ago right before they played the Open there and that's what I felt like doing. In fact, I picked up my ball after 15 and carried my buddies bag the rest of the way. I normally shoot in the 90s and I was on pace to shoot something like 120 that day. Once I got in the rough (which was often) the only way out was just to chip out. That adds a lot of strokes fast.
- Jon
Here comes Daly and Tolan
Daly: +4 thru 4 (doubles on the first two holes)
Tolan +3 thru 6
I must admit that at this point I'm much less certain anyone is going to go Over 84.5.
It surprises me that out of 150 guys that one of them just doesn't blow up. I guess that just shows you how good the quality of play is in pro golf.
Daly: +4 thru 4 (doubles on the first two holes)
Tolan +3 thru 6
I must admit that at this point I'm much less certain anyone is going to go Over 84.5.
It surprises me that out of 150 guys that one of them just doesn't blow up. I guess that just shows you how good the quality of play is in pro golf.
SOERRIES, Tony
+7 through 6 holes........I got a bad feling about this guy, and he has the back to play, still.
+7 through 6 holes........I got a bad feling about this guy, and he has the back to play, still.
Tony: 84 with a birdie on 17
I'll be calling his room all night to make sure he doesn't get any sleep before tomorrow's round. :nono:
I'll be calling his room all night to make sure he doesn't get any sleep before tomorrow's round. :nono:
I think you have it cinched. It was real close today, and some of these hacks will just want to get home tomorrow. There should be a couple of 85's out of this tail end bunch of retards.
