Over/Under when we will have a definite winner
- Thread starter toastonastick
- Start date
I should have posted the Luntz memo, rather than the link, as traffic is making access virtually impossible. This is a similar but less analytic report from another blogger site:
We Could Have Made It Up, Easy: National Exit Number
5:50 p.m.
The national number that's floating around right now: 51/49 K/B. Neither terribly surprising nor particularly sexy, eh?
RELATED ENTRIES
Hot, Fresh Polling
5:40 p.m.
CO Bush 50 Kerry 48
FL Kerry 51 Bush 49
IA Kerry 50 Bush 49
MI Kerry 51 Bush 47
MN Kerry 54 Bush 44
NV tied
NH Kerry 53 Bush 45
NJ Kerry 54 Bush 44
NM Kerry 50 Bush 48
OH Kerry 51 Bush 49
OR still too early to get accurate reading
PA Kerry 53 Bush 46
WI Kerry 51 Bush 48
Disclaims a birdie: "*** There appear be problems with exits in the following states that could be tipping numbers toward kerry: MN, NH, VT, PA, VA, CT, DE. described only as 'serious' issues we're looking at. so i would not put too much faith in those results."
Senate races after the jump.
[more...]
RELATED ENTRIES
Exit Polls From GOP Pollster Luntz: Very Kerry
5:25 p.m.
From an email being circulated which uses numbers by GOP pollster Frank Luntz:
Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent
Fla.
Ohio
Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry
Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry
Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)
NM: Kerry plus 2
Nev: Bush plus 1
NH: Kerry by 3
NJ: 8 points for Kerry
Colo: Bush plus 2
Mich: Kerry plus 4
More, including Senate races, after the jump
[more...]
We Could Have Made It Up, Easy: National Exit Number
5:50 p.m.
The national number that's floating around right now: 51/49 K/B. Neither terribly surprising nor particularly sexy, eh?
RELATED ENTRIES
Hot, Fresh Polling
5:40 p.m.
CO Bush 50 Kerry 48
FL Kerry 51 Bush 49
IA Kerry 50 Bush 49
MI Kerry 51 Bush 47
MN Kerry 54 Bush 44
NV tied
NH Kerry 53 Bush 45
NJ Kerry 54 Bush 44
NM Kerry 50 Bush 48
OH Kerry 51 Bush 49
OR still too early to get accurate reading
PA Kerry 53 Bush 46
WI Kerry 51 Bush 48
Disclaims a birdie: "*** There appear be problems with exits in the following states that could be tipping numbers toward kerry: MN, NH, VT, PA, VA, CT, DE. described only as 'serious' issues we're looking at. so i would not put too much faith in those results."
Senate races after the jump.
[more...]
RELATED ENTRIES
Exit Polls From GOP Pollster Luntz: Very Kerry
5:25 p.m.
From an email being circulated which uses numbers by GOP pollster Frank Luntz:
Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent
Fla.
Ohio
Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry
Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry
Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)
NM: Kerry plus 2
Nev: Bush plus 1
NH: Kerry by 3
NJ: 8 points for Kerry
Colo: Bush plus 2
Mich: Kerry plus 4
More, including Senate races, after the jump
[more...]
Bump
Can't access any of the sites for any updates.
*********************************
Olympic:
11/2/2004 7:00 PM Political Party to have the next USA President
105 Democrat -300
106 Republican +250
Can't access any of the sites for any updates.
*********************************
Olympic:
11/2/2004 7:00 PM Political Party to have the next USA President
105 Democrat -300
106 Republican +250
http://www.slate.com/id/2109053/
*******************************
The Luntz Discussion:
From an email being circulated which uses numbers by GOP pollster Frank Luntz:
Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent
Fla.
Ohio
Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry
Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry
Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)
NM: Kerry plus 2
Nev: Bush plus 1
NH: Kerry by 3
NJ: 8 points for Kerry
Colo: Bush plus 2
Mich: Kerry plus 4
More, including Senate races, after the jump
From: [former Dem insider] To: [various people at the company he now works for] Subject: IMPORTANT EXIT POLLS FROM LUNTZ
This is 4 p.m. analysis by GOP pollster Frank Luntz, according to exit polls.Luntz thinks Kerry is going to win.
Turnout overall has been as much about economic security as about national security vote. Kerry is winning economic voters 4 to 1. (Bush wins on national security vote.) Kerry could be headed to 310 or 320 electoral vote. But if Bush carries Fla. or Ohio, Bush can still win. (Networks aren't likely to make a call early because of tight races in Fla. and Ohio.) But . . .
When all is said and done: "Kerry's people must be feeling very confident." Election not over. But based on initial data, Luntz's educated judgment is that Kerry is headed to victory. Unless something happens with late voting. Right now, Kerry is doing about 2 points better in states where expected to be closer.
Looks like economy security more important than Bush knew.
Senate: Looks like GOP picks up 3. Dems pick up 1, for net up 2 for GOP
Thune over Daschle by 4 points. Likely enough to sustain Indian reservations numbers coming in later for Daschle.
GOP picking up N.C. and S.C.
Bunning in Ky.
Oklahoma goes GOP (Coburn)
Plus 3 for GOP.
Castor in Fla. is looking good.
Salazar up in Colo.
********************************
MSNBC Commentator:
WIll the results be within 'the margin of litigation'?"
*******************************
The Luntz Discussion:
From an email being circulated which uses numbers by GOP pollster Frank Luntz:
Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent
Fla.
Ohio
Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry
Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry
Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)
NM: Kerry plus 2
Nev: Bush plus 1
NH: Kerry by 3
NJ: 8 points for Kerry
Colo: Bush plus 2
Mich: Kerry plus 4
More, including Senate races, after the jump
From: [former Dem insider] To: [various people at the company he now works for] Subject: IMPORTANT EXIT POLLS FROM LUNTZ
This is 4 p.m. analysis by GOP pollster Frank Luntz, according to exit polls.Luntz thinks Kerry is going to win.
Turnout overall has been as much about economic security as about national security vote. Kerry is winning economic voters 4 to 1. (Bush wins on national security vote.) Kerry could be headed to 310 or 320 electoral vote. But if Bush carries Fla. or Ohio, Bush can still win. (Networks aren't likely to make a call early because of tight races in Fla. and Ohio.) But . . .
When all is said and done: "Kerry's people must be feeling very confident." Election not over. But based on initial data, Luntz's educated judgment is that Kerry is headed to victory. Unless something happens with late voting. Right now, Kerry is doing about 2 points better in states where expected to be closer.
Looks like economy security more important than Bush knew.
Senate: Looks like GOP picks up 3. Dems pick up 1, for net up 2 for GOP
Thune over Daschle by 4 points. Likely enough to sustain Indian reservations numbers coming in later for Daschle.
GOP picking up N.C. and S.C.
Bunning in Ky.
Oklahoma goes GOP (Coburn)
Plus 3 for GOP.
Castor in Fla. is looking good.
Salazar up in Colo.
********************************
MSNBC Commentator:
WIll the results be within 'the margin of litigation'?"
Last edited:
An Update - Same Blogger:
6:50 p.m.
6 p.m. exit polls -- not internals.
K/B:
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
Missouri 46 54
Ark 47 53
Mich 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
Minn 54 44
Wisc 52 47
IA 49 49
6:50 p.m.
6 p.m. exit polls -- not internals.
K/B:
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
Missouri 46 54
Ark 47 53
Mich 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
Minn 54 44
Wisc 52 47
IA 49 49
Lots of interesting stuff throughout this site (including what to look for in county by county totals in Florida and Ohio):
http://theprof2222.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/2/18628/6065
G'night.
http://theprof2222.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/2/18628/6065
G'night.