Overall and last 5 game power rankings

Fast Eddie

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Nov 16, 2006
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I've created matchup numbers for each game for ncaa hoop. I have 2 sets of overall and last 5 games numbers listed, along with a total. (I am trying a couple different strength of schedule numbers)

the numbers are listed in order of off and def efficiency (points per possesion)**The higher offense the better, the lower defense the better. Then I list the possessions for each team followed by the two sets of power rankings, the total, the projected total, and the average possesions based on each team's numbers.

The totals are not as simple as if the number is higher than the total it's an over play, and vice versa with the under. I have set up a criteria each total has to meet based on possesions, and off/def effiency and the projected total. I will post the total plays for tonight, and the number you should or shouldn't play it at. I will also list the last few days numbers below, so you can take a look at what the numbers were before each game.

When playing sides I break it down into a ranking of plays based on 5 criteria. I don't play anymore units on the top plays, I just use them to rank my plays in order. Here are the way a play qualifies for me.

5-- A home dog that is better overall in my rankings
4-- A home favorite that is at or above the spread in
my rankings.
3-- A road dog that is better in my rankings.
2-- A road dog that should not be underdog by as much
as half the spread, but is not better overall.
1-- A home dog that should not be underdog by as much
as half the spread, but is not better overall.
0-- A road favorite that is above the spread.

I know this is a lot of stuff, I just feel playing on home teams in the long run will generate more success. I'd also rank the teams by overall play, and not just the rankings or percieved value. (For instance I'd rank a Xavier play tonight above a South Alabama play, just because they are a better team. They fall into the same category, but xavier is superior.

Here are the numbers for tonight, I am going to double check the totals, and post in a bit. I hope this makes some sense, and people can use the numbers, any way they wish. Remember that these are just numbers, i'd still cap the game yourself, check line movement, and public play on the games.

I'm always looking for help and feedback. I believe I have found solid numbers, but I am always willing to see how other people look at them or use their own.

100.00% 99.00% 70 ST BONAVENTURE overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
114.00% 105.00% 71 OHIO U -13.4 -16.7 -17.6 -19 152.5 157 71

107.00% 81.00% 76 CLEMSON overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
95.00% 93.00% 72 E CAROLINA 11.2 10.9 17.2 15.6 138 139.2 74

90.00% 96.00% 75 BUFFALO overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
99.00% 101.00% 74 FLA INTERNATIONAL 4.1 5.7 0.7 1.7 145 150.2 75

90.00% 107.00% 62 BALL ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
101.00% 82.00% 68 PURDUE -15.5 -14.5 -22.5 -21.6 117.5 111 65

92.00% 96.00% 72 HOFSTRA overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
101.00% 100.00% 68 FORDHAM -0.9 5.4 -5.9 1.5 133 134.1 70

108.00% 99.00% 71 S FLORIDA overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
92.00% 95.00% 67 RICHMOND 6.1 8.6 6.6 9.4 131.5 131.9 69

109.00% 96.00% 56 GEORGETOWN overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
104.00% 100.00% 75 ALABAMA 0.1 3.6 -9.4 3 135 129.6 65

122.00% 78.00% 69 PITTSBURGH overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
111.00% 84.00% 82 DUQUESNE -8.1 0.1 2 7.5 158 155.5 75

106.00% 110.00% 74 GEORGIA TECH overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
92.00% 109.00% 70 GEORGIA ST 9.3 6.1 8.8 6.3 157.5 163.7 72

94.00% 91.00% 65 IOWA ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
111.00% 86.00% 72 DRAKE -3.3 -5.8 -9.2 -15.3 128 122.9 68

109.00% 103.00% 76 SYRACUSE overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
114.00% 92.00% 73 VIRGINIA -7.1 -4.2 -11.8 -9.3 160.5 174.9 74

98.00% 109.00% 64 WM & MARY overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
101.00% 94.00% 70 VA COMMONWEALTH -18.4 -16.2 -18.3 -14.5 131.5 131 67

107.00% 91.00% 67 KENT ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
98.00% 95.00% 72 YOUNGSTOWN ST 13.1 10.8 11.1 9.7 132 132.3 69

106.00% 77.00% 70 CREIGHTON overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
121.00% 87.00% 69 XAVIER -11.7 -16.7 -10.9 -15.2 135.5 129.6 69

94.00% 104.00% 62 PRINCETON overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
94.00% 109.00% 60 EVANSVILLE 0.9 -2.8 1.2 -4.5 113.5 108 61

79.00% 98.00% 66 LOUISIANA TECH overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
99.00% 88.00% 68 TEXAS TECH -25 -26.1 -27.8 -26 120.5 108.2 67

110.00% 87.00% 76 SOUTHERN MISS overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
108.00% 93.00% 70 S ALABAMA -7.3 -4.8 -13.9 -8 139 150.9 73

107.00% 104.00% 74 UNC overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
99.00% 90.00% 68 MISSOURI ST -6.8 -6.2 -8.6 -7.6 142.5 146 71

100.00% 90.00% 76 TCU overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
92.00% 102.00% 71 SMU 4.8 0.8 9.1 7.2 137 145 74

108.00% 85.00% 64 NEBRASKA overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
108.00% 96.00% 71 W KENTUCKY 9 14.4 7.7 10.2 133 128.5 67

94.00% 87.00% 64 IOWA overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
107.00% 87.00% 63 N IOWA -9.1 -13.9 -11.6 -15.4 111 101.6 63

99.00% 76.00% 71 WAKE FOREST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
114.00% 100.00% 75 VANDERBILT -13.7 -14.4 -7.9 -12.3 147 144.3 73

98.00% 111.00% 60 DENVER overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
99.00% 104.00% 63 COLORADO ST -9.9 -13 -8.9 -15.4 119.5 117.1 62

106.00% 92.00% 77 N TEXAS overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
128.00% 91.00% 66 TEXAS -18.7 -24.4 -19.7 -27.4 156.5 157.2 71

97.00% 100.00% 69 TULSA overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
108.00% 83.00% 69 OKLAHOMA -21.3 -15.6 -23.4 -15.7 129.5 128.7 69

117.00% 73.00% 74 W VIRGINIA overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
104.00% 94.00% 70 AUBURN 6.3 7.7 11.9 11.3 143.5 138.8 72

105.00% 102.00% 65 UTAH ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
113.00% 96.00% 67 UTAH -15.4 -12.1 -13 -12.2 137 135.9 66

85.00% 101.00% 74 LOYOLA overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
85.00% 105.00% 69 LONG BEACH ST -1.8 -3.3 -0.1 -2.3 130.5 130.4 72

102.00% 107.00% 81 PEPPERDINE overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
101.00% 87.00% 71 UC -11.4 -4.7 -14.8 -7.2 155.5 165.6 76

103.00% 101.00% 70 SAN JOSE ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
95.00% 99.00% 69 SAN DIEGO -4.6 -2.7 -6.3 -3.7 134 140.3 70

107.00% 94.00% 71 PACIFIC overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
104.00% 105.00% 74 SAN FRANCISCO -2.2 2.4 -4.5 0.3 150 159.1 72

118.00% 86.00% 61 WASHINGTON ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
110.00% 86.00% 71 GONZAGA -3.8 5.7 -2.7 9.6 131 123.9 66

101.00% 99.00% 66 MARIST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
78.00% 106.00% 70 CANISIUS 16 19.4 19.3 23.7 128.5 124.8 68

110.00% 89.00% 76 DAVIDSON overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
95.00% 91.00% 71 CHARLOTTE -1.4 -8.2 -1.7 -6.6 146 145.5 74

92.00% 96.00% 64 E KENTUCKY overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
105.00% 103.00% 68 MURRAY ST -7 -18 -5.7 -16.9 127 124.3 66

88.00% 105.00% 65 E WASHINGTON overall last 5 new L 5 Line my total Poss
118.00% 83.00% 72 KANSAS -31.3 -25.6 -35.3 -26.4 135 133.6 68

103.00% 93.00% 70 UNLV overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
101.00% 103.00% 69 N ARIZONA 1.3 -3.2 7.3 5.5 139.5 140.7 70

110.00% 100.00% 75 BOISE ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
90.00% 105.00% 66 IDAHO ST 7.9 12.1 9.5 12.4 140 147.4 70

99.00% 106.00% 64 WEBER ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
112.00% 85.00% 74 BYU -26.8 -24.9 -26.9 -28.3 143 141 69

105.00% 85.00% 70 ILLINOIS ST overall last 5 EFF new L 5 Line total my total Poss
100.00% 104.00% 65 E MICHIGAN 10.4 8.3 8.1 6.8 130.5 129.1 68

102.00% 98.00% 61 SAINT LOUIS overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
102.00% 97.00% 72 BOSTON COLLEGE -4.1 -11.1 -4 -12.8 126 127.7 67

99.00% 90.00% 80 KANSAS ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
116.00% 89.00% 68 NOTRE DAME -8.2 -3.9 -12.6 -7.3 148.5 151.9 74

112.00% 92.00% 69 PROVIDENCE overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
109.00% 89.00% 75 RHODE ISLAND -2.7 1.3 3.8 7 152.5 150.4 72

115.00% 89.00% 77 N CAROLINA overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
95.00% 107.00% 76 PENNSYLVANIA 23.3 19 29 25.6 167 174 76

97.00% 97.00% 67 INDIANA ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
98.00% 98.00% 59 MIAMI OHIO -16.5 -21.2 -16.5 -23.5 116.5 109.8 63

101.00% 88.00% 61 AIR FORCE overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
87.00% 109.00% 75 N ILLINOIS 14.9 4 14.1 1.6 127 123.7 68

89.00% 109.00% 65 TOLEDO overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
116.00% 94.00% 69 HOUSTON -12.9 -18.7 -17.1 -24.8 136.5 136.5 67

115.00% 86.00% 68 NEW MEXICO overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
105.00% 104.00% 74 NEW MEXICO ST 1.8 0.5 7.2 6 148.5 152.7 71

114.00% 94.00% 69 MICHIGAN ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
107.00% 96.00% 73 BRADLEY 12.1 8.8 7.3 3.6 150 152.5 71

100.00% 88.00% 68 USC overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
112.00% 85.00% 78 MEMPHIS -3.6 0.6 -8.6 -3.1 142.5 141.8 73

85.00% 99.00% 67 UC overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
108.00% 92.00% 69 SAN DIEGO ST -16.3 -12.1 -18.9 -16.3 125.5 122.9 68

117.00% 86.00% 76 TENNESSEE overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
104.00% 107.00% 74 UT 10.1 12.9 21.5 21.5 167.5 176.6 75

102.00% 100.00% 71 UNC overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
104.00% 103.00% 65 VIRGINIA TECH -11.6 -10.7 -9.7 -9.6 132.5 139.9 68

90.00% 107.00% 69 YALE overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
95.00% 104.00% 64 FAIRFIELD -3.2 -12.1 -5.6 -14.9 127 125.2 67

92.00% 91.00% 75 ST PETERS overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
105.00% 98.00% 79 SETON HALL -5.5 -7 -11.2 -9.9 150 160.2 77

98.00% 98.00% 67 TOWSON ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
87.00% 102.00% 70 DELAWARE -3.4 -5.8 -0.4 -6 125.9 69

102.00% 96.00% 68 CAL DAVIS overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
91.00% 103.00% 69 DARTMOUTH 0.4 -5.3 2.3 -5.2 131.2 69

95.00% 107.00% 69 ARKANSAS ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
100.00% 104.00% 66 NORTHWESTERN -7 -7.1 -7.5 -8 135.5 67

107.00% 90.00% 66 MISSOURI ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
103.00% 89.00% 70 ARKANSAS -18.1 -13.9 -15 -11.5 125.9 68

107.00% 108.00% 74 TENNESSEE ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
115.00% 91.00% 72 INDIANA -29.1 -21.7 -29.4 -22 172.2 73

113.00% 76.00% 66 WOFFORD overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
108.00% 75.00% 70 WISCONSIN -27.7 -26.5 -31.1 -32.7 110.4 68

125.00% 84.00% 72 KANSAS overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
102.00% 88.00% 69 USC 4.7 2.4 10 5.3 140.4 70

114.00% 94.00% 65 ARIZONA ST overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
108.00% 86.00% 65 NEBRASKA -8.1 -8.1 -6.1 -4.7 121.5 65

106.00% 93.00% 68 AUBURN overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
101.00% 102.00% 71 GEORGE WASHINGTON 4.5 4.5 3.3 2.5 142.3 70

109.00% 80.00% 72 ST JOHNS overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
110.00% 84.00% 71 MIAMI -4.7 0.5 -7.7 -1.2 134 72

116.00% 85.00% 69 STANFORD overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
99.00% 88.00% 63 COLORADO 3.4 -6 4.7 -3.8 117.2 66

93.00% 91.00% 73 E CAROLINA overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
103.00% 87.00% 69 GEORGE MASON -21.2 -25.3 -24.1 -29.4 129.2 71

104.00% 103.00% 70 HAWAII overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
92.00% 101.00% 69 SAN DIEGO -3.5 1.2 -4.6 0.2 140.6 70

110.00% 84.00% 69 TEXAS A&M overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
114.00% 96.00% 71 ARIZONA -2.4 -5.2 -2.4 -4.2 143.1 70

95.00% 88.00% 74 MARYLAND overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
99.00% 93.00% 68 VA COMMONWEALTH 0.2 -0.6 -4.3 -3.3 128.5 71

104.00% 81.00% 69 OKLAHOMA overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
102.00% 84.00% 77 TCU 7.6 5.1 6.5 1.7 130.5 73

134.00% 89.00% 66 TEXAS overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
110.00% 77.00% 69 UCLA -1.4 0.9 -3.1 -2.4 133 68

111.00% 103.00% 59 SAMFORD overall last 5 new L 5 Line total my total Poss
105.00% 84.00% 72 FLORIDA ST -20.3 -20.5 -25.7 -25 125.3 66
 

Fast Eddie

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 16, 2006
695
5
0
1 unit each

over Syracuse/Virginia 158.5
over S.alabama/so miss 139
over mizz st/unc wilm 142.5
 

JBBrown2

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 6, 2002
2,126
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41
Birmingham, Alabama
Eddie,

I used your number last year with good success. I had some spreadsheet that manipulated them somewhat. Are you still looking at the NBA cause those worked really well. Thanks for posting again. I'll see if I can find my spreadsheet and let you know what I did if you are interested. I wish I could compile the numbers myself to toy around with them some more. But I'm not sure exactly how you are getting them.

JB
 

Fast Eddie

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 16, 2006
695
5
0
JB,
let me know how you are using them, and maybe I can adjust or try different things. I can do the NBA numbers as well, I've just been concentrating and tweaking the college numbers. I have been tracking totals, I'm hoping the sucess continues now that I'm actually playing them.

I also think there is some potential to the sides, the numbers should get better once league play starts.
 
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