Overvalued Euros?
I?m still not satisfied.
I picked out four World Cup underdogs last week that I thought were worth a spin in their first-round matchups. And all four were defeated. That?s the way the ?Team Geist? ball bounces. I thought many of the traditional Western European soccer powers (some of whom were involved in last week?s picks) were overvalued. Their early success on the scoreboard doesn?t change the fact that, for the most part, the big, bad Euros look flat.
England has been roundly criticized for its effort despite winning its first two games, 1-0 over Paraguay on an own goal and 2-0 over Trinidad & Tobago on a very late pair of markers. We haven?t seen Wayne Rooney play a full match yet, but at +800 on the futures market to win the World Cup, the Three Lions look like they need more than just Rooney?s magic to reach the pay window.
France is also failing to impress at +1200. Thierry Henry was flummoxed in a 0-0 draw with Switzerland, making it four goalless games in a row at the World Cup for the French. A similar result Sunday against South Korea wouldn?t be much of a surprise (and would pay +275 for a draw). France is an old team, held together with veterans from the magnificent 1998 Cup winners. Henry?s international frustrations are bound to grow until he gets some fresh talent running alongside him.
Rebuilding Germany shouldn?t even be in this conversation, but the host country is hanging on near the top of the odds list at +800, even after Wednesday?s narrow 1-0 win over a game Polish side. The Germans have already stamped their ticket for the knockout stage after beating Costa Rica 4-2 in their Cup opener. Before then, Germany will face fellow Group A survivors Ecuador on Tuesday. Ecuador is +6600 to win the Cup; I actually like them better than Germany at this point, but I expect both clubs to hold back in Tuesday?s match ? maybe with a little less recalcitrance on display by the Germans in front of their fans.
Italy is another big Euro club that appeared primed for a collapse on the World Cup stage, given the serious corruption problems that have turned Serie A on its head. But I?m starting to warm up to the Azzurri. They were masterful in their 2-0 opening defeat of Ghana. I?ll reserve judgment on Italy, however, until they face the Czech Republic next Thursday. That?ll be the kind of test that will prove whether Italy is as good as previous years. The Czechs were outstanding in their 3-0 dismantling of the United States.
This version of Team USA doesn?t have the artistry of its 2002 predecessors, who reached the quarterfinal round. The Czechs, meanwhile, played as if they had the ball on a string. At this level of play, ball command and creativity are the hallmarks of a team that has developed beyond mere technical proficiency. The Czechs have it; England, France and Germany do not.
Spain has plenty of finesse, but I?m not about to cut them the same slack I?m willing to give Italy. Yes, Spain dumped Ukraine 4-0 and left me with egg on my face. Yes, they?re on a 23-match unbeaten streak. But the stain of underachievement at the World Cup remains on the Spaniards. This team is good, not great, and not worth +1000 in my humble opinion. I think the likes of Brazil and Argentina would grind Spain into a fine paste.
Of all the Western Euros, I?m digging the Netherlands at +1200. Manager Marco van Basten has done what France?s Raymond Domenech could not: incorporate young players into a mix of proven veterans like Ruud van Nistelrooy. Those youngsters don?t inspire the same misty-eyed devotion as van Nistelrooy, but at this point in time, they?re the gears that keep the Clockwork Orange ticking. It was poetic to see 22-year-old Robin van Persie join van Nistelrooy on the scoresheet Friday as Holland beat the talented Ivory Coast 2-1. I think we?ll see plenty more from both players as the tournament enters the later rounds.
Whether any of these European teams is capable of playing at the high level of the Brazilians or the Argentines remains to be seen. There isn?t a large body of recent past performances for handicappers to work with. On the plus side, as long as there are punters in Europe willing to bet the farm on their home countries, there will be value in fading them.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
I?m still not satisfied.
I picked out four World Cup underdogs last week that I thought were worth a spin in their first-round matchups. And all four were defeated. That?s the way the ?Team Geist? ball bounces. I thought many of the traditional Western European soccer powers (some of whom were involved in last week?s picks) were overvalued. Their early success on the scoreboard doesn?t change the fact that, for the most part, the big, bad Euros look flat.
England has been roundly criticized for its effort despite winning its first two games, 1-0 over Paraguay on an own goal and 2-0 over Trinidad & Tobago on a very late pair of markers. We haven?t seen Wayne Rooney play a full match yet, but at +800 on the futures market to win the World Cup, the Three Lions look like they need more than just Rooney?s magic to reach the pay window.
France is also failing to impress at +1200. Thierry Henry was flummoxed in a 0-0 draw with Switzerland, making it four goalless games in a row at the World Cup for the French. A similar result Sunday against South Korea wouldn?t be much of a surprise (and would pay +275 for a draw). France is an old team, held together with veterans from the magnificent 1998 Cup winners. Henry?s international frustrations are bound to grow until he gets some fresh talent running alongside him.
Rebuilding Germany shouldn?t even be in this conversation, but the host country is hanging on near the top of the odds list at +800, even after Wednesday?s narrow 1-0 win over a game Polish side. The Germans have already stamped their ticket for the knockout stage after beating Costa Rica 4-2 in their Cup opener. Before then, Germany will face fellow Group A survivors Ecuador on Tuesday. Ecuador is +6600 to win the Cup; I actually like them better than Germany at this point, but I expect both clubs to hold back in Tuesday?s match ? maybe with a little less recalcitrance on display by the Germans in front of their fans.
Italy is another big Euro club that appeared primed for a collapse on the World Cup stage, given the serious corruption problems that have turned Serie A on its head. But I?m starting to warm up to the Azzurri. They were masterful in their 2-0 opening defeat of Ghana. I?ll reserve judgment on Italy, however, until they face the Czech Republic next Thursday. That?ll be the kind of test that will prove whether Italy is as good as previous years. The Czechs were outstanding in their 3-0 dismantling of the United States.
This version of Team USA doesn?t have the artistry of its 2002 predecessors, who reached the quarterfinal round. The Czechs, meanwhile, played as if they had the ball on a string. At this level of play, ball command and creativity are the hallmarks of a team that has developed beyond mere technical proficiency. The Czechs have it; England, France and Germany do not.
Spain has plenty of finesse, but I?m not about to cut them the same slack I?m willing to give Italy. Yes, Spain dumped Ukraine 4-0 and left me with egg on my face. Yes, they?re on a 23-match unbeaten streak. But the stain of underachievement at the World Cup remains on the Spaniards. This team is good, not great, and not worth +1000 in my humble opinion. I think the likes of Brazil and Argentina would grind Spain into a fine paste.
Of all the Western Euros, I?m digging the Netherlands at +1200. Manager Marco van Basten has done what France?s Raymond Domenech could not: incorporate young players into a mix of proven veterans like Ruud van Nistelrooy. Those youngsters don?t inspire the same misty-eyed devotion as van Nistelrooy, but at this point in time, they?re the gears that keep the Clockwork Orange ticking. It was poetic to see 22-year-old Robin van Persie join van Nistelrooy on the scoresheet Friday as Holland beat the talented Ivory Coast 2-1. I think we?ll see plenty more from both players as the tournament enters the later rounds.
Whether any of these European teams is capable of playing at the high level of the Brazilians or the Argentines remains to be seen. There isn?t a large body of recent past performances for handicappers to work with. On the plus side, as long as there are punters in Europe willing to bet the farm on their home countries, there will be value in fading them.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
