owls +6, ducks +21

[insider]

While USC does have the best college offense ever IMO, the Ducks also have an excellent offense that is getting better each week in Crowton's new spread offense system which should play into USC's secondary weakness. USC defense seems down some this year and now loses another starting corner in Thomas and best lb Sartz. The Trojans will get the Ducks "A" game before the fired up home crowd. 3 td's is just too much at Autzen.

Owls played a much stronger Navy team even last year losing by only 1 @ Annapolis. Navy is down quite a bit this year with only 6 returning starters. Owls should be better then last year with many key players back and now that they do not play the likes of UCLA and Texas on road. This line is skewed because of this and look for the owls to win outright here. Hatfield also has a killer record at home as a dog.

 

[ferdville]

After 2 games, albeit with subpar competition, I wouldn't even consider thinking about USC's defense. Remember last week everyone thought Arkansas would run all over the Trojans? I would be more concerned about the defenses they are facing. If they continue to score at will, their defense doesn't come in to play. Sartz may be out, but Bing is back. Certainly not saying that laying 21 is a great move here, but USC defense gets alot of practice going up against spread offenses. Not like they are going against a wishbone, etc. Somewhere along the line they will commit a few turnovers that turn in to scores and they won't be able to cover the big numbers. Maybe this week, who knows. Good luck to whatever side you play. USC has had a big run of covers and I will stick with them until the don't.

 

[parlayinn]

thanks for posting insider...hope you can continue the great run from last year

 

[Scott4USC]

Solid analysis insider. :thumb:

ferdville I think it is the other way around. The key to USC beating and covering against Oregon is having them turn the ball over. I think for Oregon to win and cover they can't turn the ball over at all. They also have to put pts up almost every drive. (which they can) Of course you are right that if USC turns the ball over the % to cover high spreads goes down but USC offense is a veteran team so turnovers are not likely to happen. Carroll defenses are great at forcing TO's because they make opposing offenses have LONG drives with many plays which increrase % of forcing a mistake. If USC isn't +1 or higher in turnovers, I think very high probability Oregon covers the spread.

If I was taking Oregon I be very worried about Clemons getting injured. Oregon doesn't have strong OL and Clemons isn't afraid to run and doesn't shy from hits. USC has beat the $hit out of the last 2 starting QB's they faced and since Carroll came to USC starting QB's from opposing teams have been beat up badly. Oregon has not faced USC last 2 years so they have no idea what type of athletes they are facing. Clemons has history of taking on tacklers and he better not do it against USC D. Since this is a big game, I think Clemons is going to go all out which may end up hurting his team. High risk high reward. Don't be surprised if Clemons gets injured. I say it is a 25% probability!

 

[BigSlick]

Does anyone have a number for the O/U? Neither of my books have one up yet - thanks in advance....

 

[Scott4USC]

Does anyone have a number for the O/U? Neither of my books have one up yet - thanks in advance....

Go to pinnaclesports they have o/u's for all the games.

USC/Oregon o/u is 70ts and I think it opened at 66pts.

 

[BigSlick]

damn that's high - I was hoping for somewhere around 65. I may still play the over, just not that heavy.

SCOTT, do you have an opinion on the O/U?

 

[Scott4USC]

damn that's high - I was hoping for somewhere around 65. I may still play the over, just not that heavy.

SCOTT, do you have an opinion on the O/U?

I don't have a read on the USC defense so far this season. This will be the first game the USC D will be tested against a high powered offense. With that said, I lean to the OVER. The problem is USC can score quick, play smash mouth, ball control whatever they want. You just don't know. I think the USC gameplan all year will be to score quick, get up by double digits, then run time off the clock with smashmouth/ball control O.