Pacquiao's popularity pulls in all early action
Evan Korn has written for Ring Magazine and is an editor for the boxing blog www.newyork.fighthype.com.
Manny Pacquiao has attained a rarified status in the boxing world. He is the sport?s best fighter and biggest star. This perfect storm has overvalued Pacquiao in the betting world and his next fight is no exception.
Pacquiao fights Joshua Clottey from Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas on March 13. Clottey is considered among the top welterweights in the world. He?s a sturdy banger who has never been knocked out in 39 professional contests. In his last bout, he lost a controversial decision to Miguel Cotto, who Pacquiao knocked out in his last fight.
The major criticism of Clottey is his tendency to fade down the stretch of fights, which cost him against Cotto and Antonio Margarito. For the Pacquiao assignment, relative neophyte Lenny DeJesus will take over training duties from longtime trainer Kwame Asante.
When veteran fighters like Clottey switch trainers, the impact is often minimal. In boxing circles, however, there is lingering doubt that DeJesus is the man to lead Clottey to victory.
According to Clottey, he knows how to neutralize Pacquiao.
?I plan to go right at him,? Clottey recently said from his Florida training camp. ?There?s no way he?s chasing me around.?
Despite Clottey?s credentials, the betting public has reaffirmed its faith in Pac Man. According to Jeff Stoneback, director of the MGM Grand race & sportsbook in Las Vegas, there has been no early action on Clottey. For a major fight, the dearth of money on the underdog is a rarity.
?Usually, bettors take the underdog at first,? Stoneback said. ?What happens is the professional bettors wait because most of the general public won?t lay 4-to-1, so there will be an accumulation of money on the underdog.?
?With Pacquiao?s notoriety, it?s Pacquiao money coming in.?
The MGM opened Pacquiao as a -450 favorite. A steady stream of money upped the odds to -575, while Clottey is now a prohibitive +425 underdog. Stoneback sees Pacquiao going off at -650 or higher by fight night as wealthy Pacquiao backers flood Vegas to place hefty bets.
If you are thinking about backing Pacquiao, waiting will only serve to lower your bottom line.
Given Clottey?s durability and experience, the best bet is the over (9.5 rounds), which Sportsbook.com has priced at -175.
Long-distance relationship
St. Louis prodigy Devon Alexander is going off anywhere from -400 to -550 against the rugged Juan Urango in the WBC/IBF light welterweight title unification bout on March 6.
Alexander is a slick boxer-puncher and should coast to a decision victory against the shorter, slower Urango. Bet the over (11.5 rounds), which Bodog.com has at -155. The under should only be a factor if there is an early clash of heads between these two southpaws.
Alexander?s lack of dynamic power and Urango?s durability (he has never been stopped) point to this being a distance fight.
Sweet price on Sugar
When it comes to the mega fight between Shane Mosley and Floyd Mayweather on May 1, oddsmakers agree that Mayweather is the odds-on favorite to capture Mosley?s WBA Welterweight title.
Sportsbetting.com has Mosley priced at +325, while Sportsbook.com sees Mosley as a +230 underdog. Mosley at +250 or higher is like buying a Porsche at a Pontiac price. In short, if you're looking for a sweet deal bet "Sugar Shane at the bargain rate.
Weekend picks
-Mike Jones vs. Henry Bruseles: pick the over (EVEN).
-Kendall Holt vs. Kaizer Mabuza: take the under (+200).
-Omar Nino (-125) is the bet against Rodel Mayol.
-Bradley Pryce (-130) is a solid value against Neil Sinclair.
Evan Korn has written for Ring Magazine and is an editor for the boxing blog www.newyork.fighthype.com.
Manny Pacquiao has attained a rarified status in the boxing world. He is the sport?s best fighter and biggest star. This perfect storm has overvalued Pacquiao in the betting world and his next fight is no exception.
Pacquiao fights Joshua Clottey from Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas on March 13. Clottey is considered among the top welterweights in the world. He?s a sturdy banger who has never been knocked out in 39 professional contests. In his last bout, he lost a controversial decision to Miguel Cotto, who Pacquiao knocked out in his last fight.
The major criticism of Clottey is his tendency to fade down the stretch of fights, which cost him against Cotto and Antonio Margarito. For the Pacquiao assignment, relative neophyte Lenny DeJesus will take over training duties from longtime trainer Kwame Asante.
When veteran fighters like Clottey switch trainers, the impact is often minimal. In boxing circles, however, there is lingering doubt that DeJesus is the man to lead Clottey to victory.
According to Clottey, he knows how to neutralize Pacquiao.
?I plan to go right at him,? Clottey recently said from his Florida training camp. ?There?s no way he?s chasing me around.?
Despite Clottey?s credentials, the betting public has reaffirmed its faith in Pac Man. According to Jeff Stoneback, director of the MGM Grand race & sportsbook in Las Vegas, there has been no early action on Clottey. For a major fight, the dearth of money on the underdog is a rarity.
?Usually, bettors take the underdog at first,? Stoneback said. ?What happens is the professional bettors wait because most of the general public won?t lay 4-to-1, so there will be an accumulation of money on the underdog.?
?With Pacquiao?s notoriety, it?s Pacquiao money coming in.?
The MGM opened Pacquiao as a -450 favorite. A steady stream of money upped the odds to -575, while Clottey is now a prohibitive +425 underdog. Stoneback sees Pacquiao going off at -650 or higher by fight night as wealthy Pacquiao backers flood Vegas to place hefty bets.
If you are thinking about backing Pacquiao, waiting will only serve to lower your bottom line.
Given Clottey?s durability and experience, the best bet is the over (9.5 rounds), which Sportsbook.com has priced at -175.
Long-distance relationship
St. Louis prodigy Devon Alexander is going off anywhere from -400 to -550 against the rugged Juan Urango in the WBC/IBF light welterweight title unification bout on March 6.
Alexander is a slick boxer-puncher and should coast to a decision victory against the shorter, slower Urango. Bet the over (11.5 rounds), which Bodog.com has at -155. The under should only be a factor if there is an early clash of heads between these two southpaws.
Alexander?s lack of dynamic power and Urango?s durability (he has never been stopped) point to this being a distance fight.
Sweet price on Sugar
When it comes to the mega fight between Shane Mosley and Floyd Mayweather on May 1, oddsmakers agree that Mayweather is the odds-on favorite to capture Mosley?s WBA Welterweight title.
Sportsbetting.com has Mosley priced at +325, while Sportsbook.com sees Mosley as a +230 underdog. Mosley at +250 or higher is like buying a Porsche at a Pontiac price. In short, if you're looking for a sweet deal bet "Sugar Shane at the bargain rate.
Weekend picks
-Mike Jones vs. Henry Bruseles: pick the over (EVEN).
-Kendall Holt vs. Kaizer Mabuza: take the under (+200).
-Omar Nino (-125) is the bet against Rodel Mayol.
-Bradley Pryce (-130) is a solid value against Neil Sinclair.
