Pac's Picks - Week 7

[PacMan]

2002 NFL Season To Date: (all picks posted at MadJack's)
1x: 5-3 (+1.7 Units)
2x: 19-6 (+24.8 Units)
3x: 2-6 (-13.8 Units)
4x: 1-2 (-4.8 Units)

Sides: 25-12 (+15.9 Units)
Totals: 2-5 (-8.0 Units)
Parlays: 0-0 (+0.0 Units)
TOTAL HALFTIME BETS: 27-17 (+7.9 Units)

Last Week: 4-2 (+3.5 Units)


BUFFALO AT MIAMI
1st Half Line: Miami -2, O/U 23.5

It seems like everyone's got an opinion on this game, and I'm no different. My eyes grew buggy seeing this line. Obviously, this line has been seriously adjusted due to key Dolphin injuries.

Let's start with Fiedler being out. Coming into this season, he had as many INTs as he had passing TDs. His lifetime rating, even considering his good start this season is still under 80. He's not exactly Brett Favre.

Ray Lucas comes in with 14 TDs and 11 INTs lifetime. His career rating is 76.4, only 3 points lower than Fiedler. I'm not so sure losing Fiedler dooms the Dolphins.

Now, we have 2 key WRs listed as Questionable. Chambers likely won't play from what it sounds like. Houston didn't have WRs along the lines of Chambers or Gadsden, and they put up 24 points against the Bills last week, and almost won the game.

The Bills have played three road games. They were tied vs. the Vikings in the first game, and down a TD in both the Broncos and Texans games. Not exactly stellar.

The Dolphins have played three home games. They outscored their opponents 57-10 in the first half of those games, with a 13-3 lead over the Jets being the closest first half.

The Bills have two outstanding WRs, and a great QB. Those great WRs will be lined up against Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison. Not too shaby. Zach Thomas will help keep Travis Henry in check. And if the Texans can put up 24 on the Bills, Lucas, Ricky Williams and even backup WRs can do at least that. I think the books took a few too many points off of this line considering how dominant the Dolphins are at home.

PLAY: 1st Half Miami -2 (-110) 4x


CAROLINA AT ATLANTA
1st Half Line: Atlanta -3, O/U 18.0

Here we have a home team who hasn't been down at halftime yet, who would be 4-1-1 ATS if they were -3 halftime each game thus far, who is outscoring their opponents 64-29 in the first half. The road team, while also doing well so far in first halfs, is falling apart. They (Carolina) are averaging less than 7 points of offense in the first half.

We have a game where both teams might be without their starting QBs (Carolina is for sure). While Carolina's backup was the starter last year, there is a reason Peete was named the starter this season - Weinke has a lot of developing yet to do. Michael Vick is having a great season, and if he plays with his sprained non-throwing shoulder, I think he will be fine. I don't imagine he'll start against the sack-happy Panthers, but Doug Johnson isn't that bad. He performed very well last week, and has the benefit of playing at home, in friendly confines.

With nearly one fourth of Carolina's team on the injured list, with Carolina's kicking problems, and with each of these teams apparently headed in different directons, I think a wager is justified on Atlanta.

PLAY: 1st Half Atlanta -3 (even) 3x - Olympic's line


HOUSTON AT CLEVELAND
1st Half Line: Cleveland -5, O/U 18.0

One of Houston's big problems this season is their offensive line. It's terrible. Carr has been sacked 31 times in 5 games. Ouch.

On paper, Cleveland has a good defense. However, they've only managed 6 sacks in as many games so far, and are allowing nearly twice as many rushing yards as they gain.

Tim Couch is getting booed in his own stadium, and it is bothering him. I don't see him as being mature enough yet to stand up and have a big game here. Toss in the fact that Cleveland has scored a total of 13 points in the first half of their last four games, and I like my chances with the Texans covering being down 3 or 4.

PLAY: 1st Half Houston +5 (-110) 2x


WASHINGTON AT GREEN BAY
1st Half Line: Green Bay -4, O/U 24.0

We have a healthy Brett Favre, at home, versus one of the worst first half teams this season. The Redskins have stunk up the first half of every game this season. They haven't even been tied at halftime yet. Washington shows up in Lambeau, starting Patrick Ramsey, who helped his team lose last week by throwing four picks. I don't think Favre lets himself or the team have a letdown here after beating the Pats last week. Favre shows up for every game.

PLAY: 1st Half Green Bay -4 (-110) 3x


I've got a few more games that I'm looking at, so I will probably be back again before Sunday.

Good luck.

 

[PacMan]

ADDING...

ADDING...

SEATTLE AT SAINT LOUIS
1st Half Line: St Louis -3, O/U 22.5

This seems to be one of those games where I'm just gonna take the halftime results and throw them out. In case you want to hear them, Seattle has led at halftime in four of their five games. The Rams have led once in six games. However, the Rams have more total yards, first downs, time of possession and have a better rushing average than their opponents. The Seahawks are the opposite on all of those.

So far this season, Seattle is giving up an average of 173.4 rushing yards per game, at an average 5.3 yards a clip. Rams may have a young, unproven QB, but that's how Warner started. By the way, Warner, who is obviously not playing, has 1 passing TD and 8 picks so far this season. Bulger has three times the TDs, in just one game.

Seattle has a banged up Shaun Alexander, a solid, if unimpressive QB, and some OK receivers. The Rams have a healthy, previous-MVP winning Marshall Faulk, an unproven QB (but playing at home), and pretty darn good receivers, whose speed really shines on the home turf. Coaches are pleased with Orlando Pace's recovery, and he will most likely start. Oh yeah, and did I mention the Rams have Marshall Faulk?

PLAY: 1st Half St Louis -3 (even) 3x - Olympic's line

Good luck.

 

[Mickey's Picks]

Like your picks PacMan, particularly the first half angles.

Many of these games in my mind are much more predictable and reliable (if there is such a thing in football) from a first half as opposed to full game perspective. Far too many instances (several games every week) in the NFL of late game dramatics which leaves the final outcomes of these games, straight-up and pointspread wise, still open until the final ticks. Don't know about you but I've lost and sweated many games where my selection controlled the whole game only to turn to shit during the final 5-10 minutes of pull out all the stops death battles. That's why I much prefer to focus on the first half if I think I've found the right spot. It also frees up your afternoon as you don't have to sit around for the full 3 hours to know if you've cashed a ticket.

Will also be on Miami and St. Louis in the first half, Miami for all the reasons you stated and St. Louis because getting that monkey off their back last week was so important and I expect them to build on that against a weak opponent. I look to a big win by St. Louis, easily covering the 5 points and if that is to happen it should be very apparent by the first half so I'd rather just give the 3 points at that point and be done with it.

Another game I'm taking which you should also consider is Philly minus 1'. I expect an inspired effort by this team and see them coming out strongly in much the way they did on Monday night against Washington after their other disappointing road loss to Tennessee. Better to take my chances in the first half than have to wait all game sweating the hook on the three points.

 

[PacMan]

Re: First Halves and Philly

Re: First Halves and Philly

MP: Agreed on the first half angles. There are certainly benefits and drawbacks to them though. For example, what if the opponent returns an interception or kickoff/punt for a touchdown in the first half? That can make it really tough to get those points back in a much shorter timeframe. However, first halves should be a bit more predictable, as teams generally script their first 15 or so plays. If you can get a feeling as to what they are planning, that helps you much more in the first half, where they are unlikely to abandon their gameplan so early in the game. Also, you don't have quite so many of those sloppy backdoor covers when the leading team just goes into a prevent defense. (I've always wondered, why does the "prevent" defense yield so many backdoor TDs anyway? What is it preventing? Me from winning money? But I digress...)

As far as Philly, that was on my list, but after looking deeper into it, the line looks about right. I'm not sure there is a 60% chance they cover what amounts to 3 points in the first half, against a hot defense and a coach who has recently beaten them in the Vet. It's still a pass for me.

Good luck.

 

[Mickey's Picks]

No debate with your comments as there are negatives to every betting angle. Guess it depends on which side your on. Last week for instance there was debate until the final minutes whether Minnesota would even win versus Detroit much less cover the 4 points, which they ultimately did. If you were on Detroit a first half bet was a winner for you and was the type of game I mentioned where Detroit backers were covering all game until to lose the cover in the waning minutes.

Prevent defenses are nothing more than a coaches security blanket which they can wrap themselves in if it doesn't work, which is usually the case. Since every coach basically uses the same approach they can't be criticized for using it too. Takes a very large set of mangos to continue to be aggressive. Still waiting for some coach to step up. Prevent defenses prevent wins.

Still think Philly is the play but that's my gut. This line just seems too obvious. Luck to you also.