Pac's Picks - Week 9

[PacMan]

2002 NFL Season To Date: (all picks posted at MadJack's)
1x: 5-3 (+1.7 Units)
2x: 20-6 (+26.8 Units)
3x: 7-9-1 (-8.7 Units)
4x: 1-3 (-9.2 Units)

Sides: 31-16-1 (+18.6 Units)
Totals: 2-5 (-8.0 Units)
Parlays: 0-0 (+0.0 Units)
TOTAL HALFTIME BETS: 33-21-1 (+10.6 Units)

Last Week: 3-2-1 (+2.1 Units)

Looking back at my selections (this was written after I made them), I noticed something rather scary - it's chock full of favorites! While the dogs have barked loudly all season long, I see several games where the favorite appears to have an advantage against the spread - at least in the first half.

MINNESOTA AT TAMPA BAY
1st Half Line: Tampa -3.5, O/U 18.5

On one hand, we have a Tampa Bay offense that has been shut down the last two games, not scoring a single TD on offense. Their top two QBs are questionable, and they have a mediocre running game. They come in playing a fairly hot and healthy Vikings team.

On the other hand, we have a terrible road team, who has been consistantly mauled when visiting Tampa. Sure, the coaches have changed, and some of the players have changed. Tampas defense still tops the NFL statistically, and that spells t-r-o-u-b-l-e for the Vikings.

Look for the thirsty Bucs offense to finally open up against a weak defense, regardless of which former starting QB is in. Look for their defense to keep pressure on Culpepper and force him to make mistakes.

PLAY: 1st Half Tampa Bay -3.5 (-110) 3x


PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO
1st Half Line: Philadelphia -3.5, O/U 19.5

First of all, remember that this is essentially at a neutral field. The Eagles, whose offense has been held in check the past two weeks, come to play a team stuggling badly at offense and defense. The Eagles simply have the better offense and defense, and have been a good road team the past couple of years.

I know about the trends of betting home dogs (and dogs in general this season), and betting against MNF winners. I'd rather bet the team I think will beat the spread, which is Philadelphia.

PLAY: 1st Half Philadelphia -3.5 (-105) 3x - Olympic's line


PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND
1st Half Line: Pittsburgh -1, O/U 21.5

I'm confused by this line. Sure, Cleveland had a surprising good season last year, and sure, they've won two in a row. But, those two games were against the Jets and Texans, and now they're facing perhaps the hottest team in the AFC.

What the Steelers have done in the four games Maddox has started is a testimony to them as a team. I don't think Maddox is the next Warner or Brady. He just doesn't make as many stupid mistakes as Kordell, and his teammates do the rest.

I know Cleveland played the Steelers tough in Pittsburgh earlier this season, but they aren't about to slow down Pittsburgh's momentum. Pittsburgh is still one of the best teams in the AFC.

PLAY: 1st Half Pittsburgh -1 (-110) 4x


DALLAS AT DETROIT
1st Half Line: Detroit -1, O/U 19.0

Dallas has been down at halftime every game, save one. They were tied once. In Detroit's last six games, they've been up at half four times, and tied twice - vs. the Packers and in Buffalo.

Detroit is a tough place to play. Dallas just lost at home to one of the worst road teams around. To me, the choice is clear.

PLAY: 1st Half Detroit -1 (-110) 4x


CINCINNATI AT HOUSTON
1st Half Line: Houston -1, O/U 19

In my opinion, Cincinnati is the worst team in the NFL right now. Houston is playing pretty well. So why is Coach LeBeau guaranteeing a win? Because Dillon might have a good game?

I really think Cincinnati is the sucker bet here. They are an awful team, a worse road team, and even worse in the first half. I don't care that Houston is giving up one point. I like em anyway.

PLAY: 1st Half Houston -1 (-110) 3x


ST LOUIS AT ARIZONA
1st Half Line: St Louis -1.5, O/U 21.5

I know a lot of smart players are or will be on Arizona. It's kind of hard to blame them, being a winning team, at home, versus a losing team (who is 0-3 on the road to boot) starting it's third-string QB.

I think Faulk is too good for Arizona's solid run defense, and Arizona's weak pass defense will be exploited handily by the Rams' outstanding receiving corps. Plummer is not having a good season, and the rest of Arizona's offense just isn't talented enough to make up for Faulk and company.

I just think the Rams team has been looking a little too much like last year's team, and I think taking them giving so little is a bargain.

PLAY: 1st Half St Louis -1.5 (-110) 3x


I've got a few other leans, but nothing else that's solid. I might be back this weekend with additional plays.

Good luck.

 

[no all]

good luck this week

 

[Balex]

solid half time analyses.
it's fun to win early.

 

[PacMan]

Two more faves...

Two more faves...

I normally am not such a favorites bettor. Certainly not like this week. I think Vegas is giving those barking dogs a little too much credit this week, and have undervalued teams such as Pittsburgh, Oakland and Buffalo due to public perceptions.

I am out of town, so I don't have all of my numbers handy. Still, these are plays for me nonetheless.

SAN FRANCISCO AT OAKLAND
1st Half line: Oakland -1, O/U 24.5

I think this is just what Oakland needs. A game they won't take lightly, at home, against an opponent they can beat. Yes, they can beat San Diego too, but their cards just didn't fall right. Their road losses to Kansas City and Saint Louis just don't surprise me that much.

San Francisco's D has to have the worse third-down conversion rate, allowing teams to get the first down on them about 54% of the time. That will really help Oakland if they struggle early - having that third chance to move the chains be such a good one.

PLAY: 1st Half Oakland -1 (-110) 3x


BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND
1st Half Line: Buffalo -1, O/U 23.5

I had really intended to leave this game alone, but I just knew I'd kick myself if Buffalo covered. I hadn't looked at the numbers and the situation closely, and wasn't sure I wanted to. Well, I had some time today to look more into it, and I did. Before my research, I thought that clearly Buffalo has the offensive advantage, and the Pats have the defensive advantage. Or do they?

Buffalo is giving up 4.4 yards a rush, and 6.67 yards per pass. The Pats are giving up 4.5 yards a rush, and 6.57 yards per pass.

I think the Pats will have too hard of a time containing Buffalo's offensive weapons, and their offense will continue to struggle against Buffalo's underrated defense. I think Bledsoe is mature enough to not crumble due to the anxiety of the situation, and I'm not so sure Brady is. Yes, Brady led them to the Super Bowl and won it, but the Sophmore jinx is on.

PLAY: 1st Half Buffalo -1 (-110) 4x

Good luck.

 

[Mickey's Picks]

Like a lot of your picks PacMan and like you am still a big fan of the first half plays.

I also think the Pittsburgh play is a very stong bet (although I got 1' not 1). The last game against Cleveland was where Tommy made his in-game debut and starting with his first official start the game after in New Orleans, this Pittsburgh team has become an offensive dynamo leaping to big half-time leads against Cincy, Indy and Baltimore and shattering the years past theory of taking the under in Pittsburgh games. Much like Warner did with the Rams in his debut year you have a team that is really firing on all cylinders with a QB no one really believes in.

The Browns meanwhile have been a poor first half team down big last week to the Jets, tied at 7 with the Texans the week before and 10-0 to Tampa Bay before that. Don't forget their miraculous comeback against the Titans in week one where they were way down not only at the half but the whole game. This is a team with some serious problems getting started and that can only fall on coaching.

Pittsburgh came out blasting last week on the road against a very tough Baltimore defense which was on a pretty darn good 3 game roll. No way playing Cleveland on the road can compare to having to play the Ravens D on the road. I think this is one strong bet. Hopefully it plays out that way.

Am also on the Eagles in the first half for the third week running (you may recall I suggested you take them against Tampa Bay two weeks back) and will continue to ride their defense to hold their opponents down so that their offense scores enough to cover.

Good luck on the rest of your plays.