PAT/BUC Sat..

[cooz3]

I cannot dispute that the pat D is playing with much more cohesiveness as well as being able to stop the run since Seymour has returned..but lets put the last two games in perspective..

they played a Bufalo team with a terrible QB IMO in Losman and without thier best reciever...and a Jets team with another terrible QB IMO in Bollinger..of course the run defense is going to look better when you dont have to wory about the pass at all...that being said it could certainly be true that the PAT D is starting to jell ..get healthy and the younger guys are starting to understand the schemes so maybe the Pats will come out and simply dominate the Buc offense...i however am betting against that...

i am by no means a big Chris Simms fan..i have a hrad time justifying throwing money on him no matter what...but if he can avoid the turnovers and the Bucs ask him to complete the medium and short range passes I think the run game opens up and Tampa has a hell of a shot at covering...

The Tampa D is susceptible to the tight end plays but both the Pat tight ends Graham and Watson are banged up...further, im not convinced Dillon is completely back yet just beacuse he looked good against Buffalo...what scares me is the obvious ..that is that Brady is so good at finding the third and fourth option on pass plays that he burns the Tampa defense ...but of course he is going to need time to do that...the Pat offensive line is banged up as well and im betting that the Tampa D rushes Brady a little more than he is comforatble with..in addition, although Brady is no scrambler he does have an uncanny ability to avoid the rush by moving up in the pocket and outside of the pocket...but he is also a little banged up with his knee...and a few seconds off here and there can be costly against a good defense...

with all that being said it is really tough to bet against New england and Brady at home in december..especially when the favorites have been covering almost all year...but i have a feeling the Pats will be in a tough game Tom..and the Bucs will play the time of possession type of offense to a T...

BUCS will be a play..but I think we might get a better line than 4.5..so im waiting a bit

cooz

have not posted much NFL this year..3-1 YTD..first week of season was last post

 

[snoozer]

nice write-up. What is the weather supposed to be like tomorrow? I am not sure how TB plays in the cold, but I know that Miami has never faired well against buff/NE in the winter months

 

[c20916]

was off the board about an hour ago at WSEX, anyone know why? Haven't check to see if it's back up yet.

 

[cooz3]

snoozer...sunny in 40's Tom for game...no weather problems

and

c20916..have no clue why it was off board..but its up at my books..sticking at 4.5

cooz

 

[snoozer]

I would bet it is off until the status of Brady is known

 

[Killrus]

Teasing the Bucs up to 15 sounds tempting

 

[cooz3]

KILLRUS...that does sound tempting ...but then you need two other things to happen...

if i was to tease it I would with the KC over ..2 teams 6 points brings BUCS to 10.5 ..key number..and giants and chiefs should hit 41..???but who knows...

cooz

 

[FirstnGoal]

Cooz...I was leaning toward the Bucs + earlier in the week myself but couldn't pull the trigger because I have a feeling that the Pats are going to come up with a defensive gameplan to make sure that Simms doesn't have time to throw the ball...he's at his best (and doesn't turn the ball over) when he has time to throw in the pocket...but...he has looked horrible this year when he's pressured thus the sacks and INT's seem to happen...also...I don't think there is any doubt that the Pats will roll some coverage toward Joey Galloway to limit his effectiveness...on the flip side...IF Corey Dillon is healthy...I can see the Pats pounding the ball on the ground against a Bucs defense that couldl be without DT Booger McFarland...McFarland's loss could be huge for the Bucs...if McFarland doesn't play and Dillon is healthy enough to go this could be enough in my mind to lean toward the Pats or more than likely make it a "No Play" for me.

Good Luck!

 

[cooz3]

firstngoal..solid points...

like i siad i dont make it a habit of betting against Pats at home in December with something on the line...but im just not convinced that this team has "turned the corner" so to speak...i think it may be more of who the patriots played rather than a dramatic improvement against the run and thier secondary can all the sudden cover...i have watched the Pats all year and plain and simple the secondary was god awful up until say..2 weeks ago..when coincidentally they played Jets and then Buffalo..as i stated earlier im no big Simms fan...but i think the Bucs will have a solid gameplan to keep the pressure off him...the patriots have all of the sudden started to Blitz the last few weeks..and i strongly believ that is due to the fact that they simply have not respected the oppsosing QB's in each game....if Simms can get off to a decent start or if cadillac starts off strong I think we may see this Pats defense all of the sudden become a little suspect again..

as for Booger Mcfarland ..i dont think he played last week either ..and although it would be a big loss ..i think this defense has enough to get through this one without letting Dillon control the clock...

im its most simplistic form ...I just am not convinced the Pats all of the sudden turned it on on defense and are now a solid D...and i think Tampa presents some problems for them...but as you stated if Simms gets rattled the bet is done quick...lol

best of luck

cooz

 

[edludes]

strong play,good analysis,Tbay covered last 6 vs NE,need it more.Like the under 36 more myself,but Tbay too.Gl to you.

 

[Skipper]

Is Brady playing?? I cannot imagine him not playing this game.

 

[DanteTheDon]

doesnt anybody here realize that bellichik is notorious for leaving the league/media/fans in the dark concerning player's status??? he has been disciplined before by taglibue for crying out loud. brady will play. and he will have a field day in the beautiful new england weather. foxboro will be a mad house also-the fans have been waiting for this team to start showing signs of the well oiled machine they were last season. new england wins this one, and convincingly. i like the over too.

 

[cooz3]

BRADY is def playing..as was reported in Boston globe today..

i never even mentioned Brady being out becuase it simply is not going to happen..

cooz