Hello my friends...
Count me as one backing Denver over New England this week, last week I was all over the Patriots -7.5 over the Jags and lined my pockets pretty well by doing so, however, Denver is a totally different animal (literally speaking...Bronco's/Jaguars) and is a well rested one at that.
Most "Joe Public" bettors are discounting Denver's earlier 28-20 win over the Patriots this year on this very field due to several New England players missing from the line-up, but you must consider that the odds maker knows this as well and installed Denver as an opening 3 point favs just as he did in the earlier meeting, there is a reason for this, its partially due to the history of this round which states that since 1990 rested home teams have won 49 of 60 contests, looking at the short term rested home teams in this round have won 23 of the past 28.
Match up wise I do not think New England will be able to counter what Denver brings to the table which is a dominant run game and a sturdy defense, a check backwards of New England's schedule this year and the results thereof show that the Patriots posted a mark of 5-3 straight up and ATS when taking to the road, those three road losses came at Carolina, At Denver, and at Kansas City, for good measure I could lump in New Englands last second FG win over Pittsburgh as well to illustrate that all these teams play a physical brand of football that is spearheaded with a nice ground assault.
Even a check of New Englands home losses reveal defeats at the hands of San Diego (41-17) and Indy (40-21), to me this shows that New England has problems with teams that can pound the ball, the public is in love with New England at the moment which is the reason this line is as low as it is, in my humble opinion it should be more like Denver -5, the Bronco's have the mental edge heading into this affair because they have already met and defeated the Patriots once this season, I really Believe New England gets exposed by Denver in this game.
I backed New England last week because I knew the Jags were making a mistake by starting "rusty ole lead-foot" Leftwich, this week New England's defense will have a much tougher time tracking down a more mobile QB in Jake Plummer, look for Plummer to loosen up the Pats with screens and short hitches, once the Bronco's get the running game going it will open up the play action which will then allow Plummer to take his shots down field, the Patriots will score their fair share of points as well in what will probably be the highest scoring game of the weekend, in the end Denver will win by 7 to 10 points.
Those liking trends might like to know that Denver is 13-4 ATS following a bye week which includes a perfect mark of 3-0 ATS in their last three games after a week of rest, Denver posted a mark of 3-1 ATS versus AFC East teams this year while New England posted a record of 1-3 ATS against AFC West competition.
take care and be well
Jim
