Patriots ML tonight

[johnnyonthespot]

Patriots ML -410 (4 units to win .95)

Not a fan of huge chalk but can't pass this up.

Let's look at this a couple different ways. First, this line is basically saying that the Dolphins win this game 24% of the time. That certainly doesn't seem true, but what do the facts say? In the Tom Brady era (i.e. since 2001) the Dolphins have gone 2-12 at Foxboro - good for just over 14%. Just based on that, you are getting solid value.

But dig a little deeper and it's even worse for the Dolphins. Their last win at Foxboro came back in 2008. That was a couple weeks after Brady went down for the year with a knee injury. So the Dolphins beat Matt Cassel. The only other win was the last game of the 05-06 season. The Pats already had their playoff spot locked up, and Brady only played the 1st quarter. So the Dolphins basically beat Matt Cassel again.

Based on history, the only way the Dolphins win this game is if they knock Brady out of it, and while there's always a chance of that I don't think it's a 24% chance.

On the other hand, when the game is down in Miami it's a completely different story. Pats have lost their last 2 games there and 3 of the last 5. Something to file away for later this year if the Dolphins continue to show improvement.

 

[Pound4Pound#1]

Only way to play the pats tonight! GL :toast:

 

[Skanoochies]

Brady could get knocked out of the game with an
idiot like Nadingadong Suh playing.:scared

 

[Jord20]

Johnny, I'm not one to post in other people's threads - but I like you and your opinions, so I'm genuinely curious here..

So, Pats have to win the game 85% of the time for this bet to be a winner. You like that risk/reward?

I def don't think with a big enough banlkroll, laying big odds is a bad thing per se, just seems like a stretch in a game against a decent NFL team. Plus, the Fins seem to have at least some success against the Pats in recent years.

Fins may stink - but they may actually be decent. I was relatively high on them before the year started. Philbin was a complete bonehead though. They feel rejuvenated. I think the Jets did a lot well vs NE that can be built on.

You probably have a winner - but 85%?

GL as always buddy

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Jord - read your threads almost every day and am happy to get the input. Stop in any time.

Honestly, I will admit that my numbers were off in my initial calc. I was simplistically thinking divide $100 into $410 - which gave me 24%, but that is obviously wrong. You are right that I have to hit this ~85% of the time (82% is the break even point).

Is this an 85% prop? Based on history it is (2 wins in 14 trips) but of course we're not capping the past we're capping the future. I agree that the Dolphins are much improved (addition by subtraction with Philbin's removal) but I just don't see them being near the Patriots level right now. Frankly, I think if this game had been played 3 weeks ago after the game in London the ML would have been close to -600. Definitely not a play at that point.

Bottom line is that I just feel that at this point in the season there are a number of games where the outcome is pretty close to certain (from a SU, not ATS perspective). I find that I routinely rack my brain trying to parse out who the ATS winner will be even though I "know" who the SU winner will be. I think there is some value over the next 3-4 weeks in playing these medium-high MLs (-300 to -400). Admittedly, this is a new strategy for me so it may well end in disaster.

I know for sure that I would never try this in college skins. Seems like a top-10 team gets beaten by an inferior team on a weekly basis.

GL to you too bud!

 

[hammer1]

Patriots ML -410 (4 units to win .95)

Not a fan of huge chalk but can't pass this up.

Let's look at this a couple different ways. First, this line is basically saying that the Dolphins win this game 24% of the time. That certainly doesn't seem true, but what do the facts say? In the Tom Brady era (i.e. since 2001) the Dolphins have gone 2-12 at Foxboro - good for just over 14%. Just based on that, you are getting solid value.

But dig a little deeper and it's even worse for the Dolphins. Their last win at Foxboro came back in 2008. That was a couple weeks after Brady went down for the year with a knee injury. So the Dolphins beat Matt Cassel. The only other win was the last game of the 05-06 season. The Pats already had their playoff spot locked up, and Brady only played the 1st quarter. So the Dolphins basically beat Matt Cassel again.

Based on history, the only way the Dolphins win this game is if they knock Brady out of it, and while there's always a chance of that I don't think it's a 24% chance.

On the other hand, when the game is down in Miami it's a completely different story. Pats have lost their last 2 games there and 3 of the last 5. Something to file away for later this year if the Dolphins continue to show improvement.

Personally i wd take an open Ml parlay with 1 or 2 open spots and fill it saturady 4 to 1 is just a little steep although i have done em.

 

[Jord20]

Personally i wd take an open Ml parlay with 1 or 2 open spots and fill it saturady 4 to 1 is just a little steep although i have done em.

I agree with this. I think the ML parlays that pay around even with 2 teams are a solid way to take the faves and not worry about the score

GL, Johnny. Cheers