This season, the Patriots are an impressive 4-2 ATS when pegged as a 'dog of seven or more points. That tells me either the team gets angry at the lack of respect they are being given and play harder, or they relish the idea of playing as such a long shot and therefore play looser.
And speaking of getting up for big games, New England is an impressive 7-1 ATS versus winning teams this season. Sounds like a collective effort that starts in the locker-room and rolls out onto the field.
Here's another fact you won't find in any box scores, but is a definite trend worth looking at: This season's Super Bowl is being played a week after the divisional championship games, as opposed to providing the traditional bye week for the underdogs to contemplate that role.
I call it the 'Self-fulfilling Prophesy Quicksand Syndrome'. Hear something often enough, and you start to believe it.
Of the 35 Super Bowls, five have been played on just one week's rest.
Of those five, the favorites have a poor 1-3-1 (25 percent) pointspread record.
The only pointspread win by a favorite -- Dallas over Buffalo in 1994, 30-13 as a 10-point 'chalk' -- was a close game for much of the way, and the Bills actually led the game straight up at the half.
The underdog has definitely been the play in Super Bowls played without a bye when the less-accomplished team has less time to think about how they may be outclassed.
And finally, despite what I said earlier, let's take a look at the game stats for a moment.
To add further credence to my belief New England will win SU, take a look at the Patriots straight-up record on turf this season (3-0).
Yes, the Rams are far and away the most dominant team in almost every offensive category. But something strange happened to both teams in Week 7.
On Sunday, Oct. 28, the Patriots lost to in Denver, 20-31. It was the most points the team surrendered all season.
And the Rams lost that weekend too, also giving up the most points of any game this season (34 to New Orleans).
It appears New England used their defensive breakdown as a wake-up call, because from that point on they've given up a stingy 13.8 points per game -- including playoffs.
St. Louis, on the other hand, never really recovered from its defensive letdown. Sure, they won games, but other teams saw what New Orleans did that Sunday to penetrate the Rams 'D', and copied it with success.
From that game until last week, the Rams were allowing a less than champion-like 18.1 points per game. Prior to that pivotal Saints game, the Rams were giving up just 13.5 points per game.
And you might be surprised to learn the Patriots passing offense has actually been better than St. Louis' over the last three games (228.3 compared to 225.7).
And New England outranks the Rams in every defensive category over the last three games as well. The Pats have given up 12 points per game over the last three compared to 18 for St. Louis. New England is allowing 286 yards against compared to the Rams' 298 over the same period.
Nowhere is the gap more prevalent over the last three than on pass defense. The Patriots are allowing 176.7 yards per game compared to St. Louis' 186.3.
Both teams have been about even in stopping the run over the last three (New England gives up 109.3 yards versus 111.7 for St. Louis).
And just an FYI for those of you out there who are still non-believers: Of the last four Super Bowls in which a team was favored by 10 or more points, just one covered the spread. Way back in 1995, the 49ers beat San Diego as a 19-point favorite, 49-26.
The other three occasions -- Dallas in 1996 (-13) and Green Bay in 1997 (-14) and 1998 (-11) -- resulted in an 0-2-1 ATS record for the 'chalk'.
And speaking of getting up for big games, New England is an impressive 7-1 ATS versus winning teams this season. Sounds like a collective effort that starts in the locker-room and rolls out onto the field.
Here's another fact you won't find in any box scores, but is a definite trend worth looking at: This season's Super Bowl is being played a week after the divisional championship games, as opposed to providing the traditional bye week for the underdogs to contemplate that role.
I call it the 'Self-fulfilling Prophesy Quicksand Syndrome'. Hear something often enough, and you start to believe it.
Of the 35 Super Bowls, five have been played on just one week's rest.
Of those five, the favorites have a poor 1-3-1 (25 percent) pointspread record.
The only pointspread win by a favorite -- Dallas over Buffalo in 1994, 30-13 as a 10-point 'chalk' -- was a close game for much of the way, and the Bills actually led the game straight up at the half.
The underdog has definitely been the play in Super Bowls played without a bye when the less-accomplished team has less time to think about how they may be outclassed.
And finally, despite what I said earlier, let's take a look at the game stats for a moment.
To add further credence to my belief New England will win SU, take a look at the Patriots straight-up record on turf this season (3-0).
Yes, the Rams are far and away the most dominant team in almost every offensive category. But something strange happened to both teams in Week 7.
On Sunday, Oct. 28, the Patriots lost to in Denver, 20-31. It was the most points the team surrendered all season.
And the Rams lost that weekend too, also giving up the most points of any game this season (34 to New Orleans).
It appears New England used their defensive breakdown as a wake-up call, because from that point on they've given up a stingy 13.8 points per game -- including playoffs.
St. Louis, on the other hand, never really recovered from its defensive letdown. Sure, they won games, but other teams saw what New Orleans did that Sunday to penetrate the Rams 'D', and copied it with success.
From that game until last week, the Rams were allowing a less than champion-like 18.1 points per game. Prior to that pivotal Saints game, the Rams were giving up just 13.5 points per game.
And you might be surprised to learn the Patriots passing offense has actually been better than St. Louis' over the last three games (228.3 compared to 225.7).
And New England outranks the Rams in every defensive category over the last three games as well. The Pats have given up 12 points per game over the last three compared to 18 for St. Louis. New England is allowing 286 yards against compared to the Rams' 298 over the same period.
Nowhere is the gap more prevalent over the last three than on pass defense. The Patriots are allowing 176.7 yards per game compared to St. Louis' 186.3.
Both teams have been about even in stopping the run over the last three (New England gives up 109.3 yards versus 111.7 for St. Louis).
And just an FYI for those of you out there who are still non-believers: Of the last four Super Bowls in which a team was favored by 10 or more points, just one covered the spread. Way back in 1995, the 49ers beat San Diego as a 19-point favorite, 49-26.
The other three occasions -- Dallas in 1996 (-13) and Green Bay in 1997 (-14) and 1998 (-11) -- resulted in an 0-2-1 ATS record for the 'chalk'.
