Pay Service Question.....

[Blue Jay]

i bet this is a really stupid question and alot of you guys are going to say i'm stupid even for asking, BUT.....is there any pay services out there that do win for you in the long run?? i don't expect a service to be hitting football at like 75% or anything, but just at mabey 55% - 60 %.....

all i ask is that i don't give them my cash and even up with a 3-7 record each week.....lossing money to them and then money on their picks would just be stupid.....

thanks,
Blue Jay

 

[Red Raider]

Blue Jay,

Your right many don't want to pay for picks. But a lot of people do. Not everyone has the time to handicap themselves, and even if they do, Most lose in the long run.

The trick to finding a pay service is credibility!

Fletchers has a service. I think he has won 14 out of 17 weeks so far in baseball. His site, gamblersdata, is listied in the "Links" above.

Good Luck!

 

[SixFive]

Here's what I think. Nothing against fletcher, as I like and respect him, and I think he wins, and I think he is honest, BUT I think it's much easier to find a capper who sucks and fade them. There are many, many cappers on the net who post their plays, and many of them lose. So, instead of thinking about paying for somebody who is going to hit 55%, fade somebody hitting 40-42%.

GL!

 

[buddy]

Blue Jay,

I would also recommend Fletcher.

 

[djv]

Blue jay when looking around. Do not get fooled by price. Most expensive ones don't do any better then a average priced one. You also have to deside what type of service. Old sent in the mail junk. Email everyday. Phone call two/three times a week. For one thing here there are some good ones that are free. And Six Five is not that far off with his thoughts either. I don't care for pay service. Learned all my lessons with them many times over. If I was going to do it. I to would consider Fletcher. Price is average maybe a litte high for some. But he will work hard at it win or loose. The working hard at it counts for a lot to me. Then we have Nolan here that had a bit of a down year last year. I believe we will see a bounce back with Nolan this year. His cost is zero. If you want in heavy suggest you watch Nolan for free and purchase Fletcher service for your pay service. What ever you do please do not jump back and fourth with to many you will most likely loose.
GL with what ever you do.

 

[ferdville]

If you don't have the time to handicap properly or if you don't have the skills, there is nothing wrong with using a pay service. After all, a pay service is nothing more than a consultant. People pay consultants in the business world every day. If you approach gambling as a business, then why not find the best consultant you can and pay him accordingly. Fletcher has sent me to the window 16 of 19 weeks in baseball. I believe that he is probably as good or better in football. But there is an important notice to those who use a pay service. If you want to maximize profit, you need to play as you are directed. That means you don't throw out the games you don't like and you don't add games you do like. If you play that game, you will have some problems. I know it gets frustrating when your "consultant" plays the same team again and again and it loses. You want to throw it out; refuse to play it. But, you can't do it. At least that is my opinion when it comes to dealing with Fletcher. You do it his way or not at all. And if you do it his way, you win more than you lose. If that's what you want that's what you get. I had one other positive experience with a pay service. I used Ken Anglin of K&B Sports for Pro Football and showed a healthy profit for about 3 consecutive years. However, I started fading his college picks after the first year because they were just the opposite. I paid him only when we hit a certain profit plateau, which isn't a bad plan. But, after a protracted cold streak in hoops, where I basically sat out, the negative factor was so high I stopped getting his calls. Pay services aren't for everybody because you are giving up your chance to select - but if you are in it for profit and action, I have found it a decent way to go because I don't have the 60 hours a week it takes to do the job right.

 

[jcjrbowl]

Well guys I dont know if many of you know me but my thoughts are this. We here at mad jacks are just as good or bad as most pay services. This site has some very informative info on almost all sports and all games. As of right now I have studied many of the teams in the upcoming season and I have been on here for a few years. Dont sell any of us in this forum short not just speaking on behalf of myself but I value the opinions and picks of several people in here. Now my thought on tonights game.
PASS I cannot play money here spread is only 3 and houston has yet to suit up How can that be is my gut feeling, either play them or pass I cannot play them, the line just does not make any sense to me , just my opinion of course, and the stat that really jumps out to me is this Giants are 2-10 as a dog or favorite <3 points since 1990 in preseason play.

 

[ctownguy]

ferdville

I could not have said it any better. Your response is one of the best and concise on this subject I have read in many a year on the net in these forums.

There are so many choices out there and so many more legit services to choose from that it is a much better situation than it used to be.

Add all the sites like here, bettors really have some great places to go to get info, whether it be pay or not.

To each his own, but at least this thread did not turn into all the ridiculous bashing of corrupt and fraudulent pay services, we know they are out there, just make intelligient choices and use info from great sites like this one.:clap: :thumb: :toast:

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

For whats its worth I have recoeds dateing back past 10 years on services. Have never seen any beat nfl consistantly. Here best I have found and all can be picked up for free on some consensus or modestly for bout $200 a year in more timely fashion on pay consensus.

Top dog by far.
Underdog 65.2 for 17 year tracking period in college.
only one game per week.
college GOY 14-3
Wager of 1/2 unit game 1/2 unit money line has paid great dividends if one would play just one game a week.

Sports Advisor 4 year record combo ncaa-NFL 244-159
Vegus High Rollers 213-144 combo
Executive Sports Lne 261-192 combo
Texas Sportswire 61% last 5 years NCAA only

 

[ferdville]

Have never used it, but everytime I have done any research into this the Texas Sports Wire is one of tops. A note to anyone not familiar with it, be careful about services that claim to "MONITOR" the cappers. Most of them are fraudulent. Maybe those in the know can tell us which of the monitoring services are legit. Of course, this supposes that a service you are considering will let itself be monitored.

 

[dogface]

Info...

Info...

I can only chime in about the monitor I joined. I have been monitored by the xxxxxxxx, and I understand they have no affiliations with any of the services. (I guess the best example would be to say it is similar to what MadJack has with BestBettor, they operate it...but there is no affiliation with the services or individuals picking the games. It allows both services and individuals to be monitored so we all get the same lines.)

I also release and post my records and the units I use on my site, so there are no discrepancies. I hope this helps, I guess you may consider it biased because I run a service, but hope you will look to my honesty as a regular poster before I opened up my website!

***One caveat, the monitors only allow you to select a game as one unit, so there are no variances. (I personally play all games on a 1-5* basis with a very rare 10* thrown in. No GOY or anything like that, that typically is BS, no inside info either...don't know what the heck that is anyways! ) lol I explain this because although my MLB record is: (247-217) 53.23%, the monitor show me at a -1440. Which at a 1 unit play would be correct. I am actually up over 50*, in NFL it shows a record of (10-7) 59% rounded up +230, when I am actually (10-7-1) +6.4*

*** I have also join into thexxxxxxxxxx, and will have the xxxxxxx, follow those picks. strictly for the NCAA, and NFL Contest!

I hope this was informative and MadJack can validate my honesty and my post as just being informational.

TSI/dogface

 

[djv]

Many times you will see some service say there just kicking both NCAA and NFL to death. Threw many trial and errors I found that not true. Seems they would be hot ot cold on one or the other. It makes sence because it does take differant ideas to capp both. When I see a service say 56% up 15 units NCAA, and 58% up 22 units NFL for a complete year. I would pay attetion. They most likely are honest. The were over 63% for everything they cap from bingo to horse shoes BS>. Well look some place else. Your about to learn a tough lesson.
Also some just capp one sport and are very good at it for that reason. They dont think anything else all year but that sport.
But again I say follow no more then two cappers. For sure don't jump back and fourth between 4/5 differant ones.
GL TO ALL.

 

[Rick]

Blue Jay,
Here are a few additional thoughts to go along with the great comments posted above. As important as it is in choosing the right service, I think it is also equally, yes equally important in having multiple outs. Line variation whether it be with a few locals or with a few different offshores or better yet both, is unbelievably important. Just look at last night. Carolina getting 7 lands on the number. Giants -3 lands on the number. Tennessee -2 lands on the number 2. You have good numbers or multiple outs you win all three. I had Tennessee at 1- locally, Carolina +7- locally and bought the Giants to 2- offshore. Doesn't matter what any service said about those 3 games if you had good numbers, or play smart and buy the 1/2 you win. Always buy off the number 3 in the NFL. You will be surprised at how many times the oddsmakers are right on. Never buy in College.
In addition to multiple books and buying at the right time is the importance of money management. If you have the money to play with, thats fine. But if you find yourself crying over losses or getting over emotional, either cut back on your wagers or get out. I was on a sports radio show one time here in Chicago with a gentlemen named Tommy Jackson, (I believe) and he asked me about a Monday Night Football game in which Jacksonville was going to kick a Field Goal (they already had covered) and it got not only blocked but returned for a TD. Hence my 3 unit play lost. He asked me how I handle that type of beat. Did I jump up and down, scream, swear or throw something? "No." I replied, "I just shook my head and went to bed." Bet wagers you are more than comfortable with and if you have a bad beat you take it easier.
SixFive had some very good comments about finding someone to fade. Makes complete sense but it also takes a lot of homework to find out who is good and who is bad. I found it very interesting that ferdville mentioned one of the few services I would recommend in Ken Angland. Ken caught my eye in last years UHC contest where he finished second. I finished 13th. He got beat out by the Crazy Cajun (Brian Carpenter) on the last day of the season. Both of these 2 guys are pretty tough cappers. But Ken especially since he finished 1st in the UHC in Pro Football, 2nd like I said in Baseball and in the top 10 in College Football also. He also finished 1st the year before in the NBA which is some pretty remarkable stats out of over 100 services. This past NBA season he did not fair so well. ferdville also stated that Ken "showed a healthy profit for about 3 consecutive years." Thats a decent enough review. Ken is also a great guy.
jcjrbowl had some great observations in "We here at mad jacks are just as good or bad as most pay services." I absolutely agree 100%. I am not a service and in the last year I finished 13th in the UHC Baseball, 10th in Pro Football and am currently in the top 5 at the NSM in overall and this years Baseball. I say this not to brag but to just show proof that you can get free info that is just as good as what you would be paying probably $2000 -$3000 for. Save that money, thats a decent starting bankroll.
I also agree with djv that Nolan will have a little different year than last. I looked forward to competing against him in last years UHC and he did terrible. That happens. I remember the year before he was fantastic and look for him to go back to his winning ways this year. Don't forget about MadJack. I still say that if I was to give anyone my money to play with it would be Jack. I have watched him for a few years now and I think he is a brilliant player. Doesn't play favs in Bases and is very smart in both College and Pro Football. Just ignore his Ravens bets.
DOGS THAT BARK is offering just what this is all about. Offering help and honest stats to back them up. ferdville also asked that "maybe those in the know can tell us which of the monitoring services are legit." I am monitored by several and all I can comment on is what I have participated in and that is the UHC, NSM and here at Bestbettor. I am ranked in the top 10 in all 3 and I think all 3 are honest and run well. You know one form of monitoring that can very well be kept track of and that is the sports forum itself. Un-edited posts do not lie. Just takes a bit of homework.
DogFace looking forward to you competing in the UHC (which allows you to use your 1-5 units) and the NSM which allows you only 1 unit per play but unlimited plays. Both are great contests but each is different in its own right.
All in all Blue Jay I recommend you use your service fee for a nice starting bankroll of about $2500. Allows you to start out at $25 per unit and on 1-3 units thats 1-3% of your bankroll. No pressure to win right away as you would have just lost that $2500 right off the bat. Watch Nolan, especially watch Jack and watch the other good players that this forum has to offer. Then decide who to follow, who to fade, and establish that feel for yourself of what to do when. Good Luck. By the way most services actually put up their picks on the free picks pages at the above mentioned monitoring sites.

 

[Dominator]

That was just an excellent post Daman Sports.. And very good advice also.. Thanks..

 

[ferdville]

You are right on with several points. You obviously know of what you speak. The importance of having a choice with lines cannot be overemphasized. Over the course of a year, you are potentially talking big money for a half point here or a half point there. Generally, you can get a feel for the books you use - if you use your local guy as opposed to an offshore, they are pretty easy to read after a while. You offered some great advice to all.

 

[dogface]

One thing about outs...

One thing about outs...

I would recommend:

1) Using a sportsbook form one of MadJack's advertisers/sponsors.

2) Have a minimum of 3 ready to go. If you have a local consider that as 1. I would recommend 5-7, just for the best shopping. Those 1-1/2 points can make or break a few bets during the season.

Have a great football season on whatever you decide!

TSI/ dogface

 

[acehistr8]

Personally I like to use a website where you can see the lines from a dozen or so books all at once. The ones that consistently have the best lines I have opened accounts at, a few of them are sponsors here. That way it is really easy to log in, see the lines, and go to the site that offers that extra point or two.

These differences can be small but sometimes they can be significant. Right now for example there are still a couple of places you can get 3.5 points in the Bucs game tonight, while most are at -6.

Overall, I am not in favor of paying for picks. Paying for information is one thing. I dont mind paying a service or two for a years worth of stats and information that I can make my own picks from. But in the long run I personally do not think paying for picks will be significantly better from capping the games yourself.

 

[djv]

I think this was mentioned, if not. Everyone remember Money Management. A good rule is never more then 10% of your bank in play on any weekend.