If everything goes right for the Penn State men's basketball team -- players avoid injuries, a couple of freshmen develop into contributors and the Big Ten has a down year -- the Lions have a chance to finish .500.
More realistic goals for the Lions are improving on their seven wins of last season and avoiding a repeat of their last-place finish in the conference.
If the Lions can do those things, then Coach Jerry Dunn will have them back on track for future success. However, the Lions' tough non-conference schedule and the team's lack of talent, size and depth may make reaching eight wins a tall order.
The Lions begin the season Monday at North Carolina in the preseason NIT and have road games at Penn and Clemson and play host to Temple, Pitt and Yale before the end of December. Then they open their Big Ten schedule with three of four on the road.
It is not the kind of schedule conducive to success for a young team trying to rebuild, but Dunn said he'd rather have his players battle-tested going into the Big Ten schedule than clinging to a false sense of security attained by beating up a bunch of nobodies.
"It is important to have confidence, but then again, it is more important to prepare yourself for the conference," said Dunn. "We certainly could play a softer schedule, but I'm not sure if you would have any idea where you are and if you have any time to make adjustments as needed. It can be like fool's gold when you go in without testing yourself."
Dunn said his team is physically stronger, a little more experienced and probably more focused than last year, but it remains to be seen if that will translate into success on the court. The Lions return four starters from last year's team, but the roster is loaded with far more questions than answers.
Leading the Lions will be the backcourt of 6-foot senior Brandon Watkins and 6-foot-1 junior Shariff Chambliss. Watkins was the team's second-leading scorer (13.1 ppg) and led the team with 116 assists while Chambliss was an honorable mention All-Big Ten pick after averaging 14.6 points and 3.54 3-pointers per game.
"Backcourts are what make your team go," Dunn said. "Everything starts on the perimeter. Those two guys went through the wars last year, took their lumps and are better for it."
Dunn also is looking for big things from 6-foot-5 junior swingman Jamaal Tate, who battled nagging injuries last season but managed to start 21 games. Dunn said Tate is healthy and ready to have his best season as a Lion.
The wild card is talented Jan Jagla, a 6-foot-11 sophomore from Berlin, Germany, who started 19 games last year but lacked the experience and girth to have much of an impact. Jagla is a project, but like many European players has the fundamental skills to become an impact player.
Jagla has an excellent perimeter game, but he gained 25 pounds in the off-season and is going to be asked to play a major role under the basket for the Lions.
"Jan creates a difficult matchup with his size and perimeter game and ability to [dribble]," Dunn said. "But we'd like to play him at center as much as possible. Last year, we got outrebounded badly but sometimes you have to look at where your shots are coming from. You have to have a strong perimeter game, but more of our shots have to come from within the lane."
Beyond those four players, the rest of the rotation is up in the air. That's especially true now that 6-foot-7 sophomore Daren Tielsch, a Montour graduate, has withdrawn from school. Tielsch was tabbed the team's starting power forward.
If healthy, 6-foot-6 junior forward Ndu Egekeze could emerge as a solid player, but his health is a major question, and three freshmen, guard Brandon Cameron (6-0), swingman DeForrest Riley (6-6) and center Robert Summers (6-11) could see some playing time early and often.
More realistic goals for the Lions are improving on their seven wins of last season and avoiding a repeat of their last-place finish in the conference.
If the Lions can do those things, then Coach Jerry Dunn will have them back on track for future success. However, the Lions' tough non-conference schedule and the team's lack of talent, size and depth may make reaching eight wins a tall order.
The Lions begin the season Monday at North Carolina in the preseason NIT and have road games at Penn and Clemson and play host to Temple, Pitt and Yale before the end of December. Then they open their Big Ten schedule with three of four on the road.
It is not the kind of schedule conducive to success for a young team trying to rebuild, but Dunn said he'd rather have his players battle-tested going into the Big Ten schedule than clinging to a false sense of security attained by beating up a bunch of nobodies.
"It is important to have confidence, but then again, it is more important to prepare yourself for the conference," said Dunn. "We certainly could play a softer schedule, but I'm not sure if you would have any idea where you are and if you have any time to make adjustments as needed. It can be like fool's gold when you go in without testing yourself."
Dunn said his team is physically stronger, a little more experienced and probably more focused than last year, but it remains to be seen if that will translate into success on the court. The Lions return four starters from last year's team, but the roster is loaded with far more questions than answers.
Leading the Lions will be the backcourt of 6-foot senior Brandon Watkins and 6-foot-1 junior Shariff Chambliss. Watkins was the team's second-leading scorer (13.1 ppg) and led the team with 116 assists while Chambliss was an honorable mention All-Big Ten pick after averaging 14.6 points and 3.54 3-pointers per game.
"Backcourts are what make your team go," Dunn said. "Everything starts on the perimeter. Those two guys went through the wars last year, took their lumps and are better for it."
Dunn also is looking for big things from 6-foot-5 junior swingman Jamaal Tate, who battled nagging injuries last season but managed to start 21 games. Dunn said Tate is healthy and ready to have his best season as a Lion.
The wild card is talented Jan Jagla, a 6-foot-11 sophomore from Berlin, Germany, who started 19 games last year but lacked the experience and girth to have much of an impact. Jagla is a project, but like many European players has the fundamental skills to become an impact player.
Jagla has an excellent perimeter game, but he gained 25 pounds in the off-season and is going to be asked to play a major role under the basket for the Lions.
"Jan creates a difficult matchup with his size and perimeter game and ability to [dribble]," Dunn said. "But we'd like to play him at center as much as possible. Last year, we got outrebounded badly but sometimes you have to look at where your shots are coming from. You have to have a strong perimeter game, but more of our shots have to come from within the lane."
Beyond those four players, the rest of the rotation is up in the air. That's especially true now that 6-foot-7 sophomore Daren Tielsch, a Montour graduate, has withdrawn from school. Tielsch was tabbed the team's starting power forward.
If healthy, 6-foot-6 junior forward Ndu Egekeze could emerge as a solid player, but his health is a major question, and three freshmen, guard Brandon Cameron (6-0), swingman DeForrest Riley (6-6) and center Robert Summers (6-11) could see some playing time early and often.
