Pennsylvania Classic

[Stanley]

Withdrawals ... expect quite a lot this week

Russ Cochran
Rick Fehr
Carlos Franco
J.J. Henry
Geoff Ogilvy
Jose Maria Olazabal
Steve Pate
Jean van de Velde

Will update list as I see them.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Stan
one early play at Cascades
Cook -102 over Maruyama.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Note on wager @ Cascade.I signed up there because of ad on 15 cent lines which they said they were "experimenting" with.They experimented for one week in which events were canceled then back to 20 cent.A little

I bit on that dupe.

[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 09-18-2001).]

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding
Hoch +115 over Singh @ Camelot

 

[buckeye]

DOGS,
I felt reamed a bit by cascade's line switch too, as I noted in the ** thread. At least they also allow parlays this week, they didn't last week which I also found annoying. The consession is to change to 15 cents on noon Wed. By then the lines have been righted so much it won't be of that much value - kind of like Pinnacle's 16 cent that I can never find much value in. Monday and 15 cents was the KEY. Live and learn I guess.

GL2All

 

[Stanley]

Preview & outright plays:

This may be first time that the PGA Tour has stopped in Western Pennsylvania, but this event will be a somber affair. It is the first event after that most fateful of weeks. It is rather surprising that as many as six of the Ryder Cup team have changed their schedules to play in this event. Maybe it is part of the healing process, but the fact that they are here rather than with their families suggests a real determination on their part to be competitive this week. These players seem to be ones to side with this week, while those with New York connections, such as Dudley Hart, are surely ones to avoid.

They play at Laurel Valley which hosted the 36-hole Family House Invitational in 1992 and 1996. The two winners were Bob Tway and Scott Hoch, so this suggests that straight hitting off the tee is required around this course. With the fairways being tree-lined, water a feature on many holes and the greens being heavily-bunkered and severely undulating, accuracy does seem to be of primary importance this week. The course has featured repeatedly in the "Top-100 Courses in the US" listings and will provide a good test for this week's field.

The three selections are Jim Furyk, Scott Verplank and Steve Lowery. With no real course form to use, good current form seems to be especially important this week and these three have just that. Furyk has finished 2nd, 6th and 2nd in his last three events which include a major and WGC event. As a Pennsylvania native, his decision to play this event is understandable and the motivation for a good week should be evident. A short price for an event in which to be cautious, but he should be more focused than most.

Verplank celebrated his wildcard selection for the Ryder Cup with victory in the Canadian Open two weeks ago and with this last-minute decision to play here, is another who can dominate this event if he remains focused. Very straight off the tee and also standing high in the greens in regulation stats, Verplank should at least repeat his top-10 finish in this event last year.

The final selection is Steve Lowery who was not involved in the Ryder Cup deliberations, but comes into the event in great form. His stats may not look great, but his last two finishes have been 3rd at the PGA Championship and 2nd at the Air Canada Championship after a disastrous opening round. As with the other players, there is a question mark over how focused he can be at this time, but when he is playing as well as he has done for years, then he should find it much easier to concentrate on the course.

Outright plays:

Jim Furyk to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Scott Verplank to win 22/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]
Steve Lowery to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler or BetInternet

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Outrights to place only @ Oly 1/2 unit
Flesch 12.5/1
Tway 12.5/1
Cook 11/1

Pick up 2 shares of Furyk @ $7 each in interactives @ WSEX when they opened and believe that price is still holding.

 

[ormond80]

Maruyama -105 over J. Cook 72 Holes @ Millinnium.

Happy Gaming!

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays:

Steve Flesch to beat John Daly +100 @ Sportfanatik
Daly may have won in Europe and finished 4th last time out, but this does not appear to be an open course and one in which his length will be rewarded. Flesch, for his part, has been in much better form in the last two months and with decent odds should give Daly a good match

Steve Lowery to beat John Daly -110 @ Surrey
Again opposing Daly and this time with a player in even better form. Wouldn't want to oppose Daly too many times this week, but will certainly do so with an outright selection

Glen Day to beat Robert Damron -110 @ Sportfanatik
Could be settled early. Damron has a best finish of 37th in the nine starts since winning the Byron Nelson Classic. Easily opposed with a player who is not on top of his game, but has made four of his last five cuts

Kevin Sutherland to beat Lee Janzen -111 @ Simon Bold
Janzen's game is seriously in the dumps. He has missed six of his last eight cuts and is easily opposed with a player who finished 5th in the Air Canada championship on his last outing

Bill Glasson to beat Rory Sabbatini +110 @ Camelot [2 units]
Sabbatini is having an awful season and it started with a runners-up spot in the season-opening Mercedes Championship! He has missed the cut as many times as he has made the weekend and is another big-hitter to oppose this week. Glasson may not be playing that well, but at least he is accurate and more suited to this course

Corey Pavin to beat Rory Sabbatini -110 @ Moneyplays [3 units]
Big contrast in length off the tee and the accuracy of Pavin is the requirement this week. A light schedule, but 14th in his last event, Pavin can keep the ball in play and make it to the weekend which should be enough

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

playing the following 3ball combo @ Sportingbet for 1/2 unit.

Stake 10
Possible Win 266.81
Tournament: Sluman v Waldorf v Allem
Selection: Sluman
Bet type: 3 Ball Bet
Odds: 11/10

Tournament: J Cook v Hoch v Huston
Selection: J Cook
Bet type: 3 Ball Bet
Odds: 7/4

Tournament: Flesch v Jobe v PU Johansson
Selection: Flesch
Bet type: 3 Ball Bet
Odds: 6/5

Tournament: Azinger v JL Lewis v Tryba
Selection: Azinger
Bet type: 3 Ball Bet
Odds: 11/10

Note Cook match goes off 5 hours after the other 3.If other 3 have won will hedge with 2 1/2 unit wager on Hoch.If a match pushes will wager 1 unit on Hoch.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 hole @ Camelot
Toledo -110 over Goydos

These that look to good to be true usually are.Toledo has 2.5 stroke adj scoring edge.
Been making 56% of cuts where Goydos is missing 60% of cuts including 9 out of last 12.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

update on previous note of Cascade going back to 20 cent lines.They are lining 72 holes @20 on Mondays and dropping to 15cent on Wednesdays which they are at now.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
anyone have an opinion on this John Riegger fellow?Four top 20's out of last 5,and @ 100/1 I've seen sicker dogs get well.

[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 09-19-2001).]

 

[buckeye]

DOGS,
Not that I have an opinion on Riegger, but it does sometimes astonish me how I could watch so much PGA Tour coverage and follow it so much, and yet some of these guys stay just under my radar and I don't realize how solid they have played sometimes. Every week I see some name that I wouldn't have guessed was hitting T20 finishes but when you look at it they have been playing better than a bunch of big names. Happens more late in the year, but it is funny. Partially due to TV coverage, The TIGER Woods 3 hours, but I often study the round by round scoring for dailies and they still don't register. Ride em till they drop I say! Hot no names usually have better value than cold superstars.

GL2U

 

[Stanley]

I'm pretty sure John Riegger has not been on any TV coverage despite his top-20 finishes!

Have similar position with Moira Dunn on LPGA Tour. Has done nothing all year until suddenly she grabs 3 top-3 finishes in four events before last week's break. Purple patch big time!

My take on her - and I would say the same would hold for Riegger given the similarities - is that last week's events will have burst any bubbles. You can hit a real hot streak and keep it going if you can remain focused and insulated from all the distractions around you. That is not possible after last week and to pick up a club again and try and re-discover that golden touch will be almost impossible IMO. The bubble has burst.

That's my take on a similar situation on the LPGA Tour

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

The distraction factor will be interesting Stan.Difficult to try an put an emotional tag on them along with other criteria.
I haven't been able to get into $plays all week.Anyone else having problems?

 

[Stanley]

I've been able to get into Moneyplays since yesterday. I still can't get into Cascade though. Strange world

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

one final 72 hole
Flesch -110 over Daly @ 5Dimes

Will forgo any 1st rounders. Believe its raining there now and not projected to quit till 3pm.

 

[Ian]

Back from hols and time for 2 quick outright bets for interest
Kaye 80/1
Sindelar 100/1

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Picking up 5 shares of Tway @ $2 each on WSEX inters.
Will update plays at cut.Cut line currently in question.

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Three of the six plays are decided at the cut and two are winners. Day beat Damron by three shots, Pavin beat Sabbatini by one shot, while Glasson lost to Sabbatini by three shots. All three remaining plays are ahead though: Flesch leads Daly by five, Lowery leads Daly by two and Sutherland leads Janzen by three. Could be a good week on the matchups, though the prospects on the outrights rest with Steve Lowery alone who is 7th. Furyk missed the cut by a shot and Verplank is nine shots off the pace.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

At the cut: 0-2 2 pending
Hoch/Singh loss by one (both miss cut)
Toledo/Goydos loss by 5
pending
Cook/Maruyama all square
Flesch/Daly up several

Outrights all make cut but have work to do.
Flesch hung in for a bit.

Note on "to good to be true match"
Toledo vs Goydos.
All Toledo needed was to bust 77 in 2nd rd which he has done in 91 of 94 previuos rounds this year putting chance of loss at 3% from prior rd history.Fires an 81