Pennsylvania Classic

[Ian]

There you go DTB - actually been busy buying and selling house.

Two prices out of line at Penn - Franco was 100/1 at Hills yesterday for a while and the other is the man you are all raving about - Len Mattiace - he's 80/1 at Intertops but win only.

 

[steved]

1 ew Barlow 100/1 (VChandler) 24th here in 2000, 7/29/mc/3 last four outings..50/1 in a few places..127th in money list...time to move up into safety zone Craig!!

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Jim Furyk to win 14/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sporting Odds, Paddy Power and Sportingbet
Not a particularly inspiring event and nor are the outright plays. Furyk had a poor 2nd round two years to miss the cut on this course. It was embarrassing as he had been one of the main figures promoting the first PGA Tour event in his home State for twenty years. After much better event last year, he should feature this time around at Waynesborough. Has hardly been outside the top-10 at any stage in his last three events and that is strong enough form against this field.

Chris DiMarco to win 20/1 e.w. Bet365 (available generally)
Was an easy 6-shot winner two years ago and has an impressive record in Pennsylvania throughout. He finished 11th and 8th in two Buy.com Tour events in this State and followed up his victory in 2000 with 11th last year, having been in contention throughout. Has yet to repeat his form (largely, his putting form) of the West Coast Swing, but he has missed just once cut all year (Sony Open in Hawaii) and he should be able to raise his game as he returns to the scene of his first PGA Tour victory.

Steve Flesch to win 30/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Retained this week despite further evidence on Sunday that he is a very unlikely winner of a Tour event. His history in this event is all too typical: 10th at the cut two years ago, he finished 61st; 2nd at the cut last year, he finished 22nd. But it does appear to be in decline. He has finished 4th, 6th, 17th and 10th in his last four events and while he continues to go backwards if he starts the final round in the top-10, he is playing as well now as he has done for two years.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Outrights 2 E/W for 1/2 unit to Win & Place
Hoch Sportingbet 40/1
Mattiace 66/1 @ 365

Got 2 more long ones I waiting for on Place wagers. Oly does not have them on roster so will look at 5dimes when they line em.

72 Holes
Beckman +100 over Sauers @ SB (ties lose)

 

[Clive]

Hoch a non-runner, DTB?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Haven't seen anything yet,Clive. No local paper from Paoli PA and trying to find anything in big papers in PA on golf with foots started is like looking for hens teeth.

 

[hoss]

Hoch is non-runner, as is (I believe) Sauers (sorry DTB - start again!), Hnatiuk, Azinger + Perez!!

Daly also doesn't go in Europe.

hoss

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Hoss Ive been through a dozen PA papers and couldn't find squat>

 

[Stanley]

DTB Check the PGATour.com site - the 'field' link under the page for the event. They are usually very good at updating the field, so if your players' not there ...

 

[milpalm]

Kaye, 2nd on this course in 2000 and has 4 top 10s this year. I got 66/1 earlier in the week.

Sluman 25/1 Bet365. Sluman has played well recently and had a top 20 finish here two years ago.

Franco 100/1 5 Dimes. Has shown glimpses of form in recent weeks. 12th in 2000. Worth a speculative punt at generous odds.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Stan. Have always waited for T times to dumb to have thought about field

Hoch out and Sauers out so that takes care of bulk of early wagers.

Outrights: Got two long ones to place @ 5dimes
Senden and Pampling both @ 20/1 and both have a lot in common.
Both are Aussies,Both break my cardinal rule in asking a player to do something he has never done as neither have a top 5 this year.
Both have made big strides thru course of year and trying to catch one peaking in weak field.
Senden has moved up in GIR's currently ranking 18th and does have 4 top 20's in last 8.
Pampling has continued to move up in putting stats(a premium on this course) and now ranks in top 25 in putting ave.
Both hit in a long way on this wide open course and both are great wind players and while I don't know what rest of weak brings in PA they have gust up to 20mph today.

72 hole match
Faxon -110 over McCarron
Faxon form bad McCarron's worse.Putting is key here.

P.S. While admittlinly dumb,I do know difference between (week) and (weak) :moon:

 

[steved]

Adding
1 ew Ogilvy 80/1 (VChandler)...6th last time out, and high in the putting stats.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 hole @ Cascade
Roberts +100 vs Hart

Like his flat stick here,8th place in 2000 on this course and 80% cut ratio this year.
Thought about taking him @ -110 vs Applyby too but age factor may have something to do with his recent regression in form.
He reeled off 4 straight cuts last year starting in Sept so will just opt for one play.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

5dimes just dropped a few
Will now go on Roberts over Appleby @ +110
and Flesch -112 over Appleby 1st rd on 1st out of box angle.

Find it odd they have him as fav over Appleby for 72 holes yet a dog in 1st rd??

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Stuart Appleby to beat J.J. Henry -123 @ Intertops
Expecting a decent week from Appleby who has finished in the top-25 in seven of his last twelve events (against fields much stronger than this week) and also last year at Laurel Valley. Henry has been playing well recently, but should struggle on his debut at Waynesborough. Good putting was paramount two years ago and Appleby has a big edge in this department. He ranks 31st in putting average vs. 181st for Henry and 57th in putts per round vs. 190th for Henry.

Stuart Appleby to beat Carlos Franco -125 @ Bet365
Franco is not a good putter either and he is not in the same form as Henry. He ranks 158th in putting average and 144th in putts per round. He did finish 12th in 2000, but he won on Tour that season and has not looked like winning again.

John Huston to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Five Dimes
Not expecting that good an event from Huston, maybe a repeat of last year's top-25 finish, but just look to oppose Franco whenever possible. Hard to ignore an 11-2 head-to-head record against Franco in the past year.

Kevin Sutherland to beat Ian Leggatt -110 @ Victor Chandler
Not the best of putters, but Sutherland is certainly good from tee to green and it can lead to worse putting stats than would otherwise be the case. In this course two years ago, he led the field in greens in regulation, so it was not that surprising that he finished 79th of the 80 that made the cut in the putts per round statistic. But having finished 28th and 4th in this event and 12th in his last outing, he should be able to secure another top-30 finish this week. Opposing Leggatt who has yet to play this course, missed the cut last year at Laurel Valley and lost to Sutherland in their last five common events.

Kevin Sutherland to beat Chris Smith -130 @ Olympic (available generally) [2 units[
Apart from a golden run of form that brought him three top-10 finishes in early summer, including victory at the Buick Classic, Smith has struggled to make the cut all year. With course experience and putting stats even worse than those of Sutherland, he should struggle to make the cut this week.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

YIKES!! 1st thing I did after opposing Appleby was open up Golf Magazine to page featuring article about his swing. Felt bad vibes then,now seeing Stan play on him is coup de grace. Maybe I will put small e/w wager on him lol


adding 72 holes @ 5 dimes
Huston -110 over Franco
Like Stans take on this match,hope I don't hex him.
Senden +105 over Herron
Just like this aussie this week

 

[kjls04202]

Sorry Stan but I think that Franco has shown improved form lately. Much like Greg Chalmers had before last weeks eventual near miss. He has reportedly been practising!!
Sure Franco's putting has been poor but everyone is entitled to a godly putting week. His greens in regulation stats are not too bad which is important here. I think that he must have a first rate each way chance.
There are quite a few on the borderline this week including many of the players you guys have already mentioned. Of the others I thought that Carl Paulson was a decent outsider each way. Again he needs a decent putting week. But he looks as if he is steadily improving.

 

[lostinamerica]

These guys caught my eye this week for 0.15* e.w. @ 5dimes:

Mattiace(50/1)
Roberts(60/1)

Montgomerie(33/1)
Immelman(35/1)
Fasth(66/1)
Levet(100/1)

Nelson(18/1)
B. Wadkins(55/1)

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 3 1st rd'ers @ WSEX all - 1/2 stroke,which I deem no worse than ties lose.

Mattiace +105 over Rollins
Beckman +115 over Franco
Sutherland -110 over Noblio

 

[steved]

adding..
0.5 ew (well more like 0.25 ew) Carter 150/1 (Blue Square)..Could not find a reason to back him, but then saw he shot low round (64) here in 2000...this is a just in case...but small stakes, big odds....