Perry Perspective: Apr 14 From BetWWTS

IE

Administrator
Forum Admin
Forum Member
Mar 15, 1999
95,440
223
63
Canadiens good value for Stanley Cup run

What?s the most important thing in hockey? The cup, of course.

In this case, we?re talking about the Stanley Cup, although the trophy?s fate is linked directly to Dominik Hasek?s groin. The Ottawa Senators goaltender has been on the shelf for the past two months after coming up gimpy during the 2006 Winter Games in Turin. The Senators have done fairly well in his absence ? Ray Emery has posted a .912 save percentage since taking over the No. 1 role ? but their recent 3-8 slide is enough to knock the Sens into a tie with Hasek?s previous club, the Detroit Red Wings, atop the Cup odds list at +350.

Hasek is, quite simply, one of the greatest goalies of all-time. He?s also a pain in the wallet for handicappers. With no official timetable for his return, the 41-year-old is taking his sweet time to recover while Emery fills in admirably. This type of injury is difficult to evaluate. It?s possible Hasek is merely playing mind games at this point; however, lingering groin problems were also cited in Hasek?s decision to leave the Red Wings in 2003-04.

Speaking of Detroit, their goaltending situation was in a shambles before the 2004-05 season was wiped out. Hasek retired after winning the Cup in 2003, but came back the next year even though the Wings had already picked up Curtis Joseph. Meanwhile, Manny Legace waited patiently for his turn to shine. He got it this year, and Legace is now a legitimate Vezina Trophy candidate at 35-8 with a .915 save percentage. With so many familiar faces from the 2003 Cup winners (and 1997-1998, for that matter), the Wings are primed for a trip to the finals.

But if they get that far, will they meet the Senators? Ottawa has a checkered playoff past, and this year the Senators look like they?ll have a minefield to negotiate before they can reach the Promised Land. They?re in a battle with the Carolina Hurricanes for the top seed, and there?s a chance the Sens could slip into second place. Whichever spot Ottawa occupies, it?s staring at a first-round matchup with one of four possible teams: Montreal, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Toronto. Those clubs are on a combined 27-10-3 tear as they come down the stretch. That also spells danger for Carolina (+700), one of the young teams on the rise that?s benefiting from the NHL?s offseason rule changes.

Of those four hot teams, the Canadiens and Lightning are likely to eke into the playoffs. They?re both listed as +3000 long shots; from a value perspective, the Habs are worth the attention of handicappers. Their season divides rather neatly into two parts: Before Jose, and After Jose. Montreal was 23-21-6 when former Hart Trophy winner Jose Theodore lost his starting job, eventually to be shipped to the Avalanche for fellow netminder David Aebischer. Cristobal Huet took over and has been nothing short of sensational as the Canadiens? new hero between the pipes. He leads the NHL with a sparkling .930 save percentage, and the Habs are 19-8-3 After Jose.

Also threatening to spoil the party for the Senators are the Rangers (+700), the Sabres (+1200), the Flyers (+1200) and the Devils (+2000). New York has the hot hand of Jaromir Jagr, who leads the NHL with 53 goals and 121 points, and the breakthrough goaltending of rookie Henrik Lundqvist and his .924 save percentage. But across the river, New Jersey may be even more dangerous on the heels of a nine-game winning streak that vaulted them into a tie with Philadelphia for the No. 5 seed in the East.

Detroit?s competition in the West includes Dallas (+600), Calgary (+800), Nashville (+3000), San Jose (+2000), Anaheim (+2000), Colorado (+2500) and Edmonton (+2500). The Predators are the longest shot of the postseason despite locking up the No. 4 seed in the West and home-ice advantage in the first round. Regular No. 1 goalie Tomas Vokoun is out for the rest of the year due to a blood condition, leaving Chris Mason to man the crease for the playoffs. That might be enough. Mason has a .910 save percentage and a pair of shutouts in 17 starts; in the ?new NHL,? that might be enough to hold the fort, provided top-tier players Steve Sullivan and Marek Zidlicky return from injury. And there?s always the Avalanche, who gambled and won that they?d avoid elimination and have Theodore ready for a run at the Cup. Mission accomplished.

---Perry

BetWWTS.com
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top