Perry Perspective: Feb 22 From BetWWTS

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Grizzlies snarling on defense

If the NBA season were to end today, the Phoenix Suns would be in trouble.

Not just because they would be without their leading scorer from last year, Amare Stoudemire, but because they?d likely have to face the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs.

The Grizzlies would be a scary team to face for one big reason, defense. The Griz are allowing the fewest points in the NBA at 87.7 ppg. That?s less than the defending NBA champion Spurs, who are second at 88.4 ppg, and the powerful Pistons, who are allowing the third-fewest at 89.7 ppg.

Such a stifling defense would make life very difficult for the offensive-minded Suns, who rely heavily on outscoring their opponents. The Suns are currently the highest-scoring team in the league averaging 107 ppg. At the same time, they are one of the most scored-upon teams allowing 100.3 ppg, sixth-most in the league.

Defense is what has been the key to the Spurs? and Pistons? success, and it could be for the Grizzlies as well, especially against a weaker defensive team in a short best-of-five series.

Leading the way for Memphis on defense has been forward-center Paul Gasol. The 7-foot Spaniard leads the team in rebounds averaging 9.3 per game, 6.6 of which are defensive boards. He also leads the Grizzlies in blocks with 2.0 per game.

In a little over 14 minutes during the All-Star game, Gasol had 12 rebounds, more than any other player.

Guard-forward Eddie Jones was picked up by the Grizzlies in an offseason trade that sent Antoine Walker, Jason Williams and James Posey to Miami. Most observers felt that the Heat were winners in the deal, but Jones, a 13-year veteran, has been a key defensive addition and leads the team in steals with 1.7 per game.

While the Grizzlies have not been lighting up the scoreboard, they haven?t been forced to, thanks to their dominating defense. Currently, Memphis is averaging just 89.9 ppg, second-fewest in the NBA. Nevertheless, they have a winning record of 29-23 straight up. Gasol leads the team in scoring with 19.9 ppg.

With a tight defense and low-scoring offense, the Grizzlies have understandably seen more games fall below the posted total this season. Currently, they?ve seen 31 of 52 games go UNDER (nearly 60 percent). At one point in December, Memphis had eight straight games dip below the total. Since then, oddsmakers have compensated by lowering the totals, and fewer are falling UNDER.

The Griz have had much more success keeping scores lower at home than on the road. In Memphis, just seven of 24 games have topped the total, whereas on the road the Griz are 14-14 on the OVER/UNDER.

Against the spread, the Griz have one of the best records in the NBA at 28-22-2, but again, most of their success has come at home where they are 14-9-1 ATS.

On Thursday, Memphis will travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a Southwest division battle (8:30 p.m. ET, FSN Southwest).

The game will be an important test for the Mavs, who have made a concerted effort to become more physical and defense-minded this season. Under the direction of coach Avery Johnson, the Mavs are allowing just 92.9 ppg this season. That?s down from 96.8 ppg last season and 100.8 two years ago.

As a result of those defensive improvements, Dallas is seeing more games fall below the total. Overall they are 23-27-2 on the O/U, and during their past 16 games, only four games have topped the total.

And how has the defense helped them? The Mavs have won 15 of their past 16 games and have the best record in the Western Conference (as of Tuesday).

Thursday?s game will be the fourth meeting of the season between the Mavs and the Grizz. Dallas won the past two, 81-80 and 90-83, both of which were in Memphis. The Mavs won both games as road dogs (1.5 and 3.5 points) and both games fell UNDER the total (180 and 179.5 points).

In the first meeting, the Grizzlies knocked off the Mavericks 112-92 as 7-point road dogs. The score went OVER the 185.5-point total.

--Perry

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