Perry Perspective: Jan 20
From
BetWWTS.com
Coaches under the microscope
When it comes to the business of predicting the outcome of NFL games, most of us use past performance as a guide.
For instance, if statistics show that a team has had difficulty stopping the run in the past, then that team is more than likely going to have trouble against a team that has run the ball well all season.
But we have to be careful not to put too much emphasis on past performance, since on any given Sunday, a team can rise to the occasion and beat what appears to be a much better team, on paper. This is what we saw last Sunday in Indianapolis.
One place where we perhaps put too much emphasis on past performance is coaching. We often assume that because a coach has led his team to a Super Bowl championship, he somehow has an advantage over a coach who has not.
Yet, every coach who has won a Super Bowl at one time did not have any experience winning a championship. In other words, guys like Mike Shanahan and Mike Holmgren didn?t always have Super Bowl rings.
It?s simple logic, but it?s something to keep in mind when the topic of playoff coaching experience is raised over the next three weeks. While we?re on the topic, let?s take a look at the experience of the four remaining coaches.
Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher has plenty of playoff experience, but has yet to win a Super Bowl. In 14 seasons on the sidelines, Cowher has led the Steelers to the post-season 10 times.
He has captured eight division titles, advanced to five AFC Championship games and made one Super Bowl appearance, in 1995-96 against the Dallas Cowboys. That year, Cowher, at 38, was the youngest head coach to lead his team to the Super Bowl.
With Neil O'Donnell at quarterback, the Steelers lost 27-17 to the Cowboys, who featured QB Troy Aikman, RB Emmitt Smith and WR Michael Irvin. Pittsburgh covered as 13.5-point dogs.
Cowher?s coaching counterpart in this week?s AFC Championship game is Mike Shanahan, who has two Super Bowl rings to his credit, 1997-98 and 1998-99. Both of those wins came with the help of one of the most talented quarterbacks in NFL history, John Elway.
Now in his 11th season as coach, Shanahan has led the Broncos to seven playoff appearances. Last weekend?s victory over the Patriots snapped a three-game playoff losing streak for Shanahan.
With the win, the Broncos maintained a perfect 9-0 record at home this season. Denver is listed as a 3-point favorite to remain unbeaten this Sunday when they host the Steelers, who are 8-2 SU (8-2 ATS) on the road.
We currently have Shanahan?s Broncos listed as a favorite to win the Super Bowl at +160; Pittsburgh is second at +250.
Over in the NFC Championship, Carolina Panthers coach John Fox is now in his fourth season on the sidelines. This is his second trip to the playoffs.
In his first year as coach, Fox led a team that had gone 1-15 the year before to a 7-9 record. The next year, the 11-5 Panthers earned a berth in the NFC Championship where they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 14-3 as 4-point road dogs.
In the Super Bowl, the Panthers were nipped 32-29 by the Patriots as 7-point dogs.
This year, with the win against the Giants in the Wild Card followed by last weekend?s victory over the Chicago Bears, Fox now has a playoff record of 5-1 SU.
Fox?s opponent on the sidelines this Sunday will be Mike Holmgren, who is in his seventh year as coach of the Seattle Seahawks.
This is the third consecutive year and fourth time overall Holmgren has led the Seahawks to the playoffs. Last weekend?s victory over Washington was his first playoff win as Seattle?s coach.
Before joining the Seahawks, Holmgren coached the Green Bay Packers for seven seasons, earning a Super Bowl ring in 1996-97 with the help of QB Brett Favre and DE Reggie White. While with the Packers, Holmgren was 9-5 in the playoffs.
With the win over the Redskins, the Seahawks maintained a perfect 9-0 record at home this season. Seattle is listed as a 3.5-point favorite to remain unbeaten this Sunday when they host the Panthers, who are 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) on the road.
We currently have Holmgren?s Seahawks listed at +250 win the Super Bowl; Carolina is the longshot at +300.
From
BetWWTS.com
Coaches under the microscope
When it comes to the business of predicting the outcome of NFL games, most of us use past performance as a guide.
For instance, if statistics show that a team has had difficulty stopping the run in the past, then that team is more than likely going to have trouble against a team that has run the ball well all season.
But we have to be careful not to put too much emphasis on past performance, since on any given Sunday, a team can rise to the occasion and beat what appears to be a much better team, on paper. This is what we saw last Sunday in Indianapolis.
One place where we perhaps put too much emphasis on past performance is coaching. We often assume that because a coach has led his team to a Super Bowl championship, he somehow has an advantage over a coach who has not.
Yet, every coach who has won a Super Bowl at one time did not have any experience winning a championship. In other words, guys like Mike Shanahan and Mike Holmgren didn?t always have Super Bowl rings.
It?s simple logic, but it?s something to keep in mind when the topic of playoff coaching experience is raised over the next three weeks. While we?re on the topic, let?s take a look at the experience of the four remaining coaches.
Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher has plenty of playoff experience, but has yet to win a Super Bowl. In 14 seasons on the sidelines, Cowher has led the Steelers to the post-season 10 times.
He has captured eight division titles, advanced to five AFC Championship games and made one Super Bowl appearance, in 1995-96 against the Dallas Cowboys. That year, Cowher, at 38, was the youngest head coach to lead his team to the Super Bowl.
With Neil O'Donnell at quarterback, the Steelers lost 27-17 to the Cowboys, who featured QB Troy Aikman, RB Emmitt Smith and WR Michael Irvin. Pittsburgh covered as 13.5-point dogs.
Cowher?s coaching counterpart in this week?s AFC Championship game is Mike Shanahan, who has two Super Bowl rings to his credit, 1997-98 and 1998-99. Both of those wins came with the help of one of the most talented quarterbacks in NFL history, John Elway.
Now in his 11th season as coach, Shanahan has led the Broncos to seven playoff appearances. Last weekend?s victory over the Patriots snapped a three-game playoff losing streak for Shanahan.
With the win, the Broncos maintained a perfect 9-0 record at home this season. Denver is listed as a 3-point favorite to remain unbeaten this Sunday when they host the Steelers, who are 8-2 SU (8-2 ATS) on the road.
We currently have Shanahan?s Broncos listed as a favorite to win the Super Bowl at +160; Pittsburgh is second at +250.
Over in the NFC Championship, Carolina Panthers coach John Fox is now in his fourth season on the sidelines. This is his second trip to the playoffs.
In his first year as coach, Fox led a team that had gone 1-15 the year before to a 7-9 record. The next year, the 11-5 Panthers earned a berth in the NFC Championship where they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 14-3 as 4-point road dogs.
In the Super Bowl, the Panthers were nipped 32-29 by the Patriots as 7-point dogs.
This year, with the win against the Giants in the Wild Card followed by last weekend?s victory over the Chicago Bears, Fox now has a playoff record of 5-1 SU.
Fox?s opponent on the sidelines this Sunday will be Mike Holmgren, who is in his seventh year as coach of the Seattle Seahawks.
This is the third consecutive year and fourth time overall Holmgren has led the Seahawks to the playoffs. Last weekend?s victory over Washington was his first playoff win as Seattle?s coach.
Before joining the Seahawks, Holmgren coached the Green Bay Packers for seven seasons, earning a Super Bowl ring in 1996-97 with the help of QB Brett Favre and DE Reggie White. While with the Packers, Holmgren was 9-5 in the playoffs.
With the win over the Redskins, the Seahawks maintained a perfect 9-0 record at home this season. Seattle is listed as a 3.5-point favorite to remain unbeaten this Sunday when they host the Panthers, who are 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) on the road.
We currently have Holmgren?s Seahawks listed at +250 win the Super Bowl; Carolina is the longshot at +300.
