Perry Perspective: Mar 1 From BetWWTS.com

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Clash of Texas titans

You could call the game a shootout since it will involve two teams from Texas who have nicknames that conjure up images of cowboys and the Wild West.

However, the impending showdown between the Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday night (9:30 p.m. ET, TNT) will likely be far from a shootout on the scoreboard. On the contrary, it will no doubt be a physical, low-scoring slugfest between the top two teams in the Western Conference.

The Mavericks head into Thursday?s game with the best record in the West (45-11 straight up) and a one-game lead over the defending NBA champion Spurs in the Southwest division.

The Mavs have been on fire of late having won 19 or their past 20 games including six straight. One of the keys to the team?s success has been defense, something Dallas coach Avery Johnson has been emphasizing all season.

For the past few years, the Mavericks have established themselves as an offensive powerhouse, but have lacked defensive prowess. The result has been excellent regular-season records but early exits from the playoffs.

Dallas has averaged 56 wins in the past five years but has advanced past the second round of the playoffs just once. The team has never been to the NBA Finals, let alone won a championship.

Meanwhile, the two teams that have won the title the past three years have been defensive juggernauts ? San Antonio and Detroit. Both teams continue to be dominant on defense and are among the top three in the NBA standings.

The Spurs are allowing the fewest number of points in the NBA at 87.9 ppg (as of Tuesday). The Pistons, who are first overall in the league, are allowing the third-fewest at 88.9.

The Mavericks are giving up the eighth-fewest points at 93.1 ppg, which is a solid improvement from last year (96.8 ppg) and a significant improvement from two seasons ago (100.8 ppg).

One of the leaders of the defensive brigade has been Dirk Nowitzki. The 7-foot power forward tops the team in defensive rebounds with 7.3 per game, 10th overall in the NBA.

Yet, Dallas hasn?t abandoned its ability to score. The Mavs are scoring an average of 100.3 ppg (tied for fifth overall). In addition to his defensive contributions, Nowitzki leads the team in scoring with an average of 25.5 ppg (ninth overall).


The combination of a strong offense and a stingy defense makes the Mavericks an intriguing team to consider in this year?s playoffs. Currently, Dallas is listed at +275 to win the Western Conference and +500 to win it all.

The Spurs, on the other hand, are much more skewed towards defense to the detriment of their offense. San Antonio is scoring just 94.9 ppg, 21st in the 30-team league.

Nevertheless, the Spurs are -160 favorites to win the conference and are +300 to repeat as champions. The Pistons are favorites to recapture the title at even odds.

With a tight defense and a low-scoring offense, the Spurs have seen the fewest number of games go OVER the posted total in the NBA (22 of 53 games). Nonetheless, oddsmakers have adjusted their lines downward as the season has progressed ? they are 5-5 on the OVER/UNDER in their past 10 games.

That said, most of San Antonio?s games that have topped the total have taken place on the road. At home, the Spurs continue to turn games into low-scoring affairs - only seven of 27 games (26 percent) have gone OVER at the AT&T Center.

The Mavs have also seen fewer games go OVER both overall (25 of 56) and on the road (11 of 26).

This will be the third meeting of the season between the Mavericks and the Spurs. The first two games took place in Dallas with the teams splitting wins.

The Mavs took the first game 103-84 as 2.5-point dogs with the score topping the 185-point total. The Spurs won the second game 92-90 as 2.5-point road favorites with the score dipping below the 187-point total.

The Mavericks are 28-26-2 ATS on the season; the Spurs are 26-29-1 ATS.

Other Thursday game:

In the first game of TNT?s Thursday night doubleheader, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers visit Chicago to take on the Bulls (7 p.m. ET).

Despite having lost four straight both straight up and against the spread (as of Tuesday), the Cavs are 32-25 SU (28-26-3 ATS) and sit in second in the Central.

The Bulls are last in the same division with a record of 24-31 SU. They also have the second-worst ATS record in the NBA at 24-31 ATS.


--Perry

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