WBC pitchers struggling
We?ve learned a lot of lessons from the World Baseball Classic. Unfortunately, not all of those lessons are right.
The primary fallacy is that the WBC winners from Japan proved that ?small ball? is the right way to play. This idea is not only incorrect, it borders on racist. Anybody who has seen Hideki Matsui in action should be well aware by now that there is plenty of power coming out of Japan; he wasn?t at the WBC, but his fellow countrymen cranked out 10 home runs in eight games. That, plus the power pitching of tournament MVP Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-0, 1.88 ERA), is how Japan won the Classic.
Now that we?re well into the first month of Major League Baseball action, there?s another WBC-related train of thought that appears to be heading straight off a bridge: pitchers like Esteban Loaiza and Bartolo Colon are struggling in April as a direct result of their participation in the Classic. Oakland Athletics manager Ken Macha said as much in the Contra Costa Times: ?There is concern with (Loaiza?s) velocity being down. There was some discussion about what exactly to do. The feeling is he pitched in the WBC and that?s contributed to his struggles.?
There is no question Loaiza is off to a sluggish start. He gave up five runs on 10 hits and five walks in 10 innings for Team Mexico. Now Loaiza is 0-2 for the A?s with a horrendous 11.42 ERA and 2.77 WHIP, getting knocked out before the fifth inning in each appearance and costing Oakland supporters 2.13 units. But there is nothing to suggest the Classic took anything away from Loaiza.
Seamheads will tell you right off the bat that 8.2 innings of work doesn?t represent much of a sample size for judging a starting pitcher. Those with long memories might also point to Loaiza?s up-and-down MLB history. He?s pitching for his seventh major league club in 11 years, after posting ERAs over 5.00 in six of those campaigns. But he also was a Cy Young contender for the Chicago White Sox in 2003 (21-9, 2.90 ERA), and earned himself a big payday with stats-minded Oakland by posting a healthy 39.4 VORP for the Washington Nationals last year.
As for Colon, he?s off to an 0-2 start after three games with a 7.07 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP, but that third game saw Colon give up just one earned run to the Baltimore Orioles in seven innings ? a game that the Los Angeles Angels would go on to lose 3-2. Loaiza could very well provide the same high level of performance in his third start, which is coming up Tuesday night at McAfee Coliseum against the Detroit Tigers; if he doesn?t, he probably won?t get a chance to build his sample size any further. ?? we have to get our starters deep into games,? Macha previously told the Contra Costa Times. ?That?s of vital importance. ...That?s what we signed him for. He?s a veteran guy. He should be able to go out and give us six innings even if he?s getting roughed up.?
Freddy Garcia is another WBC hurler who?s been under the microscope for his slow start: 2-1 after three starts, but with a 7.80 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. Like Colon, Garcia appears to be slowly rounding into form. His first start was horrendous; the next two saw Garcia give up a total of six earned runs on nine hits and eight walks in 11 innings. That?s not exactly a Cy Young-level beginning to the 2006 campaign, but it?s hardly reason to panic, let alone point fingers at the WBC. Other pitchers having a relatively slow April include Kelvim Escobar, Daniel Cabrera, Felix Rodriguez and Johan Santana.
Then there?s the matter of the WBC pitchers who are lighting up the major leagues thus far. Dontrelle Willis is his usual smoking self: 1.93 ERA after 18.2 innings. Erik Bedard is humming along with a 2.25 ERA after 20 innings. Even Joel Pineiro, who is trying to come back from injuries that have nearly derailed his career, has a solid 3.66 ERA after 19.2 innings. Should we assume they?re pitching this well because they got into game shape at the Classic? Or that they would be pitching even better now had they gone through their usual spring training regimen?
Until we have a sample size to suggest otherwise, the answer is neither. Handicappers trying to determine whether to support or fade Loaiza Tuesday night should remember this.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
We?ve learned a lot of lessons from the World Baseball Classic. Unfortunately, not all of those lessons are right.
The primary fallacy is that the WBC winners from Japan proved that ?small ball? is the right way to play. This idea is not only incorrect, it borders on racist. Anybody who has seen Hideki Matsui in action should be well aware by now that there is plenty of power coming out of Japan; he wasn?t at the WBC, but his fellow countrymen cranked out 10 home runs in eight games. That, plus the power pitching of tournament MVP Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-0, 1.88 ERA), is how Japan won the Classic.
Now that we?re well into the first month of Major League Baseball action, there?s another WBC-related train of thought that appears to be heading straight off a bridge: pitchers like Esteban Loaiza and Bartolo Colon are struggling in April as a direct result of their participation in the Classic. Oakland Athletics manager Ken Macha said as much in the Contra Costa Times: ?There is concern with (Loaiza?s) velocity being down. There was some discussion about what exactly to do. The feeling is he pitched in the WBC and that?s contributed to his struggles.?
There is no question Loaiza is off to a sluggish start. He gave up five runs on 10 hits and five walks in 10 innings for Team Mexico. Now Loaiza is 0-2 for the A?s with a horrendous 11.42 ERA and 2.77 WHIP, getting knocked out before the fifth inning in each appearance and costing Oakland supporters 2.13 units. But there is nothing to suggest the Classic took anything away from Loaiza.
Seamheads will tell you right off the bat that 8.2 innings of work doesn?t represent much of a sample size for judging a starting pitcher. Those with long memories might also point to Loaiza?s up-and-down MLB history. He?s pitching for his seventh major league club in 11 years, after posting ERAs over 5.00 in six of those campaigns. But he also was a Cy Young contender for the Chicago White Sox in 2003 (21-9, 2.90 ERA), and earned himself a big payday with stats-minded Oakland by posting a healthy 39.4 VORP for the Washington Nationals last year.
As for Colon, he?s off to an 0-2 start after three games with a 7.07 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP, but that third game saw Colon give up just one earned run to the Baltimore Orioles in seven innings ? a game that the Los Angeles Angels would go on to lose 3-2. Loaiza could very well provide the same high level of performance in his third start, which is coming up Tuesday night at McAfee Coliseum against the Detroit Tigers; if he doesn?t, he probably won?t get a chance to build his sample size any further. ?? we have to get our starters deep into games,? Macha previously told the Contra Costa Times. ?That?s of vital importance. ...That?s what we signed him for. He?s a veteran guy. He should be able to go out and give us six innings even if he?s getting roughed up.?
Freddy Garcia is another WBC hurler who?s been under the microscope for his slow start: 2-1 after three starts, but with a 7.80 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. Like Colon, Garcia appears to be slowly rounding into form. His first start was horrendous; the next two saw Garcia give up a total of six earned runs on nine hits and eight walks in 11 innings. That?s not exactly a Cy Young-level beginning to the 2006 campaign, but it?s hardly reason to panic, let alone point fingers at the WBC. Other pitchers having a relatively slow April include Kelvim Escobar, Daniel Cabrera, Felix Rodriguez and Johan Santana.
Then there?s the matter of the WBC pitchers who are lighting up the major leagues thus far. Dontrelle Willis is his usual smoking self: 1.93 ERA after 18.2 innings. Erik Bedard is humming along with a 2.25 ERA after 20 innings. Even Joel Pineiro, who is trying to come back from injuries that have nearly derailed his career, has a solid 3.66 ERA after 19.2 innings. Should we assume they?re pitching this well because they got into game shape at the Classic? Or that they would be pitching even better now had they gone through their usual spring training regimen?
Until we have a sample size to suggest otherwise, the answer is neither. Handicappers trying to determine whether to support or fade Loaiza Tuesday night should remember this.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
