Perry Perspective: MLB From BetWWTS

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Yankees still World Series faves

As Deep Throat told Bob Woodward in All the President?s Men, follow the money.

The team with the biggest payroll in Major League Baseball, the New York Yankees, is also the most vilified. They didn?t earn their nickname ?The Evil Empire? for nothing; owner George Steinbrenner has been at the center of controversy in the Big Apple ever since he bought the club in 1973, even earning himself a lifetime ban from then-commissioner Fay Vincent in 1990. Apparently, a lifetime lasts three years in the majors; Steinbrenner was reinstated in 1993, at which point he rededicated his stewardship to winning baseball games. His mammoth payrolls resulted in four World Series victories between 1996 and 2000.

Even after this year?s tepid 10-8 start, the Yankees remain the odds-on favorite to win another championship, thanks to their reported $198.7-million expenditure on player salaries. That?s over $78 million more than the second-most expensive team, the Boston Red Sox, who have burst out of the gate at 13-7 to lead the American League East Division. But Boston remains at +1000 on the World Series futures market, well behind the Yankees at +350.

This fascination with the Yankees and their All-Star lineup of hitters seems to fly in the face of conventional baseball wisdom. Ever since New York lost the 2001 World Series to the Arizona Diamondbacks, pundits have proclaimed that you cannot simply buy a championship. Some level of managerial skill certainly helps; Boston illustrated that in 2004 when wunderkind GM Theo Epstein finally led the Red Sox to their first championship since World War One. However, Epstein had plenty of money at his disposal; in contrast, Oakland A?s GM Billy Beane has made it to the playoffs in four of the last six seasons on a small budget, but has yet to win a pennant. The difference between Beane and his former prot?g?? Nothing but money, which is also reflected in the futures market: Oakland is behind Boston at +1300 to win the title.

Another disciple of the Beane method is getting a chance to show what he can do with a little extra pocket change. Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi spent the last four seasons rebuilding what used to be a bloated lineup of expensive, past-their-prime players into a lean, mean fighting machine. Then owner Ted Rogers, who recently bought SkyDome and rechristened it ?Rogers Centre? to help advertise his media empire, decided to bump the payroll from under $46 million (25th in the majors) to just under $72 million (16th overall). That money helped lure the likes of A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay and Bengie Molina to the Big Smoke. But it?s still less than half of what Steinbrenner is shelling out. Although the new-look Jays are level with the Yankees at 10-8, they?re still way down the odds list at +3000.

To find the teams with the shortest odds, follow the money. The Los Angeles Angels ($103.6 million), the Chicago White Sox ($102.9 million) and the New York Mets ($100.9 million) are the other three clubs with nine-figure payrolls. They?re also near the top of the World Series odds list at +1300, +450 and +500, respectively. The St. Louis Cardinals are also among the favorites at +700 on the strength of their $88.4 million payroll and their recent postseason success.

The A?s have been one of the few thrifty clubs to taste the playoffs. Are there any other ?value? teams available for bettors? The most tempting of the would-be contenders may be the Cleveland Indians. This is a team that was just 68-94 in 2003, the first full year of a rebuilding phase that gave many local fans (who saw their club make the postseason in six of the previous eight years) conniption fits. But just two seasons later, the Indians were 93-69 and within two games of a Wild Card berth.

Cleveland is loaded with young and, for now, inexpensive talent. The payroll is just $56.8 million, and the Tribe?s World Series odds of +1400 look enticing compared to the +1200 odds the Chicago Cubs are receiving. Ah, yes, those wacky Cubs. At 12-7 thus far, Chicago?s Northsiders look pretty good, especially without the services of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Derrek Lee. But 12-7 is only good for fourth place in the National League Central, behind the Houston Astros (+3000), the front-running Cincinnati Reds (+17500) and the Cardinals. Chicago hasn?t won the World Series since 1908. Bettors must think the team?s $94.8 million commitment to player salaries will reverse the curse. If not, the Cubs can always take the Steinbrenner route and spend more money. It sure beats the alternative ? Tampa Bay, we?re looking in your direction.

----Perry

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