May is Padres? month
What is it about the month of May that makes the San Diego Padres so merry?
I?m not easily swayed by gaudy statistics masquerading as viable trends. Chicago-based Latino pitchers are 6-1 against teams with colors in their names? Wonderful. I made that up, by the way, so don?t blindly play the Chicago White Sox in their upcoming series against the Toronto Blue Jays. But maybe there is something to San Diego?s success this month. The Padres were 22-6 last May, and they started off this month with seven straight wins to improve to 16-15 on the campaign.
Nope, I?m calling shenanigans on this ?trend.? First of all, two seasons does not a trend make; the Fathers were 13-14 in May 2004. Second, and more relevantly, all seven of San Diego?s victories were against teams that currently sport losing records: the San Francisco Giants, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs. Beating up on a Cubs team that is 5-11 since losing first-baseman Derrek Lee to injury is nothing to write home about.
That doesn?t mean San Diego isn?t playing some good baseball right now. And a strong May could, just as it did last year, be enough to get the Padres into the postseason in a wide-open National League West. Their schedule for the rest of the month doesn?t look too difficult. A three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers is on tap, followed by matchups against the Cubs, the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Seattle Mariners. Arizona was the only winning team of the bunch at 18-14 heading into Tuesday?s action.
But let?s not get too high on the Padres. San Diego was a playoff doormat last year, winning the division with just an 82-80 record and falling meekly to the St. Louis Cardinals in three straight at the NL Division Series. That ongoing mediocrity has the Padres at just +10000 on the World Series futures market. Only five other MLB teams have longer odds.
It?s debatable whether this year?s team is, in the short term, any better than the 2005 version. San Diego has been lousy at the plate with just a .665 OPS compared to .693 for their opponents. Some of that low production can be blamed on Petco Park, which had the lowest park factors in all the majors last year at .803 on runs and .750 on home runs. However, the Padres as a team had a .724 OPS in 2005. That?s still poor, but not nearly as anemic as what San Diego is doing in the batter?s box thus far.
The fact that San Diego has been able to tread water this year is actually testament to GM Kevin Towers, who is boldly rebuilding the Padres. His decision to trade Mark Loretta to the Boston Red Sox for Doug Mirabelli was roundly criticized, and perhaps deservedly so ? Mirabelli has since been dealt back to Boston for Josh Bard, Cla Meredith and cash. But the Loretta trade did open up a spot at second base for Josh Barfield, the son of Jesse and one of the better prospects in all of baseball. Barfield is already one of the top hitters on the team with a .420 slugging percentage. He?s also improved defensively, which was his one true blemish coming up in the minor leagues. As for Loretta, he?s dragging the Sox down with a .635 OPS, the worst performance of his 12-year career.
The Padres are having less luck so far with Adrian Gonzalez, who has been rushed into the starting lineup to replace the injured Ryan Klesko at first base. Gonzalez has limped out of the gate with a .607 OPS and has lost playing time recently to utility man Mark Bellhorn. But there?s no doubt that the Padres are all about pitching. Chris Young, the other prospect to come from Texas with Gonzalez in the Adam Eaton trade, has a sparkling 1.07 WHIP (ranking 10th in the NL). He joins Jake Peavy and Woody Williams to anchor the rotation; Chan Ho Park (1.25 WHIP) and Clay Hensley (1.39 WHIP) have been adequate as the club waits for Shawn Estes and his strained left elbow to return to the lineup.
Throw in some typically excellent relief work by Trevor Hoffman (nine strikeouts, two walks and just one earned run in 11 innings), and you have a Padres team with enough pitching to stay competitive while the position prospects get their feet wet. Just don?t let their winning ways in May fool you into thinking this is anything more than a .500-level club.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
What is it about the month of May that makes the San Diego Padres so merry?
I?m not easily swayed by gaudy statistics masquerading as viable trends. Chicago-based Latino pitchers are 6-1 against teams with colors in their names? Wonderful. I made that up, by the way, so don?t blindly play the Chicago White Sox in their upcoming series against the Toronto Blue Jays. But maybe there is something to San Diego?s success this month. The Padres were 22-6 last May, and they started off this month with seven straight wins to improve to 16-15 on the campaign.
Nope, I?m calling shenanigans on this ?trend.? First of all, two seasons does not a trend make; the Fathers were 13-14 in May 2004. Second, and more relevantly, all seven of San Diego?s victories were against teams that currently sport losing records: the San Francisco Giants, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs. Beating up on a Cubs team that is 5-11 since losing first-baseman Derrek Lee to injury is nothing to write home about.
That doesn?t mean San Diego isn?t playing some good baseball right now. And a strong May could, just as it did last year, be enough to get the Padres into the postseason in a wide-open National League West. Their schedule for the rest of the month doesn?t look too difficult. A three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers is on tap, followed by matchups against the Cubs, the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Seattle Mariners. Arizona was the only winning team of the bunch at 18-14 heading into Tuesday?s action.
But let?s not get too high on the Padres. San Diego was a playoff doormat last year, winning the division with just an 82-80 record and falling meekly to the St. Louis Cardinals in three straight at the NL Division Series. That ongoing mediocrity has the Padres at just +10000 on the World Series futures market. Only five other MLB teams have longer odds.
It?s debatable whether this year?s team is, in the short term, any better than the 2005 version. San Diego has been lousy at the plate with just a .665 OPS compared to .693 for their opponents. Some of that low production can be blamed on Petco Park, which had the lowest park factors in all the majors last year at .803 on runs and .750 on home runs. However, the Padres as a team had a .724 OPS in 2005. That?s still poor, but not nearly as anemic as what San Diego is doing in the batter?s box thus far.
The fact that San Diego has been able to tread water this year is actually testament to GM Kevin Towers, who is boldly rebuilding the Padres. His decision to trade Mark Loretta to the Boston Red Sox for Doug Mirabelli was roundly criticized, and perhaps deservedly so ? Mirabelli has since been dealt back to Boston for Josh Bard, Cla Meredith and cash. But the Loretta trade did open up a spot at second base for Josh Barfield, the son of Jesse and one of the better prospects in all of baseball. Barfield is already one of the top hitters on the team with a .420 slugging percentage. He?s also improved defensively, which was his one true blemish coming up in the minor leagues. As for Loretta, he?s dragging the Sox down with a .635 OPS, the worst performance of his 12-year career.
The Padres are having less luck so far with Adrian Gonzalez, who has been rushed into the starting lineup to replace the injured Ryan Klesko at first base. Gonzalez has limped out of the gate with a .607 OPS and has lost playing time recently to utility man Mark Bellhorn. But there?s no doubt that the Padres are all about pitching. Chris Young, the other prospect to come from Texas with Gonzalez in the Adam Eaton trade, has a sparkling 1.07 WHIP (ranking 10th in the NL). He joins Jake Peavy and Woody Williams to anchor the rotation; Chan Ho Park (1.25 WHIP) and Clay Hensley (1.39 WHIP) have been adequate as the club waits for Shawn Estes and his strained left elbow to return to the lineup.
Throw in some typically excellent relief work by Trevor Hoffman (nine strikeouts, two walks and just one earned run in 11 innings), and you have a Padres team with enough pitching to stay competitive while the position prospects get their feet wet. Just don?t let their winning ways in May fool you into thinking this is anything more than a .500-level club.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
