Perry Perspective: MLB From BetWWTS

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Yanks-Sox rubber match

Are you sick of hearing about the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox yet? Then you?re probably not into betting on sports.

Sharp handicappers never get tired of hype. The more people get emotional over a heated rivalry such as this one, the less rational they become. They make poor evaluations. Even Yankees owner George Steinbrenner falls victim to this behavior every once in a while. After Tuesday?s 14-3 loss to Boston as a ?138 home favorite, Steinbrenner vented some of his frustrations to local reporters. Third baseman Alex Rodriguez was apparently singled out for his two errors. Rodriguez wasn?t happy with his play, either, and didn?t appear too upset with Steinbrenner?s comments.

Rodriguez has been an easy target for criticism ever since he signed that 10-year, $252-million contract with the Texas Rangers after the 2000 season. All he?s done since then is win two American League MVP awards, a pair of Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers. But let?s face it: A-Rod could hit 100 home runs and find a cure for cancer, and people would still think he?s overpaid. When he fails (especially in the playoffs), jubilation ensues.

And then A-Rod bites back. He went 2-for-4 Wednesday with a home run, one of three Yankees to go deep off Curt Schilling as the Yankees took a 7-3 victory, finding the pay window as a ?120 chalk. The win sets up Thursday?s Game 3 as what could prove to be a pivotal rubber match when all is said and done. Boston is in a virtual tie with the Yankees atop the AL East Division, and both teams are hot, going a combined 9-1 between this series and the one they played earlier this month.

Johnny Damon has seen the Yanks-Sox rivalry from both sides. He?s performing nicely in his first tour of duty wearing pinstripes, posting a .835 OPS and stealing nine bases in 10 attempts. But Damon was just 0-for-10 against his former teammates until cracking the egg with an RBI single in Game 2. The man he replaced in center field, Bernie Williams, is batting a career-low .592 as a designated hitter; he also got his first hit off Boston this year in Game 2, scoring on Damon?s base hit.

The Red Sox batting order has seen even more changes this year. Kevin Youkilis is filling in admirably for injured leadoff hitter Coco Crisp, getting on base at a .415 rate. Mike Lowell, who was written off for dead after his weak 2005 with the Florida Marlins, has fired back with a career-best .965 OPS. Fenway Park clearly agrees with Lowell ? he has 13 doubles in 55 at-bats there, compared to six doubles in 60 at-bats on the road. Mark Loretta, on the other hand, is having a horrible time at the plate. Even after going 2-for-4 Wednesday, Loretta has a weak .656 OPS, the lowest production of his 12-year career.

Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is slated to take the mound for the Red Sox. The last time he faced New York was on May 1 at Fenway, leading Boston to a 7-3 victory when Yanks reliever Aaron Small self-destructed in a four-run eighth inning. Wakefield has held opponents to an effective .666 OPS thus far in 2006. However, Boston has won just three of his seven starts, creating a deficit of 2.05 units for Sox supporters. Lack of run support has the UNDER cashing in at a 5-2 clip in those games.

Supplying the opposition for Game 3 is Shawn Chacon. Unlike Wakefield, Chacon has been getting by with a little help from his friends ? specifically, 5.8 runs per game compared to 3.7 for Wakefield. Chacon?s unseemly 1.44 WHIP hasn?t stopped the Yankees from winning four of his five starts and earning 2.86 units. But Chacon has actually been on fire of late, holding opponents to just one run in each of his last three starts. The UNDER is 4-1 as a result.

The Yankees have been pegged as ?140 favorites in Thursday?s matchup, which is fairly consistent with the lines we saw in the first two games of the series. New York?s 1-2 relief punch of emerging set-up demon Scott Proctor (1.02 WHIP) and master closer Mariano Rivera (1.21 WHIP, but improving after a slow start) should be ready to go after throwing just 16 and 15 pitches respectively in Game 2. Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon and his microscopic 0.68 WHIP should also be good to go after tossing seven pitches in Wednesday?s losing effort.

First pitch at Yankee Stadium is set for 7:05 p.m. Eastern Time.

---Perry

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