Indians, Angels fading away
If you expected the Cleveland Indians to be a .500 club this year, raise your hand.
Congratulations, you?re rich ? provided, that is, you faded the Indians in every game of their 22-22 start to the 2006 campaign. Making a $100 bet on the opposition (either $100 on the underdogs or enough to win $100 on the favorites) in every game would have earned you a tasty $571 thus far. It would also have taken some serious intestinal fortitude, given that the Tribe was expected to contend for an American League pennant this year.
Cleveland isn?t the only surprise underperformer this season. The Los Angeles Angels are even worse, going 17-27 and costing their supporters 12.27 units ($1,227 on $100 bets). Is this a sign of things to come, or will the Indians and Angels get back on track and into the black?
Yes, and no. The Indians have plenty of room for improvement, especially in the rotation, but they also appear to have been snakebitten by bad luck. They?ve outscored the opposition 255-228 thus far, an output that, according to statistics churned out by the Baseball Prospectus, would normally translate to a record of around 24-20. These are known as ?first-order? wins and losses, based on a modified version of Bill James? pythagorean formula. The Angels, on the other hand, have been outscored 233-183, which leaves them with exactly 17 first-order wins. The numbers suggest that Los Angeles supporters are not unlucky, just the victims of bad baseball.
Starting pitching has definitely been a problem for the Indians. C.C. Sabathia has regained his old dominating form since coming off the 15-day DL, winning three of four games in May and posting a tiny 0.90 WHIP. But the wheels have fallen off this month for both Cliff Lee (1.66 WHIP) and Jason Johnson (2.52 WHIP). Johnson was an overlooked but consistent pitcher for both Baltimore and Detroit between 2001 and 2005. He might have his start skipped this week, since Cleveland had two extra days off scheduled for Monday and Thursday. If Johnson doesn?t respond well, he may lose his fifth spot in the rotation to 22-year-old rookie Fausto Carmona.
The way the Tribe lineup is performing, the team could bring back Bob Feller to pitch and still have a good shot at winning. Cleveland leads the majors in run scoring and is just behind the top-ranked Toronto Blue Jays with a .832 OPS. Travis Hafner and Casey Blake point the way, both hitting over 1.000 OPS. Grady Sizemore has overcome a slow start to hit a .973 OPS with a club-high seven home runs in May. It should only be a matter of time before the pitchers settle down and Cleveland makes some inroads in Detroit?s surprise lead in the AL Central.
The Angels don?t have the same cause for short-term optimism. They were hailed as a ?small ball? revelation when they won the World Series in 2002, an oversimplified analysis that ignored the power they got at the plate from Troy Glaus, Tim Salmon and Garrett Anderson. Now Glaus is in Toronto, Salmon is 37 and reduced to DH duties, and Anderson, who is struggling with a bad hamstring, has dropped below .800 OPS over the past three seasons.
Two years ago, it appeared the Angels lineup was going to enjoy a smooth transition with prospects Dallas McPherson and Casey Kotchman joining Chone Figgins on the big-league roster. Things haven?t worked out that way just yet. McPherson replaced Glaus as the starting third baseman in 2005, but hip and groin problems, combined with a lack of plate discipline, limited McPherson to 61 games and a .744 OPS. He?s getting another chance this year after the Edgardo Alfonzo experiment was ended last Friday with the veteran infielder?s release. Kotchman has been even worse, hitting just .436 OPS in what is supposed to be his first full year at first base. Robb Quinlan?s .618 OPS as Kotchman?s backup seems Ruthian by comparison.
The L.A. rotation has also fallen apart, although there is some hope on the horizon. Bartolo Colon, the reigning AL Cy Young Award holder, is expected to receive a minor-league assignment shortly as part of his comeback from an inflamed right shoulder. But his return date to major-league action remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Jeff Weaver has been a bust in his first season with the Angels. He?s posted a 1-7 record and a 1.64 WHIP over nine starts.
Things are likely to get better in Los Angeles once Colon returns; until then, the Angels look like a strong fade candidate ? most notably when they face the Indians to kick off the month of June.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
If you expected the Cleveland Indians to be a .500 club this year, raise your hand.
Congratulations, you?re rich ? provided, that is, you faded the Indians in every game of their 22-22 start to the 2006 campaign. Making a $100 bet on the opposition (either $100 on the underdogs or enough to win $100 on the favorites) in every game would have earned you a tasty $571 thus far. It would also have taken some serious intestinal fortitude, given that the Tribe was expected to contend for an American League pennant this year.
Cleveland isn?t the only surprise underperformer this season. The Los Angeles Angels are even worse, going 17-27 and costing their supporters 12.27 units ($1,227 on $100 bets). Is this a sign of things to come, or will the Indians and Angels get back on track and into the black?
Yes, and no. The Indians have plenty of room for improvement, especially in the rotation, but they also appear to have been snakebitten by bad luck. They?ve outscored the opposition 255-228 thus far, an output that, according to statistics churned out by the Baseball Prospectus, would normally translate to a record of around 24-20. These are known as ?first-order? wins and losses, based on a modified version of Bill James? pythagorean formula. The Angels, on the other hand, have been outscored 233-183, which leaves them with exactly 17 first-order wins. The numbers suggest that Los Angeles supporters are not unlucky, just the victims of bad baseball.
Starting pitching has definitely been a problem for the Indians. C.C. Sabathia has regained his old dominating form since coming off the 15-day DL, winning three of four games in May and posting a tiny 0.90 WHIP. But the wheels have fallen off this month for both Cliff Lee (1.66 WHIP) and Jason Johnson (2.52 WHIP). Johnson was an overlooked but consistent pitcher for both Baltimore and Detroit between 2001 and 2005. He might have his start skipped this week, since Cleveland had two extra days off scheduled for Monday and Thursday. If Johnson doesn?t respond well, he may lose his fifth spot in the rotation to 22-year-old rookie Fausto Carmona.
The way the Tribe lineup is performing, the team could bring back Bob Feller to pitch and still have a good shot at winning. Cleveland leads the majors in run scoring and is just behind the top-ranked Toronto Blue Jays with a .832 OPS. Travis Hafner and Casey Blake point the way, both hitting over 1.000 OPS. Grady Sizemore has overcome a slow start to hit a .973 OPS with a club-high seven home runs in May. It should only be a matter of time before the pitchers settle down and Cleveland makes some inroads in Detroit?s surprise lead in the AL Central.
The Angels don?t have the same cause for short-term optimism. They were hailed as a ?small ball? revelation when they won the World Series in 2002, an oversimplified analysis that ignored the power they got at the plate from Troy Glaus, Tim Salmon and Garrett Anderson. Now Glaus is in Toronto, Salmon is 37 and reduced to DH duties, and Anderson, who is struggling with a bad hamstring, has dropped below .800 OPS over the past three seasons.
Two years ago, it appeared the Angels lineup was going to enjoy a smooth transition with prospects Dallas McPherson and Casey Kotchman joining Chone Figgins on the big-league roster. Things haven?t worked out that way just yet. McPherson replaced Glaus as the starting third baseman in 2005, but hip and groin problems, combined with a lack of plate discipline, limited McPherson to 61 games and a .744 OPS. He?s getting another chance this year after the Edgardo Alfonzo experiment was ended last Friday with the veteran infielder?s release. Kotchman has been even worse, hitting just .436 OPS in what is supposed to be his first full year at first base. Robb Quinlan?s .618 OPS as Kotchman?s backup seems Ruthian by comparison.
The L.A. rotation has also fallen apart, although there is some hope on the horizon. Bartolo Colon, the reigning AL Cy Young Award holder, is expected to receive a minor-league assignment shortly as part of his comeback from an inflamed right shoulder. But his return date to major-league action remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Jeff Weaver has been a bust in his first season with the Angels. He?s posted a 1-7 record and a 1.64 WHIP over nine starts.
Things are likely to get better in Los Angeles once Colon returns; until then, the Angels look like a strong fade candidate ? most notably when they face the Indians to kick off the month of June.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
