How?s the old Johnson feeling?
Is this the end of the Big Unit?
The five-time Cy Young winner was anything but stellar this past Saturday, giving up eight runs to the New York Mets in six innings on the way to an 8-3 loss. That performance raised Johnson?s ERA to a career-high 5.25 and his deficit at the pay window to 2.3 units in 18 starts.
Yankees fans are praying for a different result Thursday when Johnson takes the mound against the Cleveland Indians. New York has fallen to four games behind the surging Boston Red Sox for the American League East Division lead, and just percentage points ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays. Third baseman Alex Rodriguez has been the local whipping boy of late (his .522 slugging percentage notwithstanding), but Johnson has taken his share of heat. Some of it may even be deserved.
At age 42, Johnson probably doesn?t have much tread remaining on that long left arm of his. But his struggles are beyond what anyone could have reasonably expected. Johnson?s PECOTA projections (compiled by Baseball Prospectus) suggested a darn good 2006 for the Big Unit: a 50-50 chance of posting an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.08. Those numbers would have been a shade better than last year?s; instead, Johnson has a WHIP of 1.31 to go along with his fat ERA. That?s comparable to Johnson?s injury-plagued 2003 campaign with the Arizona Diamondbacks. It?s also far worse than the worst-case scenario from his PECOTA forecast: a 10-percent chance of a 1.21 WHIP and a 4.20 ERA.
Johnson isn?t injured this year; at least, if he is, he?s not telling anyone. ?I felt like my stuff was there,? Johnson told the New York Times after he was shellacked by the Mets. ?I know I pitched bad, I know I gave up eight runs, but I felt better than what the line score indicates.? Johnson?s clearly not fazed by the Mets result. ?I feel like I?ve been pitching well for the last month,? he continued. ?This game wasn?t indicative of that, but you move on. I?m not going to lose any sleep over it.?
The numbers back up Johnson?s self-evaluation. In the month of June, Johnson had five starts, racking up an ERA of 3.69 and a commanding WHIP of 1.01. That looks a little more Unitarian. However, a closer look also reveals a lack of consistency. Only three of those starts were quality outings, and the Yanks went just 3-2 in those five games. It?s been that way nearly all season. No wonder nerves in the Big Apple are a bit frayed.
Cleveland is expected to counter with Cliff Lee. He?s won his last five decisions in a row to boost his record to 8-5, and Lee is comfortably in the black by a shade over three units. However, Lee is also one of the poster boys for the seamhead community and its fight against overvalued pitchers. Lee was able to go 18-5 last year with an ERA of 3.79. But the folks at BP have put his 2005 numbers through the washer and suggest that his level of performance would normally have generated a 17-10 record and a 4.18 ERA ? still good, but not a Cy Young contender.
Lee?s winning record this year does even more of an injustice to his performance. Lee has ballooned to a 4.69 ERA and a horrible 1.41 WHIP, but he?s also gotten the benefit of 5.88 runs per game in support (and 6.25 runs per game at Jacobs Field, where Thursday?s tilt takes place). The OVER, not coincidentally, is 7-2 in his last nine appearances. Note also that Lee?s PECOTA forecast for 2006 saw about a 40-percent chance that he?d rack up numbers like what we?re seeing.
Despite Lee?s power over smoke and mirrors, Cleveland is just 39-43 heading into Wednesday?s action. How is it that one of the trendy offseason picks to secure at least a Wild Card is 16 games out of first place in the AL Central? Again, wins and losses don?t tell the whole story. Cleveland has either saved up all its runs for Lee, or (much more likely) is just plain unlucky. The Tribe has outscored the opposition 464-410. That should, according to the fine folks at BP, translate to a record closer to 44-37. That would put Cleveland pretty close to the Yankees in terms of overall team quality.
Thursday?s tilt is a 7:05 p.m. Eastern start. YES Network and Sports Time Ohio have the television coverage.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
Is this the end of the Big Unit?
The five-time Cy Young winner was anything but stellar this past Saturday, giving up eight runs to the New York Mets in six innings on the way to an 8-3 loss. That performance raised Johnson?s ERA to a career-high 5.25 and his deficit at the pay window to 2.3 units in 18 starts.
Yankees fans are praying for a different result Thursday when Johnson takes the mound against the Cleveland Indians. New York has fallen to four games behind the surging Boston Red Sox for the American League East Division lead, and just percentage points ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays. Third baseman Alex Rodriguez has been the local whipping boy of late (his .522 slugging percentage notwithstanding), but Johnson has taken his share of heat. Some of it may even be deserved.
At age 42, Johnson probably doesn?t have much tread remaining on that long left arm of his. But his struggles are beyond what anyone could have reasonably expected. Johnson?s PECOTA projections (compiled by Baseball Prospectus) suggested a darn good 2006 for the Big Unit: a 50-50 chance of posting an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.08. Those numbers would have been a shade better than last year?s; instead, Johnson has a WHIP of 1.31 to go along with his fat ERA. That?s comparable to Johnson?s injury-plagued 2003 campaign with the Arizona Diamondbacks. It?s also far worse than the worst-case scenario from his PECOTA forecast: a 10-percent chance of a 1.21 WHIP and a 4.20 ERA.
Johnson isn?t injured this year; at least, if he is, he?s not telling anyone. ?I felt like my stuff was there,? Johnson told the New York Times after he was shellacked by the Mets. ?I know I pitched bad, I know I gave up eight runs, but I felt better than what the line score indicates.? Johnson?s clearly not fazed by the Mets result. ?I feel like I?ve been pitching well for the last month,? he continued. ?This game wasn?t indicative of that, but you move on. I?m not going to lose any sleep over it.?
The numbers back up Johnson?s self-evaluation. In the month of June, Johnson had five starts, racking up an ERA of 3.69 and a commanding WHIP of 1.01. That looks a little more Unitarian. However, a closer look also reveals a lack of consistency. Only three of those starts were quality outings, and the Yanks went just 3-2 in those five games. It?s been that way nearly all season. No wonder nerves in the Big Apple are a bit frayed.
Cleveland is expected to counter with Cliff Lee. He?s won his last five decisions in a row to boost his record to 8-5, and Lee is comfortably in the black by a shade over three units. However, Lee is also one of the poster boys for the seamhead community and its fight against overvalued pitchers. Lee was able to go 18-5 last year with an ERA of 3.79. But the folks at BP have put his 2005 numbers through the washer and suggest that his level of performance would normally have generated a 17-10 record and a 4.18 ERA ? still good, but not a Cy Young contender.
Lee?s winning record this year does even more of an injustice to his performance. Lee has ballooned to a 4.69 ERA and a horrible 1.41 WHIP, but he?s also gotten the benefit of 5.88 runs per game in support (and 6.25 runs per game at Jacobs Field, where Thursday?s tilt takes place). The OVER, not coincidentally, is 7-2 in his last nine appearances. Note also that Lee?s PECOTA forecast for 2006 saw about a 40-percent chance that he?d rack up numbers like what we?re seeing.
Despite Lee?s power over smoke and mirrors, Cleveland is just 39-43 heading into Wednesday?s action. How is it that one of the trendy offseason picks to secure at least a Wild Card is 16 games out of first place in the AL Central? Again, wins and losses don?t tell the whole story. Cleveland has either saved up all its runs for Lee, or (much more likely) is just plain unlucky. The Tribe has outscored the opposition 464-410. That should, according to the fine folks at BP, translate to a record closer to 44-37. That would put Cleveland pretty close to the Yankees in terms of overall team quality.
Thursday?s tilt is a 7:05 p.m. Eastern start. YES Network and Sports Time Ohio have the television coverage.
---Perry
BetWWTS.com
