Perry Perspective: NBA From BetWWTS

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New Jersey?s Jefferson Airplane

Is anybody going to give the Detroit Pistons a serious run at the Eastern Conference title?

One look at the disappointing Eastern semifinal between the New Jersey Nets and the Miami Heat suggests otherwise. The Nets had trouble dispatching the Indiana Pacers in the opening round, relying on the Peja Stojakovic injury and the otherworldly play of Vince Carter (his worst performance of the series was 25 points and five rebounds in Game 3). And the Heat nearly self-destructed against the Chicago Bulls before pulling out the series in six.

Miami?s problems continued in Monday?s Game 1 against the Nets. Shaquille O?Neal was limited to 29 minutes because of foul trouble, and Miami fell 100-88 as a 4 ?-point home favorite. That leaves New Jersey 4-1 straight up and a perfect 5-0 against the spread versus the Heat this season. But the line for Wednesday?s Game 2 has Miami laying a full seven points to the Nets.

That?s how important Richard Jefferson is to New Jersey. The third member of the Jason Kidd-Carter-Jefferson trio is often overshadowed by his more famous teammates; however, the Nets might not have even made the playoffs without the 19.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game Jefferson posted during the regular season. That?s the situation the Nets will likely face in Game 2; Jefferson is listed as doubtful after suffering a bruised bone in his right ankle during the third quarter of Monday?s matchup. The Nets were up by 17 points when Jefferson left the game. Miami closed to within nine points before finally giving up the ghost.

Jefferson has been enjoying the best campaign of his five-year career, cutting down on turnovers and improving his shooting touch in his first full season on the wing alongside Carter. If he cannot go Wednesday, the Nets may have to plug Lamond Murray into the starting lineup. Murray is nowhere near the defensive presence that Jefferson represents; he also scored just eight points on 2-for-10 shooting in Game 1. His 34 minutes of action marked just the sixth time this year that Murray has been asked to play more than 20 minutes.

For all the bluster about Miami being a viable championship contender, the Heat simply do not match up well against a healthy Nets squad. Antoine Walker does not have the defensive skills to contain Jefferson. O?Neal has been frustrated by the defense of Jason Collins, who is ably supported by Clifford Robinson ? just about the only useful player on New Jersey?s bench, although John Thomas also pitched in Monday against Shaq with five rebounds, a block and four personal fouls in 16 minutes. Only Dwyane Wade (25 points, five boards and three steals) was able to fly unfettered for Miami in Game 1.

That all changes if Jefferson is out of the picture. He provides the offensive balance to the pick-and-rolls run by Kidd and Carter, plays that have forced O?Neal out of his comfort zone. Without Jefferson, the Heat will be able to collapse defensively and make it much more difficult for Carter to get into the paint. That will also help O?Neal stay out of foul trouble. Carter may have to respond with a better shooting effort from the perimeter; he was just 0-for-3 from beyond the arc Sunday to fall to 9-for-36 in the postseason.

Jefferson?s injury, if it turns out to be serious, may save Pat Riley?s bacon. His offseason makeover of the Heat roster was designed to beat the Pistons, but it also fundamentally changed the team that was able to sweep the Nets during last year?s first-round series. O?Neal had the same trouble back then against Collins and Robinson, but Eddie Jones provided the defensive effort from the small forward position to help keep the Nets? vaunted transition offense from marching into the paint on a regular basis. Carter settled for too many outside shots and finished the series with a 36-percent field-goal success rate, well below his 45-percent clip thus far in the 2006 playoffs.

Riley?s other option, should Jefferson return in this series, is to shelve Walker in favor of James Posey. He may never have the same kind of offensive production he did two years ago with the Memphis Grizzlies before foot problems set in, but he is arguably the best defender in Miami?s backcourt. He came in Monday with seven minutes left in the third quarter and played the rest of the game. We could see even more of Posey in Game 2.

Wednesday?s tip-off is at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on TNT, followed by the L.A. Clippers visiting the Phoenix Suns at 10:30 p.m.

---Perry

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