Really, are the Tigers for real?
One of my earliest memories about the Detroit Tigers involves a comic book. And not a good one, either. This one was a Captain Marvel story where a talking tiger by the name of Tawky Tawny suited up for Detroit in a matchup against a team led by the evil Mr. Mind, who was some kind of alien worm bent on world domination. Not all that different from when they signed Juan Gonzalez, really.
This is how I will always think of the Tigers. And this is a cautionary tale to all you would-be handicappers out there: Whatever you think you used to think about baseball, it needs to be re-examined. Kids will make all kinds of wild associations with certain teams and carry those associations into adulthood. It could be the color of the uniform, or maybe those ridiculous stack-of-pancake hats the Pittsburgh Pirates used to wear, but this is how people start to love or hate a team. These things also have nothing to do with the final score. What does matter in Detroit in the year 2006 is how amazingly talented the Tigers appear to be after so many years of frustration.
The Tigers are way in front of the rest of the MLB pack at 75-36 heading into Monday?s action, a full nine wins ahead of both the New York Yankees and the New York Mets. Yet all three teams are listed at +300 on the World Series futures market. Does this make Detroit a good value? A close look at the statistics suggests so.
This is a Tigers team that lost an amazing 119 games in 2003. This year, they?re on pace to win well over 100. No other team in the history of MLB has enjoyed that kind of rapid turnaround. It would be perfectly understandable to assume that it?s being done with smoke and mirrors, but it?s not. These Tigers have easily the best rotation in the majors, as well as one of the Top 10 offenses. This is no fluke.
The rotation hasn?t just sprung up overnight. True, rookie Justin Verlander has grabbed much of the spotlight with his near-Cy Young performance (14-4, 2.79 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), and new addition Kenny Rogers has eaten up some innings on the way to an 11-5 record. But Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth were all there in Motown during the lean years, absorbing punishment and learning how to deal in the big leagues. Add them all up, and the Tigers have a Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) rating of 237.2 as compiled by Baseball Prospectus, miles ahead of the second-place San Francisco Giants at 154.8. As they say, pitching wins championships.
The more impressive turnaround with the Tigers has been in their batting order. There isn?t one particular superstar in the lineup who gives opposing pitchers nightmares, but there is also no particular weak spot outside of third baseman Brandon Inge, and even he is posting a career-high .471 slugging percentage on the strength of 20 home runs. As a unit, Detroit is seventh in the majors in OPS at .791, a shade ahead of the Mets and just behind the Yankees (Toronto leads the way at .832).
The Tigers also bring to the diamond one of the best relief corps in the majors. They?re ranked third in ERA at 3.42, but they?re tops in the big leagues with 40 saves (and just nine blown saves) and have the lowest batting average against at .226. These, of course, are not the statistical categories that are favored by today?s sharper handicappers; however, they still point to Detroit?s dominance in the pen. Middle relievers like Jamie Walker (0.85 WHIP) and Joel Zumaya (1.15 WHIP) have been stellar in support of closer Todd Jones (31 saves).
There?s little question that the Tigers will make the postseason. At 10 games ahead of the Chicago White Sox in the American League Central, Detroit is pegged at a 93.4-percent chance to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus, and a 98.6-percent chance to at least get the AL Wild Card. The Mets are also a virtual lock to make the playoffs, but the Yankees are a shade behind at 84 percent due to the strength of the Boston Red Sox in the AL East. That?s enough of a deterrent to make handicappers think twice about laying cash on the Yanks. As for the Tigers, imagine how difficult they?ll be once they tighten their already-awesome rotation in the playoffs ? just like the 2005 White Sox.
--Perry
BetWWTS.com
One of my earliest memories about the Detroit Tigers involves a comic book. And not a good one, either. This one was a Captain Marvel story where a talking tiger by the name of Tawky Tawny suited up for Detroit in a matchup against a team led by the evil Mr. Mind, who was some kind of alien worm bent on world domination. Not all that different from when they signed Juan Gonzalez, really.
This is how I will always think of the Tigers. And this is a cautionary tale to all you would-be handicappers out there: Whatever you think you used to think about baseball, it needs to be re-examined. Kids will make all kinds of wild associations with certain teams and carry those associations into adulthood. It could be the color of the uniform, or maybe those ridiculous stack-of-pancake hats the Pittsburgh Pirates used to wear, but this is how people start to love or hate a team. These things also have nothing to do with the final score. What does matter in Detroit in the year 2006 is how amazingly talented the Tigers appear to be after so many years of frustration.
The Tigers are way in front of the rest of the MLB pack at 75-36 heading into Monday?s action, a full nine wins ahead of both the New York Yankees and the New York Mets. Yet all three teams are listed at +300 on the World Series futures market. Does this make Detroit a good value? A close look at the statistics suggests so.
This is a Tigers team that lost an amazing 119 games in 2003. This year, they?re on pace to win well over 100. No other team in the history of MLB has enjoyed that kind of rapid turnaround. It would be perfectly understandable to assume that it?s being done with smoke and mirrors, but it?s not. These Tigers have easily the best rotation in the majors, as well as one of the Top 10 offenses. This is no fluke.
The rotation hasn?t just sprung up overnight. True, rookie Justin Verlander has grabbed much of the spotlight with his near-Cy Young performance (14-4, 2.79 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), and new addition Kenny Rogers has eaten up some innings on the way to an 11-5 record. But Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth were all there in Motown during the lean years, absorbing punishment and learning how to deal in the big leagues. Add them all up, and the Tigers have a Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) rating of 237.2 as compiled by Baseball Prospectus, miles ahead of the second-place San Francisco Giants at 154.8. As they say, pitching wins championships.
The more impressive turnaround with the Tigers has been in their batting order. There isn?t one particular superstar in the lineup who gives opposing pitchers nightmares, but there is also no particular weak spot outside of third baseman Brandon Inge, and even he is posting a career-high .471 slugging percentage on the strength of 20 home runs. As a unit, Detroit is seventh in the majors in OPS at .791, a shade ahead of the Mets and just behind the Yankees (Toronto leads the way at .832).
The Tigers also bring to the diamond one of the best relief corps in the majors. They?re ranked third in ERA at 3.42, but they?re tops in the big leagues with 40 saves (and just nine blown saves) and have the lowest batting average against at .226. These, of course, are not the statistical categories that are favored by today?s sharper handicappers; however, they still point to Detroit?s dominance in the pen. Middle relievers like Jamie Walker (0.85 WHIP) and Joel Zumaya (1.15 WHIP) have been stellar in support of closer Todd Jones (31 saves).
There?s little question that the Tigers will make the postseason. At 10 games ahead of the Chicago White Sox in the American League Central, Detroit is pegged at a 93.4-percent chance to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus, and a 98.6-percent chance to at least get the AL Wild Card. The Mets are also a virtual lock to make the playoffs, but the Yankees are a shade behind at 84 percent due to the strength of the Boston Red Sox in the AL East. That?s enough of a deterrent to make handicappers think twice about laying cash on the Yanks. As for the Tigers, imagine how difficult they?ll be once they tighten their already-awesome rotation in the playoffs ? just like the 2005 White Sox.
--Perry
BetWWTS.com
