World Cup underdogs
I thought about starting this column off by yelling ?GOAL!? in true ESPN Deportes fashion, typed with as many O?s as I could get away with. But that joke has been played out worse than the Worldwide Leader?s constant references to Scarface. So let?s just have a look at some of the better value picks in the first stage of the 2006 World Cup.
Sunday: USA
The Americans go into the World Cup ranked No. 5 in the world by FIFA (not that handicappers can rely on those rankings as an accurate measuring stick). But nobody is prepared to give the U.S. any respect on the world stage, primarily because of the lack of American soccer culture. This is a huge mistake and a tremendous opportunity for handicappers. Team USA is +300 to beat the tough Czech Republic team on Sunday. The Czechs are even money to win, while a draw is priced at +200.
Not that beating the Czechs will be easy. They are ranked No. 2 in the world, behind only Brazil. But they haven?t fared well against non-European opposition in recent years. Furthermore, striker Milan Baros (who plays for Aston Villa in the English Premier League) is in doubt for Sunday because of a strained foot tendon, and midfielder Pavel Nedved, the 2003 European Player of the Year from Juventus, may have hurt his knee Thursday in a collision during practice. The Czechs already have a weak offense; they simply cannot afford any injuries.
Sunday: Japan
Japan (+180) is a slight underdog to Australia (+160) on Sunday. Excuse me? Japan drew Brazil and beat Greece last summer at the Confederations Cup, which also took place in Germany. Perhaps these lines reflect the fact that sports gambling is legal in Australia, but tightly restricted in Japan.
There aren?t a lot of Japanese players to be found in the major soccer leagues in Europe, but the J-League is nothing to sneeze at. The up-and-coming Japanese made it to the second round when they co-hosted the 2002 World Cup. Only a heartbreaking 1-0 loss to Turkey prevented any further hometown parades.
Australia is a lightweight on the international soccer scene. They?re not a paperweight, though, thanks to the presence of a number of players of Croatian descent. But to give the Socceroos the nod over Japan (especially when Japan?s defense far outclasses the Aussies) doesn?t reflect the reality on the ground.
Monday: Croatia
OK, there is every chance that Croatia will lose to Brazil in this matchup. But it?s very difficult to pass up a chance to take the Croats at +700 to win. Brazil is very much overpriced at ?225 to beat a team that is far better than its No. 24 ranking. Croatia finished in third place at the 1998 World Cup, after all.
The thing that nobody seems to want to admit about Brazil is that their defense just isn?t that good. Brazil hasn?t always managed to get the right mix of offense and defense at the World Cup. In 1994, they were too defensive and nearly lost the final to Italy on penalties. This year is just the opposite. Croatia?s defense is strong enough to, in theory, stem the Brazilian tide and sneak away with a Cup-opening win. At the very least, a draw at +275 is squarely within the realm of possibility.
Tuesday: Ukraine
This is about as close as a handicapper can get to personally putting one into the back of the onion bag. What has Spain (-120 to win) ever done at the World Cup? More importantly, what are they capable of doing this year? True, they have three impressive names in goaltender Iker Casillas, defender Carles Puyol and striker Raul, but Raul is well past his prime, and there isn?t a lot of depth behind him.
Now consider Ukraine at +350 to win. They?re ranked just 45th in the world, three spots behind Australia. That?s ridiculous. Ukraine flies under the radar because the country was a Soviet Republic throughout much of the World Cup?s history ? this is the first time Ukraine will compete in the big show. Their attack, led by exquisite AC Milan striker Andriy Shevchenko (who is headed to Chelsea in a huge transfer deal), is one of the better units in the world. Their defense is just as good, and perhaps even a shade better than Spain?s. Anything can happen, but Ukraine, on paper, is the better team. They could go far in this tournament. Try the quarterfinals, or even better. A draw, by the way, would pay +220.
--Perry
BetWWTS.com
I thought about starting this column off by yelling ?GOAL!? in true ESPN Deportes fashion, typed with as many O?s as I could get away with. But that joke has been played out worse than the Worldwide Leader?s constant references to Scarface. So let?s just have a look at some of the better value picks in the first stage of the 2006 World Cup.
Sunday: USA
The Americans go into the World Cup ranked No. 5 in the world by FIFA (not that handicappers can rely on those rankings as an accurate measuring stick). But nobody is prepared to give the U.S. any respect on the world stage, primarily because of the lack of American soccer culture. This is a huge mistake and a tremendous opportunity for handicappers. Team USA is +300 to beat the tough Czech Republic team on Sunday. The Czechs are even money to win, while a draw is priced at +200.
Not that beating the Czechs will be easy. They are ranked No. 2 in the world, behind only Brazil. But they haven?t fared well against non-European opposition in recent years. Furthermore, striker Milan Baros (who plays for Aston Villa in the English Premier League) is in doubt for Sunday because of a strained foot tendon, and midfielder Pavel Nedved, the 2003 European Player of the Year from Juventus, may have hurt his knee Thursday in a collision during practice. The Czechs already have a weak offense; they simply cannot afford any injuries.
Sunday: Japan
Japan (+180) is a slight underdog to Australia (+160) on Sunday. Excuse me? Japan drew Brazil and beat Greece last summer at the Confederations Cup, which also took place in Germany. Perhaps these lines reflect the fact that sports gambling is legal in Australia, but tightly restricted in Japan.
There aren?t a lot of Japanese players to be found in the major soccer leagues in Europe, but the J-League is nothing to sneeze at. The up-and-coming Japanese made it to the second round when they co-hosted the 2002 World Cup. Only a heartbreaking 1-0 loss to Turkey prevented any further hometown parades.
Australia is a lightweight on the international soccer scene. They?re not a paperweight, though, thanks to the presence of a number of players of Croatian descent. But to give the Socceroos the nod over Japan (especially when Japan?s defense far outclasses the Aussies) doesn?t reflect the reality on the ground.
Monday: Croatia
OK, there is every chance that Croatia will lose to Brazil in this matchup. But it?s very difficult to pass up a chance to take the Croats at +700 to win. Brazil is very much overpriced at ?225 to beat a team that is far better than its No. 24 ranking. Croatia finished in third place at the 1998 World Cup, after all.
The thing that nobody seems to want to admit about Brazil is that their defense just isn?t that good. Brazil hasn?t always managed to get the right mix of offense and defense at the World Cup. In 1994, they were too defensive and nearly lost the final to Italy on penalties. This year is just the opposite. Croatia?s defense is strong enough to, in theory, stem the Brazilian tide and sneak away with a Cup-opening win. At the very least, a draw at +275 is squarely within the realm of possibility.
Tuesday: Ukraine
This is about as close as a handicapper can get to personally putting one into the back of the onion bag. What has Spain (-120 to win) ever done at the World Cup? More importantly, what are they capable of doing this year? True, they have three impressive names in goaltender Iker Casillas, defender Carles Puyol and striker Raul, but Raul is well past his prime, and there isn?t a lot of depth behind him.
Now consider Ukraine at +350 to win. They?re ranked just 45th in the world, three spots behind Australia. That?s ridiculous. Ukraine flies under the radar because the country was a Soviet Republic throughout much of the World Cup?s history ? this is the first time Ukraine will compete in the big show. Their attack, led by exquisite AC Milan striker Andriy Shevchenko (who is headed to Chelsea in a huge transfer deal), is one of the better units in the world. Their defense is just as good, and perhaps even a shade better than Spain?s. Anything can happen, but Ukraine, on paper, is the better team. They could go far in this tournament. Try the quarterfinals, or even better. A draw, by the way, would pay +220.
--Perry
BetWWTS.com
