Perry Perspective: World Cup From BetWWTS

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World Cup bandwagon jumping

Stop the madness!

Or don?t. Go ahead, World Cup betting public. Make Germany a sizeable favorite to beat Italy and advance to the finals. It?s only Italy, after all. And do the same for France against tiny Portugal. All the Portuguese have done is win 12 Cup matches in a row for their coach.

We?re at the point now in this tournament where any of the four remaining teams can win the coveted FIFA World Cup Trophy. They?ve all displayed excellent soccer skills and brilliant coaching. Which makes it all the more perplexing that any of these four teams can be considered a strong favorite.

Tuesday afternoon?s match sees Germany priced at +125 to win in regulation time (including stoppage time). Italy is +210 to make it to the finals, and a draw will also cost +210. The farther we get in this tournament, the fewer the goals and the tastier the ?draw? option becomes. Two of the matches in the Round of 16 went beyond stoppage time, then two more quarterfinals matches were decided by penalties, including Germany?s eye-opening win over Argentina.

The result against Italy could easily be the same. However, Argentina gave the Azzurri an object lesson in how not to play the Beautiful Game. The Argentines were agonizingly passive against Germany, who responded not by playing the attacking style that has served them so well up to this point, but by reverting to a defensive style and happily cruising into the penalty phase. Argentina?s failure to play its own game means that Germany has yet to be truly tested in this tournament.

Part of Argentina?s problem ? an error that was repeated by Brazil in its 1-0 quarterfinal loss to France ? was an overreliance on veteran players. The World Cup is the pinnacle of soccer, and there is always pressure on a coach to put in the biggest stars, past their prime or otherwise. German coach J?rgen Klinsmann was sharply criticized early on at home for assembling a team of young players culled almost entirely from Bundesliga teams rather than the English Premier League and other elite organizations. That criticism turned to praise after the young Germans collected eight goals in the three group stage matches, giving up only two.

France very nearly fell into the same veteran-laden trap. The core of their team is made up of players from the 1998 World Cup champions. They struggled during the group stage, drawing their first two matches before beating Togo to make it to the knockout round. Then we saw Les Bleus at their best. The underdog French dominated Spain and Brazil to reach the semis. Their veterans, especially Zinedine Zidane, played with renewed vigor, and their strategic defensive lockdown of Brazil was nothing short of outstanding. Goalkeeper Fabien Barthez only had to deal with one shot on goal that day.

But is that really enough to make France a +110 pick to beat Portugal (+275) on Wednesday in regulation plus stoppage time? Again, this is a Portuguese club that hasn?t lost a World Cup match for coach Luiz Felipe Scolari, or any match since the Euro 2004 final against Greece. And Scolari has been arguably the best tactician of all the Cup teams thus far. He physically punished the Netherlands in a goonfest victory, then prevented England from advancing despite missing midfielders Deco and Costinha after their red cards against the Dutch.

Scolari?s brilliance is masked somewhat by the popularity (and now, in England, infamy) of striker Cristiano Ronaldo. The man with the movie-star looks and the deft touch with the ball has been thrust even further into the spotlight thanks to his decisive penalty kick against England ? and his protestations to the referee after Manchester United teammate Wayne Rooney stepped on defender Ricardo Carvalho?s nether-regions. Rooney was handed a red card. The English press, of course, aimed its vitriol at Ronaldo. Reports suggest his tenure at Man U. is now over as a result. It would be an even bigger loss for English soccer if Ronaldo takes his game to Real Madrid or any other suitor outside the EPL.

Portugal has certainly found a way to get under the skin of its opponents. The sheer anger emanating from England and the Netherlands suggests the French will have to play it cooler than cool Wednesday in order to make it back to the Cup finals. This is where France?s veteran savvy will be at its most valuable. Could we be in for yet another penalty shootout? A +200 payday awaits those who choose correctly.



--Perry


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