PERRY?S PERSPECTIVE: TIGERS STILL BURNING BRIGHT
Are we really going to see a Detroit Tigers-New York Mets World Series?
That?s the way things are shaping up if you believe in the soothsaying power of the futures market. The Tigers are +200 favorites to win the American League pennant, a shade ahead of the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox, each at +250. The Mets, meanwhile, are firmly ensconced as +150 faves in the National League, well ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals at +350.
This isn?t quite the way things were supposed to happen. Yes, the Mets were one of the preseason favorites after their aggressive makeover, including the addition of Carlos Delgado to the heart of the batting order. But the Tigers? This was a team that lost 91 games last year and a franchise-record 119 games in 2003. What kind of smoke-and-mirrors act is this?
It?s no illusion. Detroit has what every team wants: pitching, and lots of it. The Tigers sport a 3.60 ERA, well ahead of the second-place Mets and their 4.06 ERA. And, no, it isn?t because of All-Star Game starter Kenny Rogers. He has the best win-loss record on the staff at 11-3 after the weekend, but his WHIP of 1.23 and his ERA of 3.97 are well behind one of the most potent 1-2 combos in the majors: Justin Verlander (1.15 WHIP, 2.77 ERA) and Jeremy Bonderman (1.16 WHIP, 3.53 ERA).
Verlander?s rise to the top of the rotation is one of the keys to Detroit?s success. The rookie from Old Dominion was expected to shine for the Tigers, but not this soon ? his PECOTA forecast from Baseball Prospectus gave Verlander a 10-percent chance of posting the kind of numbers he?s produced thus far. That?s sweet, sweet music for handicappers. Verlander has exceeded expectations and earned supporters 9.6 units over the course of his 19 starts.
Wednesday afternoon sees Verlander take the mound against C.C. Sabathia and the Cleveland Indians. These two AL Central foes are on opposite sides of the spectrum ? while Detroit is rolling, the Tribe is stumbling at 43-54 after the weekend, generating 18.6 units of red ink. Only the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates have treated bettors worse this season. Sabathia himself is responsible for over two units of that deficit, although he is pitching slightly better (1.23 WHIP, 3.73 ERA) than in his past couple of disappointing seasons.
Cleveland, like Detroit, is a young team trying to make the leap from rebuilding to contending. Except in Cleveland?s case, the hype came too soon. Last year?s Tribe went 93-69 to challenge for a postseason berth right down to the wire. But that team had Kevin Millwood in the rotation. We?ve beaten up the overvalued Cliff Lee in this space more than enough; Millwood (9-11) won nine fewer games than Lee, but was easily the best pitcher in the Cleveland rotation (1.22 WHIP and 2.86 ERA). Now he?s pitching for the Texas Rangers. His replacement, Paul Byrd, has a 1.35 WHIP and a 4.28 ERA. That?s not going to win any pennants anytime soon.
If the Tribe does the right thing and gets some young, live arms into the picture next year (Jeremy Sowers, come on down), this is a glorious rebound opportunity. The batting order is stacked for now and for the future. At .818 OPS, Cleveland is third in the majors behind the Toronto Blue Jays and the White Sox, and even a shade ahead of the vaunted Red Sox. It certainly doesn?t get much better than Travis Hafner and his 1.076 OPS; only Albert Pujols of St. Louis is hitting better at an astronomical 1.157. Also pounding the cover off the ball are Grady Sizemore (.909 OPS) and Casey Blake (.902 OPS).
That kind of pop might be enough to get up in Verlander?s grill Wednesday. But he wasn?t fazed when he faced the Tribe back in May, giving up just one run over seven innings in a 3-1 Detroit victory. The lone Cleveland run was a Sizemore solo shot. Ronnie Belliard had three of seven hits for the Tribe, but he injured his hamstring on July 19 and hasn?t played since. The Tigers may also be down a second baseman for this matchup: Placido Polanco was hit in the jaw by an Esteban Loaiza pitch Sunday; X-rays were negative and Polanco is listed as day-to-day.
First pitch at Jacobs Field is at 12:05 p.m. Eastern Time. The folks at ESPN will be on hand with national television coverage.
--PERRY
BETWWTS.COM
Are we really going to see a Detroit Tigers-New York Mets World Series?
That?s the way things are shaping up if you believe in the soothsaying power of the futures market. The Tigers are +200 favorites to win the American League pennant, a shade ahead of the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox, each at +250. The Mets, meanwhile, are firmly ensconced as +150 faves in the National League, well ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals at +350.
This isn?t quite the way things were supposed to happen. Yes, the Mets were one of the preseason favorites after their aggressive makeover, including the addition of Carlos Delgado to the heart of the batting order. But the Tigers? This was a team that lost 91 games last year and a franchise-record 119 games in 2003. What kind of smoke-and-mirrors act is this?
It?s no illusion. Detroit has what every team wants: pitching, and lots of it. The Tigers sport a 3.60 ERA, well ahead of the second-place Mets and their 4.06 ERA. And, no, it isn?t because of All-Star Game starter Kenny Rogers. He has the best win-loss record on the staff at 11-3 after the weekend, but his WHIP of 1.23 and his ERA of 3.97 are well behind one of the most potent 1-2 combos in the majors: Justin Verlander (1.15 WHIP, 2.77 ERA) and Jeremy Bonderman (1.16 WHIP, 3.53 ERA).
Verlander?s rise to the top of the rotation is one of the keys to Detroit?s success. The rookie from Old Dominion was expected to shine for the Tigers, but not this soon ? his PECOTA forecast from Baseball Prospectus gave Verlander a 10-percent chance of posting the kind of numbers he?s produced thus far. That?s sweet, sweet music for handicappers. Verlander has exceeded expectations and earned supporters 9.6 units over the course of his 19 starts.
Wednesday afternoon sees Verlander take the mound against C.C. Sabathia and the Cleveland Indians. These two AL Central foes are on opposite sides of the spectrum ? while Detroit is rolling, the Tribe is stumbling at 43-54 after the weekend, generating 18.6 units of red ink. Only the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates have treated bettors worse this season. Sabathia himself is responsible for over two units of that deficit, although he is pitching slightly better (1.23 WHIP, 3.73 ERA) than in his past couple of disappointing seasons.
Cleveland, like Detroit, is a young team trying to make the leap from rebuilding to contending. Except in Cleveland?s case, the hype came too soon. Last year?s Tribe went 93-69 to challenge for a postseason berth right down to the wire. But that team had Kevin Millwood in the rotation. We?ve beaten up the overvalued Cliff Lee in this space more than enough; Millwood (9-11) won nine fewer games than Lee, but was easily the best pitcher in the Cleveland rotation (1.22 WHIP and 2.86 ERA). Now he?s pitching for the Texas Rangers. His replacement, Paul Byrd, has a 1.35 WHIP and a 4.28 ERA. That?s not going to win any pennants anytime soon.
If the Tribe does the right thing and gets some young, live arms into the picture next year (Jeremy Sowers, come on down), this is a glorious rebound opportunity. The batting order is stacked for now and for the future. At .818 OPS, Cleveland is third in the majors behind the Toronto Blue Jays and the White Sox, and even a shade ahead of the vaunted Red Sox. It certainly doesn?t get much better than Travis Hafner and his 1.076 OPS; only Albert Pujols of St. Louis is hitting better at an astronomical 1.157. Also pounding the cover off the ball are Grady Sizemore (.909 OPS) and Casey Blake (.902 OPS).
That kind of pop might be enough to get up in Verlander?s grill Wednesday. But he wasn?t fazed when he faced the Tribe back in May, giving up just one run over seven innings in a 3-1 Detroit victory. The lone Cleveland run was a Sizemore solo shot. Ronnie Belliard had three of seven hits for the Tribe, but he injured his hamstring on July 19 and hasn?t played since. The Tigers may also be down a second baseman for this matchup: Placido Polanco was hit in the jaw by an Esteban Loaiza pitch Sunday; X-rays were negative and Polanco is listed as day-to-day.
First pitch at Jacobs Field is at 12:05 p.m. Eastern Time. The folks at ESPN will be on hand with national television coverage.
--PERRY
BETWWTS.COM
