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Battle with Broncos will prove whether Redskins are for real
They?re the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL.
The Washington Redskins get no respect, especially among the long-winded pundits on TV, and to a lesser degree oddsmakers like me.
Yet the undefeated Washington Redskins sit atop the NFC East with a 3-0 straight-up (SU) record, 2-1 against the spread (ATS).
Led by their stifling defense, the Skins have dumped the Bears, Cowboys and Seahawks respectively.
Through the first month of the season, Joe Gibbs? boys have allowed the fourth fewest point per game (tied with Pittsburgh) and have the fifth-ranked defense in the league, despite the limited play of three-time Pro Bowler LB LaVar Arrington.
On offense, after many had written him off as over-the-hill, quarterback Mark Brunell has been accurate and efficient as the Skins? starter. His numbers aren?t spectacular, but they?re no cause for alarm: an 84.8 QB rating puts him in the middle of the pack.
That?s a huge improvement over last year when he had one of the worst ratings among starters.
It?s worth noting that Brunell has tossed only two interceptions and has yet to record a fumble. He has obviously benefited from a much-improved offensive line which is giving him extra time to make plays.
The rejuvenated 35-year-old veteran has also taken advantage of a reliable target in wide receiver Santana Moss, who was acquired from the New York Jets in the offseason.
Brunell and Moss connected for two late fourth-quarter touchdowns in the Skins? 14-13 upset of the favored Cowboys (-6) on Monday night in Week 2.
Running back Clinton Portis has also been above average, gaining nearly 90 yards per game.
While things are looking up in Washington, the Redskins? early success has failed to convert many believers. The loudest non-believers are on TV, although as I alluded to earlier, the oddsmakers are not there yet either.
For this Sunday, we currently have the Skins listed as 7-point dogs for their visit to Mile High in Denver (4:15 p.m. ET, FOX). The total is pegged at 34.5.
Since we set our odds where we feel we can split most of our action, our line really reflects the lack of confidence Washington has among the betting public.
Why the lack of confidence? Well, many feel Washington has been lucky to go 3-0. They eked out a win with those two late TDs in Dallas. They then won in dramatic fashion last week against Seattle when rookie kicker Nick Novak, who had not attempted a field goal in the NFL until that day, booted a 39-yarder in overtime to seal the win, 20-17.
That winning kick came after Seattle kicker Josh Brown blew a 47-yard attempt by bouncing the ball off the left goalpost.
As the old saying goes, you have to be good to be lucky, and perhaps the Redskins are the real deal. But are they good enough to master the thin air of Mile High Stadium and beat the Denver Broncos?
At 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS), the Broncos lead the AFC West Division. Yet, statistically speaking they are no more impressive than the Redskins. Their defense ranks sixth overall (Skins rank fifth) and their offense is ranked 19th (Skins rank 14th).
And it?s not as if the Broncos have faced a lot stiffer competition. The teams they have beaten ? Jacksonville, Kansas City and San Diego ? are all 2-2 SU. The team they lost to was Miami, a 6-point home underdog.
So why the big spread? Part of it has to do with perception. If you?ve got guys on national TV continually saying the team isn?t that good, people start to believe it.
There is also the prevailing belief that the AFC is much more talented than the NFC. Because of this, there are those who feel the Broncos must be better than the Skins, even though Denver?s first four opponents are far from the class of the AFC.
The one factor that might give the Broncos a legitimate advantage is Denver?s thin air, which some say is difficult to adjust to. Whether or not that?s true, the numbers seem to suggest a strong home-field advantage for the Broncos.
Since 2001, Denver has an amazing 25-9 regular season record at Mile High. Because of their success at home, the Broncos have been favored in all but one of those 34 games.
That said, the amount they have been favored by has often been inflated when you consider Denver?s ATS record at home is only 15-17-2.
Is the number inflated this weekend? You be the judge.
Good luck you your bets.
https://secure.sininter.com/redir/redir.aspx?SiteID=1492&Action=CAMPAIGN&CampaignID=20418
Battle with Broncos will prove whether Redskins are for real
They?re the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL.
The Washington Redskins get no respect, especially among the long-winded pundits on TV, and to a lesser degree oddsmakers like me.
Yet the undefeated Washington Redskins sit atop the NFC East with a 3-0 straight-up (SU) record, 2-1 against the spread (ATS).
Led by their stifling defense, the Skins have dumped the Bears, Cowboys and Seahawks respectively.
Through the first month of the season, Joe Gibbs? boys have allowed the fourth fewest point per game (tied with Pittsburgh) and have the fifth-ranked defense in the league, despite the limited play of three-time Pro Bowler LB LaVar Arrington.
On offense, after many had written him off as over-the-hill, quarterback Mark Brunell has been accurate and efficient as the Skins? starter. His numbers aren?t spectacular, but they?re no cause for alarm: an 84.8 QB rating puts him in the middle of the pack.
That?s a huge improvement over last year when he had one of the worst ratings among starters.
It?s worth noting that Brunell has tossed only two interceptions and has yet to record a fumble. He has obviously benefited from a much-improved offensive line which is giving him extra time to make plays.
The rejuvenated 35-year-old veteran has also taken advantage of a reliable target in wide receiver Santana Moss, who was acquired from the New York Jets in the offseason.
Brunell and Moss connected for two late fourth-quarter touchdowns in the Skins? 14-13 upset of the favored Cowboys (-6) on Monday night in Week 2.
Running back Clinton Portis has also been above average, gaining nearly 90 yards per game.
While things are looking up in Washington, the Redskins? early success has failed to convert many believers. The loudest non-believers are on TV, although as I alluded to earlier, the oddsmakers are not there yet either.
For this Sunday, we currently have the Skins listed as 7-point dogs for their visit to Mile High in Denver (4:15 p.m. ET, FOX). The total is pegged at 34.5.
Since we set our odds where we feel we can split most of our action, our line really reflects the lack of confidence Washington has among the betting public.
Why the lack of confidence? Well, many feel Washington has been lucky to go 3-0. They eked out a win with those two late TDs in Dallas. They then won in dramatic fashion last week against Seattle when rookie kicker Nick Novak, who had not attempted a field goal in the NFL until that day, booted a 39-yarder in overtime to seal the win, 20-17.
That winning kick came after Seattle kicker Josh Brown blew a 47-yard attempt by bouncing the ball off the left goalpost.
As the old saying goes, you have to be good to be lucky, and perhaps the Redskins are the real deal. But are they good enough to master the thin air of Mile High Stadium and beat the Denver Broncos?
At 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS), the Broncos lead the AFC West Division. Yet, statistically speaking they are no more impressive than the Redskins. Their defense ranks sixth overall (Skins rank fifth) and their offense is ranked 19th (Skins rank 14th).
And it?s not as if the Broncos have faced a lot stiffer competition. The teams they have beaten ? Jacksonville, Kansas City and San Diego ? are all 2-2 SU. The team they lost to was Miami, a 6-point home underdog.
So why the big spread? Part of it has to do with perception. If you?ve got guys on national TV continually saying the team isn?t that good, people start to believe it.
There is also the prevailing belief that the AFC is much more talented than the NFC. Because of this, there are those who feel the Broncos must be better than the Skins, even though Denver?s first four opponents are far from the class of the AFC.
The one factor that might give the Broncos a legitimate advantage is Denver?s thin air, which some say is difficult to adjust to. Whether or not that?s true, the numbers seem to suggest a strong home-field advantage for the Broncos.
Since 2001, Denver has an amazing 25-9 regular season record at Mile High. Because of their success at home, the Broncos have been favored in all but one of those 34 games.
That said, the amount they have been favored by has often been inflated when you consider Denver?s ATS record at home is only 15-17-2.
Is the number inflated this weekend? You be the judge.
Good luck you your bets.
https://secure.sininter.com/redir/redir.aspx?SiteID=1492&Action=CAMPAIGN&CampaignID=20418
