You know it?s getting close. The hairs on the back of your neck are standing up. Your remote control thumb is twitching reflexively. You are ready for some football.
No other sport captures the American experience ? or the imagination of sports bettors ? like the NFL brand of pro football. Dynasties crumble, underdogs climb the ladder to success and the socialism of the salary cap creates a giant middle class where any team can win on any given Sunday. OK, maybe that last thing isn?t so American after all. But the United States is a land of boom and bust cycles, and so it is with football teams.
Handicappers who play the futures market know this. When it comes to betting on regular season win totals, the primary task is to identify which teams are on the rise and which teams are due for a rude awakening. The ones who wildly exceeded or failed to meet expectations in 2005 may be worth the most consideration. Here?s a look at some of those candidates.
Green Bay Packers (OVER 6, ?180)
The Packers were an unmitigated disaster last year at 4-12 straight up. Injuries were Green Bay?s critical undoing, although the front office also played a role by dismantling the club?s vaunted offensive line. The first problem should take care of itself; running backs Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport will be back, as will wide receiver Robert Ferguson. The second problem was addressed in the draft with the selections of Daryn Colledge from Boise State in Round 2 and Jason Spitz from Louisville in Round 3. Getting seven wins out of one of the weakest schedules in the NFL (only the Bears get off more easily) seems likely.
New York Giants (UNDER 9, ?140)
Word on the street suggests the Giants are overvalued after last year?s surprise 11-5 finish. Quarterback Eli Manning is at the heart of discussions. He posted a mediocre 75.9 QB rating and was especially bad during the second half of the season, throwing 12 interceptions to go with 11 touchdowns. Running back Tiki Barber is 31 years old, and the receiving corps isn?t known for its soft hands. The Giants did upgrade the defense considerably, but a tough sked (including two matchups with each of the Cowboys and Eagles) will make a winning season very difficult to achieve in Jersey.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (UNDER 8, ?115)
The Bucs, like the Giants, went 11-5 last year. They?re also going to be fortunate to get over the .500 mark this season. Only four of Tampa Bay?s games in 2005 were against teams that went on to make the postseason. This year, the Bucs have the second-toughest schedule in the NFL, behind only the New Orleans Saints. I like Chris Simms and his levelheaded approach to football, but his 81.4 QB rating isn?t going to remind anyone of his dad Phil. Don?t overlook the fact that several defensive coaches, including line coach Rod Marinelli, have moved on to greener pastures.
Tennessee Titans (OVER 5.5, +125)
The enigmatic Titans posted their second lousy season in a row, going 4-12 in 2005. Their reward: a fairly tough sked in 2006. But there is plenty of reason to think these Titans are undervalued now that QB Steve McNair has moved on to Baltimore. Billy Volek was highly regarded as his backup, posting an 86.9 QB rating in 24 games with Tennessee. So why the doom and gloom? People seem to be in a rush to anoint former Texas Longhorns QB Vince Young as the No. 1 man in the Volunteer State. That?s a bad idea and a half. Do you want to turn him into Michael Vick?
Buffalo Bills (UNDER 6.5, ?130)
This might be the only team in the NFL that should have been starting a rookie QB this season: Matt Leinart, or even Jay Cutler. But nooooooo. They chose safety Donte Whitner with the No. 8 pick in the draft. No offense to Whitner, who could develop into a gem, but he?s a safety. That?s one of the easiest positions to fill on the roster. Buffalo had far greater needs just about everywhere on the gridiron. Quarterback just happens to be the most obvious position, with J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb and Craig Nall waging a training camp battle. Nall was a third-stringer behind Favre in Green Bay, and he could win this three-way race to the bottom. Chalk up the Bills for four victories in 2006 ? they?re even uglier than the Sabres? new uniforms.
--Perry
BetWWTS.com
No other sport captures the American experience ? or the imagination of sports bettors ? like the NFL brand of pro football. Dynasties crumble, underdogs climb the ladder to success and the socialism of the salary cap creates a giant middle class where any team can win on any given Sunday. OK, maybe that last thing isn?t so American after all. But the United States is a land of boom and bust cycles, and so it is with football teams.
Handicappers who play the futures market know this. When it comes to betting on regular season win totals, the primary task is to identify which teams are on the rise and which teams are due for a rude awakening. The ones who wildly exceeded or failed to meet expectations in 2005 may be worth the most consideration. Here?s a look at some of those candidates.
Green Bay Packers (OVER 6, ?180)
The Packers were an unmitigated disaster last year at 4-12 straight up. Injuries were Green Bay?s critical undoing, although the front office also played a role by dismantling the club?s vaunted offensive line. The first problem should take care of itself; running backs Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport will be back, as will wide receiver Robert Ferguson. The second problem was addressed in the draft with the selections of Daryn Colledge from Boise State in Round 2 and Jason Spitz from Louisville in Round 3. Getting seven wins out of one of the weakest schedules in the NFL (only the Bears get off more easily) seems likely.
New York Giants (UNDER 9, ?140)
Word on the street suggests the Giants are overvalued after last year?s surprise 11-5 finish. Quarterback Eli Manning is at the heart of discussions. He posted a mediocre 75.9 QB rating and was especially bad during the second half of the season, throwing 12 interceptions to go with 11 touchdowns. Running back Tiki Barber is 31 years old, and the receiving corps isn?t known for its soft hands. The Giants did upgrade the defense considerably, but a tough sked (including two matchups with each of the Cowboys and Eagles) will make a winning season very difficult to achieve in Jersey.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (UNDER 8, ?115)
The Bucs, like the Giants, went 11-5 last year. They?re also going to be fortunate to get over the .500 mark this season. Only four of Tampa Bay?s games in 2005 were against teams that went on to make the postseason. This year, the Bucs have the second-toughest schedule in the NFL, behind only the New Orleans Saints. I like Chris Simms and his levelheaded approach to football, but his 81.4 QB rating isn?t going to remind anyone of his dad Phil. Don?t overlook the fact that several defensive coaches, including line coach Rod Marinelli, have moved on to greener pastures.
Tennessee Titans (OVER 5.5, +125)
The enigmatic Titans posted their second lousy season in a row, going 4-12 in 2005. Their reward: a fairly tough sked in 2006. But there is plenty of reason to think these Titans are undervalued now that QB Steve McNair has moved on to Baltimore. Billy Volek was highly regarded as his backup, posting an 86.9 QB rating in 24 games with Tennessee. So why the doom and gloom? People seem to be in a rush to anoint former Texas Longhorns QB Vince Young as the No. 1 man in the Volunteer State. That?s a bad idea and a half. Do you want to turn him into Michael Vick?
Buffalo Bills (UNDER 6.5, ?130)
This might be the only team in the NFL that should have been starting a rookie QB this season: Matt Leinart, or even Jay Cutler. But nooooooo. They chose safety Donte Whitner with the No. 8 pick in the draft. No offense to Whitner, who could develop into a gem, but he?s a safety. That?s one of the easiest positions to fill on the roster. Buffalo had far greater needs just about everywhere on the gridiron. Quarterback just happens to be the most obvious position, with J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb and Craig Nall waging a training camp battle. Nall was a third-stringer behind Favre in Green Bay, and he could win this three-way race to the bottom. Chalk up the Bills for four victories in 2006 ? they?re even uglier than the Sabres? new uniforms.
--Perry
BetWWTS.com
