Perth International

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (2pts):

Richard Bland to beat Nick Cullen -110 @ BetVictor
Backing Bland who has shown good form recently - top-20 finishes in three of his last five starts and rounds of 70 or better in all five of those starts. Cullen did finish 4th in the Western Australian PGA Championship, but this field is a big step up in quality and he has only achieved one other top-25 finish since the end of the previous Australasian Tour season.

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Ashley Hall to beat Andrew Dodt +100 @ Paddy Power
The pressure is on Dodt even though they both lie in 6th place after the opening round. He is the one who has had a very full schedule on the European Tour, but still sits only 139th in the Race to Dubai - he needs to increase his season's earnings by more than 50% just to make it into the top-115 and retain his Tour Card for 2013. To do so, he will need to finish inside the top-5 this week. But given that he has made just one cut in his last eleven start, it appears unlikely that he has the confidence in his game to be able to play well under three more days of pressure. Recent history also suggests that he will struggle - he has finished the 1st round in the top-10 on two previous occasions in the last two months ... both times he shot 76+ to miss the cut.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Van Pelt tb Molinari -130; Leaney tb Pavan -135; Pilkadaris tb Strange -130; Coles tb Sullivan -110]

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (6pts):

Bo Van Pelt to beat Jason Dufner +100 @ 5Dimes and Bet365 [also available @ SkyBet and Paddy Power]
I think this is a good spot for BVP - he is four shots off the lead in 2nd place and in the final group with a European Tour rookie who is only just inside the number to keep his Tour Card for 2013. He should be able to capitalise fully without taking the lead too early given the four-shot gap, plus it is the third round and not the final round. The other issue, which he has talked about several times in interview, is that he won in Malaysia last year - that victory clearly gave him a lot of confidence in his ability to win tournaments outside the U.S., hence he is the bookies' favourite for this event despite bein four shots off the pace.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Canizares tb Cooke -163; Dubuis tb Petersson -125; Chalmers tb Townsend -150; Johnston tb Borsheim -140]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Rhys Davies to beat Andre Stolz +138 @ Bet365 [available generally]
Small punt against Stolz in this round. He shot 68 to jump from 31st to 9th during the 3rd round, but this is an unusual position - he has recorded just one top-15 finish in 2012 and that was back in 2012 on one of the minor Australasian Tour events. Davies has not been in great form recently, but he has been in contention throughout this week, so should be more likely to hold onto his top-10 spot.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Canizares tb Howell +100]