Perth International

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (6pts):

Scott Jamieson to beat Wade Ormsby +110 @ 5Dimes
Opposing Ormsby at these odds. He hasn't had a top-30 finish in over four months and has broken par in just two of eight rounds around this course. In the same spell that Ormsby has failed to secure a top-30 finish, Jamieson has recorded four top-10 finishes and finished 5th on this course two years ago. That is more than enough to overcome any home advantage Ormsby may have in this matchup.

Edoardo Molinari to beat Geoff Ogilvy -105 @ 5Dimes
Opposing another Australian in this matchup, they may be home players, but neither are from Western Australia. Ogilvy showed decent form on the PGA Tour when he last played, but that was six weeks ago and he is making his debut on this course. Molinari did play here two years ago and finished 28th and he has been playing regularly recently, securing top-15 finishes in three of his last four starts. I'd price the Italian as the favourite in this matchup given those histories.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Oliver Fisher(66/1) e.w.
Steve Dartnall(100/0 e.w.
Marcus Fraser(30/1) e.w.
David Drysdale(200/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Charl Schwartzel to beat Victor Dubuisson -109 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet, Bet365 and Paddy Power]
Dubussion jumped 44 places into the top-10 with the 3rd-lowest round of the day today, so he is a go-against in the next round. Schwartzel has been much more consistent despite having a Thursday morning tee-time - players in that cohort have averaged 1.11 shots more over the first two rounds than players who started on Thursday afternoon. He is currently ahead of Dubuisson and should be further ahead given that imbalance in scoring conditions.

Michael Long to beat Brody Ninyette -120 @ 5Dimes
A matchup further down the leaderboard, but one which has been one-sided in the past: since the start of last year, Long has finished ahead of Ninyette in 14 of 17 common events. This is another matchup in which the selection was unfortunate to have a Thursday am tee-time and his opponent didn't, so Long should have been ahead of Ninyette by now. That should be remedied tomorrow.