PGA Championship Breakdown

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PGA Championship Breakdown
August 12, 2009
By Bodog

Even at a major tournament against the best golfers in the world, it?s still Tiger Woods versus the field.

Woods is the overwhelming 3-2 favorite (check Bodog Sports for the latest odds) to win the 2009 PGA Championship at Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska, Minn. Those are the same odds Woods carried into the AT&T National, the Buick Open, and the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, his last three non-majors. Woods won all three.

Now for the caveats: Phil Mickelson (22-1) has only just returned to action; the No. 2 player in the world spent six weeks at home attending to his wife and mother, both recovering from breast cancer surgery. Mickelson?s first week back on the job was at the WGC-Bridgestone, where he finished 19 strokes behind Woods in a tie for 58th place. Lefty deserves a mulligan for that one. His previous result was second place at the U.S. Open (Woods finished sixth), and Mickelson came in fifth at the Masters, where Woods again finished sixth.


Woods also has to fight off the occasionally brilliant Padraig Harrington, the defending PGA Championship winner who has been all over the map this summer. Harrington was in the mix at the WGC-Bridgestone until he triple-bogeyed the 16th hole on Sunday and settled for second place. Woods criticized Tour officials for putting both himself and Harrington ?on the clock? on the back nine, and Harrington admitted to feeling rushed at No. 16. The important thing for this week is that Harrington appears to have rediscovered his game just in time for the final major of the season.

Here?s how the top three favorites stack up for Hazeltine.

Tiger Woods

PGA Championship victories: 1999, 2000, 2006, 2007
2009 victories: 5 (Arnold Palmer Invitational, Memorial, AT&T National, Buick Open, WGC-Bridgestone Invitational)
2009 PGA Tour Money Ranking: No. 1 ($6.878 million)
2009 average score: 69.0

Phil Mickelson

PGA Championship victories: 2005
2009 victories: 2 (Northern Trust Open, WGC-CA Championship)
2009 PGA Tour Money Ranking: No. 4 ($3.855 million)
2009 average score: 69.6

Padraig Harrington

PGA Championship victories: 2008
2009 victories: none
2009 European Tour Money Ranking: No. 20 (?0.735 million)
2009 average score: 70.8

Woods certainly has the PGA Championship resume of a favorite, and his recent results speak for themselves. His hot streak has carried him to the top of the FedExCup points race:

1. Tiger Woods - 3,101
2. Steve Stricker - 2,155
3. Kenny Perry - 1,968
4. Zach Johnson - 1,948
5. Phil Mickelson - 1,629

The other four golfers in the Top 5 have barely moved an inch while Woods lays waste to the competition. Stricker (33-1) has the shortest odds of the group this week, although at 285.8 yards per drive, he might be a little short off the tee to make good at Hazeltine. Woods (297.3 yards) and Mickelson (298.7 yards) won?t have the same problem navigating the 7,678-yard, par-72 course. That?s 318 yards longer than when Rich Beem (250-1 this year) won the Championship at Hazeltine in 2002.

On the props market, Woods is available in 3-Ball betting at 20-33 versus his threesome partners Harrington (7-4) and Beem (8-1). Whichever golfer finishes the first round with the lowest score cashes in. Woods is also priced at ?400 to beat Mickelson (+300) in their head-to-head betting matchup for the entire tournament.

 

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PGA Championship Preview, Picks

PGA Championship Preview, Picks

PGA Championship Preview, Picks
August 12, 2009


The season?s final major commences on Thursday with the 91st PGA Championship taking place from Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska, Minnesota. Hazeltine is no stranger to majors as it is hosting its seventh (1966 U.S. Women's Open, 1970 U.S. Open, 1977 U.S. Women's Open, 1983 U.S. Senior Open, 1991 U.S. Open and 2002 PGA Championship). The PGA back in 2002 was won by Rich Beem which happened to be his first and only major victory.

The course has changed since then and quite a bit actually. In 2002, the yardage was 7,360 yards and back then that was pretty long. This year, it has been lengthened to 7,674 yards which makes it the longest course in major history. Three of the par fives are over 600 yards while half of the four par threes are over 200 yards. For the 2002 season, Hazeltine was the second hardest course of the 57 courses played and it would not be surprising to see that difficulty again.


The runner-up to Beem in 2002 was none other than Tiger Woods (+150) whose late Sunday charge came up one shot short. He is the overwhelming favorite again this week and that really should come as no surprise. He has won each of the last two weeks and he is obviously playing some of his best golf. He has the length to tame Hazeltine to go along with his shot making abilities. He is seeking his fifth PGA Championship.

I was on Hunter Mahan (+3000) last week at Firestone and even though he did not win, he certainly did not disappoint. His last start prior to that came at the Open Championship where he missed the cut but the time off helped as he registered his fourth top six in his last five events. He has missed only two cuts this year and has six top tens. He did miss the cut in last year?s PGA but that matters none now.

I was surprised to see Stewart Cink (+4000) with such high odds. He was the Open Champion and after taking a couple weeks off, he came back with a T6 last week at Firestone. He does have only two other top tens on the year but he is hot and he should not be overlooked. He is hitting the ball further the last few years than at any other time in his career and that will be needed here.

Angel Cabrera (+4000) is another surprise as he is having an exceptional season. He won the Masters and while he struggled at the U.S. Open, he was right in the thick of the Open Championship until a weekend struggle. He had a very quiet T4 last week at Firestone so he is playing at a high level now. He is ranked seventh on the PGA Tour in driving distance and that length will be beneficial here.

A strong sleeper pick is Chad Campbell (+8000) who was the PGA runner-up to Shaun Micheel back in 2003 at Oak Hill. He is not an extremely long driver of the ball but he is good enough to hit it a good ways and keep it in play. People seem to forget that Campbell was in the playoff at the Master with Cabrera and Kenny Perry. He slipped some after that but his T25 and T11 the last two weeks is reassuring.

We had the winner last week with Tiger (+150) and the safety valve kept us from going too much in the black.

Recommended plays for the PGA Championship

Tiger Woods (+150) 2 Units
Hunter Mahan (+3000) 1.5 Units
Stewart Cink (+4000) .5 Unit
Angel Cabrera (+4000) .5 Unit
Chad Campbell (+8000) .5 Unit